Tanner Regan - Research

Abstract: To improve the cost-effectiveness of property tax administration, many governments in developing countries are turning to statistical procedures of property valuation. What are the economic implications of these procedures? With empirical evidence from Kampala, Uganda I study how the method of valuation impacts equity and revenue through effective tax rates. Valuation is never perfect, and discrepancies between true income and valuation result in effective tax rates at the individual property level that differ from the policy rate. I show generally that any assessment procedure that provides an unbiased prediction of property value will be regressive. I document that this regressivity is empirically important in Kampala; on average, the lowest-earning decile of landlords would face an effective tax rate that is higher than the policy rate, while the top decile would face a reduction. Furthermore, I develop a simple model of tax compliance to quantify how this regressivity in assessment will affect government revenues.

Construction Dynamics in Sites and Services Projects

with J.V. Henderson, F. Líbano-Monteiro, M. Manara, and G. Michaels.

Policy reports

Dynamics of greenfield development: Evidence from the "20,000 plots" project in Dar es Salaam,

with J.V. Henderson, F. Libano-Monteiro, M. Manara, G. Michaels,

International Growth Centre, May 2025.

[policy brief #1 (housing & neighbourhoods)] [policy brief #2 (public services)]

Public disclosure and property tax compliance: A field experiment in Kampala, Uganda,

with J. Ahabwe, P. Manwaring, J. Mutebi,

International Growth Centre, May 2023.

[policy brief]

Enhancing property tax in Kampala: Preliminary evidence from taxpayer consultations and administrative data,

with J. Ahabwe, H. Kikonyogo, P. Manwaring, R. Mugangaizi, J. Mutebi, D. Nuweabine,

International Growth Centre, Jan 2021.

[policy brief][blog post]

Enhancing property tax in Kampala: Successes, challenges, and next steps for increasing municipal revenue,

with P. Manwaring,

International Growth Centre, April 2020.

[policy brief][blog post]

Property taxes in Kampala: Some background information,

with P. Manwaring,

International Growth Centre, October 2019.

[policy note]