Stephen Downes-Martin, PhD

+1 401-935-4808

Dr Stephen Downes-Martin is a Research Fellow at the US Naval War College and is an independent scholar and consultant addressing problems at the strategic, operational and tactical levels of warfare and business. He consults with and for a wide variety of government, military, aerospace, and commercial organizations in the US and internationally.

His experience covers a wide range of topics that include:
  • Assessment
  • Confrontation Analysis
  • Deception
  • Decision Support & Analysis
  • Deterrence & Escalation
  • Dilemma Analysis
  • Game Theory
  • Military Intelligence
  • Modeling & Simulation
  • Negotiation Analysis
  • Operational & Strategic Assessment
  • Risk Analysis
  • Systems Thinking
  • Voting Theory
  • Wargaming
Recent consulting activities for a range of DoD, Industry and Academic clients in the US and UK include Futures studies, Wargaming (strategic deterrence, effects of Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe on strategic stability, special operations in the Baltics), Teaching (wargaming, game theory, assessments methods), planning and running industry working groups and conferences on wargaming. A long term research project known as Puppet Mastery investigates how to manipulate decision support methods to deceive decision makers, how decision makers misuse such methods to deceive themselves, how to detect such attempts and protect decision makers from them.

Stephen deployed to Helmand Province Afghanistan spring 2010 in response to a by-name request to support Regional Command (South West) / I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) as the Commanding General’s Assessments Advisor, for which he was awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal. He deployed to ISAF HQ in Kabul spring 2012 in response to a by-name request to advise General John Allen’s Afghan Assessments Group.  In 2015 he was awarded a second Superior Civilian Service Medal for achievements that included being "routinely sought by name as the most credible authority to assess and offer solutions to challenging issues, and always delivering brilliant results ... in complex warfare environments".

He regularly participates in and contributes to the Annual Connections USConnections UK and Connections North Wargaming Conferences.

He has briefed and engaged with senior executives, Flag/General Officers, Officers, NCOs and Enlisted from organizations that include: I MEF HQ, II MEF HQ, AFRL/XPPW, ALSA, Australian Defense College, Canadian Forces College, CENTCOM Maritime Staff, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Afghanistan, ISAF Joint Command (IJC), Indian Navy, JFCOM, USAF JIOWC, USMC MAGTF STP, NWDC, Numbered Fleet Staffs, OPNAV, Singapore Government, SOCOM, SOCEUR, STRATCOM, UK MoD (DSTL).

Superior Civilian Service Award (Second Award) 6 Apr 2015

2004:    MA (with Distinction) National Security and Strategic Studies, Naval War College, US

1979:    PhD Theoretical Physics, King’s College London University, UK

1975:    Mathematics Tripos III / 2011 Master of Advanced Studies Mathematics, Cambridge University, UK

1974:    BSc (First Class Honors) Physics, London University, UK

Additional industrial and university courses include military history, military studies, government, strategy and policy, philosophy, theology, computer science, psychology, economics, game theory, and Shotokan karate.

Past Positions

2001 – 2015: Research Professor, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College
Stephen’s responsibilities at the Center for Naval Warfare Studies included assisting senior defense executives to define their operational and strategic problems; researching and wargaming those problems both individually and as part of a team; analysis and publication of research results; developing a wide range of collaborative projects with the military services, US government agencies, private firms, academic community, and allied countries, and teaching accredited courses in game theory, wargaming, critical thinking and assessment. He chaired and participated in Professional Conferences and Working Groups, taught students and faculty about research results applied to operational and strategic problems, and was regularly invited to teach critical thinking, operations assessment, and wargaming to various core course seminars and to the CNO’s Strategic Studies Group (SSG).

1991 – 2001: Independent Contractor
Stephen developed and delivered simulations, multi-criteria analysis tools, and facilitation to support senior executive decision-making in complex, high-risk and high-payoff situations. Clients included Nortel Networks, IBM Global Systems, Cisco Systems, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Loral, and John Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.

1992 – 1994: Project Scientist, David Sarnoff Research Center
Sarnoff was developing technologies to support rapid construction of distributed teams to respond to novel crises. Stephen was responsible for developing distributed collaboration systems, mission planning systems, gaming, and simulation systems to support civilian intelligence agencies, the U.S. Navy, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

1990 – 1991: Project Scientist, TASC
TASC wanted to develop business in the growing Distributed Interactive Simulation market. Stephen advised TASC on the insertion of their technologies into Government (DARPA and STRICOM) initiatives in this area.

1985 – 1990: Project Scientist, BBN Systems and Technologies
BBN was developing advanced human-in-the-loop combat training and planning simulation systems for the U.S. Army. Stephen developed artificial intelligence based models of human and organizational behavior to use in these systems. He designed, and led the team that deployed, the first semi-automated forces (SAF, CGF) component of the SIMNET distributed interactive simulation system. There is now an annual international “Computer Generated Forces” conference focused on these techniques and technologies, and the U.S. Military widely use these techniques in their current suite of systems.

1983 – 1984: Project Scientist, Carnegie-Mellon University (Computer Science Dept.)
The expert systems group at Carnegie-Mellon University’s (CMU) computer science department was developing rule-based systems for government and commercial clients. Stephen was responsible for researching and developing techniques for handling large quantities of conflicting and uncertain information for Navy and the Oil industry. CMU’s clients tested the systems developed by Stephen in operational environments.

