Wallskog, M., Bloom, N., Ohlmacher, S. W., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2026). Within-firm pay inequality and productivity. The Economic Journal (conditionally accepted, January 2026). Previously circulated as NBER Working Paper No. 32240.
Abstract: Combining confidential Census worker and firm data, we find three key results. First, employees at more productive firms earn higher pay at all earnings levels. Second, this pay-productivity relationship strengthens with seniority, doubling from an elasticity of 0.07 for pay on productivity for the median-paid employee to 0.15 for the top-paid employee. Consequently, more productive firms have higher within-firm inequality. Our data suggests this is driven by their greater adoption of aggressive performance-pay bonus and management schemes. Finally, the magnitude of this pay-performance slope suggests rising productivity can explain 40% of the rise in within-firm inequality since 1980.
Kamal, F., Sundaram, A., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2024). Family-Leave Mandates and Female Labor at U.S. Firms: Evidence from a Trade Shock. Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01436. Previously circulated as CES Working Paper No. 20-25.
In the news: LSE Blog, University of Auckland Blog
Abstract: We examine how the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) impacts the gender composition at U.S. firms experiencing a negative demand shock. Combining changes in Chinese imports across industries between 2000 and 2003 and a sharp regression discontinuity to identify FMLA status, we find that an increase in import competition decreases the share of female employment, earnings, and promotions at FMLA relative to non-FMLA firms. This effect is driven by women in prime childbearing ages and without college degrees; and is pronounced at firms with all male managers. These results suggest that job-protected leave mandates may exacerbate gender inequalities in response to adverse shocks.
Mulry, K., Tello-Trillo, C. J., Mule, T., & Keller, W. J. (2024). Comparisons of administrative record rosters to census self-responses and NRFU household member responses. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 40(1), 41–52.
Working Paper Number CES-23-08
Abstract: The 2020 US Census innovated by using administrative records (ARs) to enumerate some unresponded addresses. This aimed to cut Nonresponse Followup (NRFU) costs. Unexpected COVID-19 delays and postponed tax filing disrupted AR delivery, raising concerns about roster quality. We compared AR rosters to self-response and NRFU data to assess quality, aiding in the decision of their suitability for enumeration.
Tello, M., & Tello-Trillo, C. J. (2023). Preferential trade agreements and productivity: Evidence from Peru. Economía, 46(91), 22–38.
Abstract: This paper studies how reductions in output and input tariffs affect total factor productivity growth in Peruvian manufacturing firms. Using annual manufacturing survey data from 2003–2017 and tariff changes associated with preferential trade agreements with the United States, China, and the European Union, we show that lower output tariffs reduce productivity growth among non-exporters but increase it among exporters. In contrast, reductions in input tariffs raise productivity growth for all firms.
Bloom, N., & Tello-Trillo, C. J. (2016). Firms and development: Productivity and management. In Strategies for socio-economic development in Peru (pp. 123–145). Editorial Planeta.
https://www.planetadelibros.com.pe/libro-estrategias-para-el-desarrollo-economico-y-social-del-peru/217889
Tello, M., & Tello-Trillo, C. J. (2008). Barreras comerciales y su impacto en las exportaciones peruanas (1992–2002). Economía, 31(62), 77–107.
Abstract: This study examines the impact of trade barriers on Peruvian exports from 1992 to 2002, focusing on tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs), and technical obstacles to trade (TOTs) imposed by major destination countries. While Most Favored Nation (MFN) and Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) tariffs were minimal, the number and average of NTBs, particularly TOTs, remained high. Employing various specifications and estimation methods, the study finds robust evidence for a negative impact of NTBs and TOTs on export value, despite data limitations and potential biases. These findings suggest that trade negotiations focused solely on tariff reduction may not yield significant benefits for Peruvian exports unless they address NTBs, particularly TOTs.
Pierce, J. R., Schott, P. K., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2024). To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream [Working Paper No. w32438]. National Bureau of Economic Research. Latest version here. Under Review: Quarterly Journal of Economics (Nov, 2025)
Gao, Janet, Shan Ge, Lawrence Schmidt, and Cristina Tello-Trillo. "How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?" Working Paper Center for Economic Studies, CES-23-47. February 2025. Under Review: Review of Financial Studies (Nov, 2025)
Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Kathryn Bonney, Cory L. Breaux, Cathy Buffington, Steven J. Davis, Lucia S. Foster, Brian McKenzie, Keith Savage, and Cristina Tello-Trillo, "Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home," NBER Working Paper 33951 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3386/w33951.
"Family Penalty" with Kendall Houghton (U.S. Census Bureau)
"Managerial Incentives and Productivity" with Pamela Medina (Toronto).
Tello-Trillo, C., Schmidt, L., & Streiff, S. (2025). Matching Compustat Data to the Longitudinal Business Database, 1976–2020 (CES Working Paper No. 25-65). U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies.
2019. John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Robert Kulick & Javier Miranda & Veronika Penciakova & Cristina Tello-Trillo. "Firm-level Revenue Dataset," CES Technical Notes Series 19-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.