Kamal, F., Sundaram, A., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2024). Family-leave mandates and female labor at U.S. firms: Evidence from a trade shock. Review of Economic and Statistics. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01436
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We examine how the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) impacts the gender composition at U.S. firms experiencing a negative demand shock. Combining changes in Chinese imports across industries between 2000 and 2003 and a sharp regression discontinuity to identify FMLA status, we find that an increase in import competition decreases the share of female employment, earnings, and promotions at FMLA relative to non-FMLA firms. This effect is driven by women in prime childbearing ages and without college degrees; and is pronounced at firms with all male managers. These results suggest that job-protected leave mandates may exacerbate gender inequalities in response to adverse shocks.
Mulry, K., Tello-Trillo, C. J., Mule, T., & Keller, W. J. (2024). Comparisons of administrative record rosters to census self-responses and NRFU household member responses. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 41-52, 2024
Working Paper Number CES-23-08
The 2020 US Census innovated by using administrative records (ARs) to enumerate some unresponded addresses. This aimed to cut Nonresponse Followup (NRFU) costs. Unexpected COVID-19 delays and postponed tax filing disrupted AR delivery, raising concerns about roster quality. We compared AR rosters to self-response and NRFU data to assess quality, aiding in the decision of their suitability for enumeration.
This paper analyzes the impact of reducing output tariffs (i.e., domestic tariffs on import of final goods) and input tariffs (i.e., domestic tariffs on imports of intermediate goods) on total factor productivity growth of Peruvian manufacturing firms. Peru’s annual survey of manufacturing data from 2003–2017 is used to explore the reduction of tariffs during three preferential trade agreements: United States, China, and the European Union. Lower output tari˙s could decrease productivity by reducing firm’s market share or could increase productivity by inducing tougher import competition, while cheaper imported inputs can raise productivity via learning, variety, and quality effects. The results show that a decrease in output tariffs decreases Peruvian firms’ productivity growth for non-exporters (i.e., domestic firms producing goods that are also imported) while increasing productivity growth for exporters (i.e., domestic firms producing export goods). In contrast, a reduction in input tariffs increases firm productivity for all firms.
Bloom, N., & Tello-Trillo, C. J. (2016). Firms and development: Productivity and management. In Strategies for socio-economic development in Peru (pp. 123-145). Editorial Planeta.
https://www.planetadelibros.com.pe/libro-estrategias-para-el-desarrollo-economico-y-social-del-peru/217889
Tello, M., & Tello Trillo, C. J. (2008). Barreras comerciales y su impacto en las exportaciones peruanas (1992-2002). Economia, 31(62), 77-107.
This study examines the impact of trade barriers on Peruvian exports from 1992 to 2002, focusing on tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs), and technical obstacles to trade (TOTs) imposed by major destination countries. While Most Favored Nation (MFN) and Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) tariffs were minimal, the number and average of NTBs, particularly TOTs, remained high. Employing various specifications and estimation methods, the study finds robust evidence for a negative impact of NTBs and TOTs on export value, despite data limitations and potential biases. These findings suggest that trade negotiations focused solely on tariff reduction may not yield significant benefits for Peruvian exports unless they address NTBs, particularly TOTs.
Pierce, J. R., Schott, P. K., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2024). To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream [Working Paper No. w32438]. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Gao, Janet, Shan Ge, Lawrence Schmidt, and Cristina Tello-Trillo. "How Do Health Insurance Costs Affect Firm Labor Composition and Technology Investment?" Working Paper Center for Economic Studies, CES-23-47. February 2025. Under review: American Economic Review
Wallskog, M., Bloom, N., Ohlmacher, S. W., & Tello-Trillo, C. (2024). Within-firm pay inequality and productivity [Working Paper No. w32240]. National Bureau of Economic Research. Under Review: The Economic Journal
"Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home" with Jose Barrero (ITAM), Nicholas Bloom (Stanford), Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Catherine Buffington, Lucia Foster, Brian McKenzie, Keith Savage (U.S. Census Bureau) and Steven Davis (Stanford).
"Family Penalty" with Kendall Houghton (U.S. Census Bureau)
"Managerial Incentives and Productivity" with Pamela Medina (Toronto).
2020. Cristina Tello-Trillo & Sean Streiff. "Matching Compustat Data to the Business Register 1976 - 2016," CES Technical Notes Series 20-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
2019. John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Robert Kulick & Javier Miranda & Veronika Penciakova & Cristina Tello-Trillo. "Firm-level Revenue Dataset," CES Technical Notes Series 19-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.