Methodologies

Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between bushfire operations and the frequency of firestorms. The change in firestorm frequency between 1881 and 1981 illustrates

system memory in the relationship between before and after. Prior to 1919 or between 0 and 38 on the horizontal axis, the graph is shaped like the tip of a cone. After 1919,

bushfire operations increasingly moved away from traditional practices and the graph

took on a cyclonic shape.This graph can be used to project trends. It plots “before” or

the year before on the horizontal axis against “after” or the year after i.e. at 0, 1881’s

data on the horizontal axis is plotted against 1882’s data on the vertical, 1882

(horizontal) against 1883 (vertical) etc… through to 100, which represents 1981. This measurement tool is known as a system of change and made it possible to forecast firestorms’ dramatic increase into the 21^st century.

Over the years of university and augmenting the dole with bushfire risk assessments forr Development Applications, I developed research tools to model operations. My research clarifies knowledge gaps, competing claims to knowledge and contradictions. Analysis using authoritative principles for establishing empirical validityi includes all relevant subject matter, often necessitating an interdisciplinary approach.

The rules for empirical validity enable me to assess the validity of findings from different fields to

inform research with cutting-edge and valid information. Fields used to improve the rigour of

analysis include bushfire science, meteorology, military studies (in particular situation awareness),

risk analysis, agent based modelling and the psychology of stress and cognition. I have studied

agent based modelling and borrowed a concept from one of its theorists, Paul Ormerod to model

systems of changeii in my PhD. My cyclone-shaped system of change model (below) is based on an

historic database of a century’s archival records.

i See Pagano, Robert R. (2003) Understanding Statistics in the Behavioural Sciences 8^th edn Belmont CA: Wadsworth Publishing; Strauss, Anselm L & Corbin, Juliet M (1998) Basics of Qualitative Research Techniques and Procedures for Developing Grounded Theory 2^nd edn United States of America: Sage; Bourdieu, Pierre; Chamboredon, Jean-Claude & Passeron, Jean-Claude (1968, 1991) The Craft of Sociology Epistemological Preliminaries Berlin/New York: Walter de Gruyter.

ii Ormerod, Paul (1994) The Death of Economics 1^st edn England: Faber & Faber pages 153-161.