1980 – 1983: Project Scientist, Scicon Ltd.
Scicon was developing its business in artificial intelligence based tools for the UK Ministry of Defence. Stephen was technical lead on tactical analysis and combat simulation projects introducing artificial intelligence approaches to new weapons systems, command and control, combat intelligence, and training systems.

1978 – 1980: Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships at the International Center for Theoretical Physics (Italy) & the Niels Bohr Institute (Denmark)
Stephen researched quantum gravity in multi-dimensional anti-commuting space-time.

Early 1971: Stockman, Bonrook Cattle Station, Northern Territories, Australia
Stephen’s responsibilities included rounding up cattle by horse in the Outback and breaking in cattle to make them safe to handle at auctions. He was hired by Dalgety (a large cattle broker in the Northern Territory at the time) to handle their unsafe animals at auction. Gambling at local horse races kept him in beer and meat pies.

Stephen Downes-Martin (Ed) et al
Wargaming the Far Future Working Group Report, Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army War College, Jul 2019 

Stephen Downes-Martin
In the Wargaming the Far Future Working Group Report, Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army War College, Jul 2019 

"How an Opponent Wargames is an Intelligence Collection Requirement"
Stephen Downes-Martin
Intelligence Community Forum, "Intelligence Support for Decision Makers", Mercyhurst University,  Jun 2019

"Swarm Gaming Approach to Organizing In-Stride Adjudication Games"
Stephen Downes-Martin
In-Stride Adjudication Working Group at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

"In-Stride Adjudication Working Group Report"
Stephen Downes-Martin, Merle Robinson et al
Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Stephen Downes-Martin (Ed) et al
Game Lab at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Stephen Downes-Martin (Ed) et al
Game Lab at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Stephen Downes-Martin et al
Working Group 2 Report, MORS Wargaming Special Meeting Oct 2017, Dec 2017

Stephen Downes-Martin, Timothy Wilkie
Working Group 3 Report, MORS Wargaming Special Meeting Oct 2016, Nov 2016

"Wargaming Pathologies: What is to be Done?"
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, LeMay Center Wargaming Institute, US Air War College, Aug 2016

"How Not to Not Analyse Wargames"
(and no, that is not a typographical error!)
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections UK Wargaming Conference, King's College London UK, Sep 2015

ALSA Working Group (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
NTTP 5-01.3, Aug 2015

Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University Washington DC, Jul 2015

Gerald Perryman et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Air Force Studies Board, National Research Council of the National Academies, Nov 2014

Stephen Downes-Martin
Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2014, Vol 67, No. 1, pp 31 – 40

Adjudication: The Diabolus in Machina of Wargaming”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2013, Vol 66, No. 3, pp 67 – 80

Stephen Downes-Martin
Operationalizing Cyber Strategies Workshop, US Naval War College, May 3, 2012

Stephen Downes-Martin
IO Sphere Journal, May 2012

Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2011 Autumn, pp. 103 – 125

“Assessments Process for Regional Command (South West)”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Report to Commanding General I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), Helmand Province, Afghanistan, May 2010

Stephen Downes-Martin
Round Table on Innovation of Strategic Gaming, National Defense University, Dec 15, 2009

“Game Move Analysis for DEGRE (Deterrence Escalation Game and Review) 2009 Wargame"
Stephen Downes-Martin
US Naval War College report to STRATCOM, Jul 2009 
Stephen Downes-Martin, Grant Staats (Eds)
Report to OPNAV N5 on MOEs for implementing the CS21 Maritime Strategy, Jan 2009

“Derivation of MOEs for Operational/Strategic Objectives Using System Thinking”
Stephen Downes-Martin
MORS Workshop on Analytic Tools for Deterrence and Policy Assessment, Feb 2008

Stephen Downes-Martin, Hank Brightman
Working Group 5 Report, MORS Workshop on Analytic Tools for Deterrence and Policy Assessment, Feb 2008
Stephen Downes-Martin
MORS Special Meeting on Wargaming and Analysis, Oct 2007

“Educational Wargaming at the United States Naval War College”
Stephen Downes-Martin et al.
Connections Wargaming Conference, May 2007

“Wargame Pathologies”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Briefing to the Headmark "Undersea Warfare in 2025" Wargame, Australian Command and Staff College, Nov 2005 
Shawn Weil et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
10th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2005

“Test Environment for FORCEnet Concepts”
Katrina See et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
10th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2005

“Transforming Naval Wargaming: A Framework for Operational-Level Wargaming”
Peter Perla et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
CNA Report CRM D0010807.A2/Final, Sep 2004

“Wargame Pathologies”
Christopher Weuve et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Keith Baker et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, Sep 2004

“Organizational Structure and Dynamic Information Awareness in Command Teams”
Keith Baker et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2004

“Pathologies of War Gaming and What to Do About It”
Stephen Downes-Martin et al.
Naval War College Briefing Feb 2004
Stephen Downes-Martin, Robert "Barney" Rubel, Christopher Weuve
Unified Course 04 Joint Concept Development Concept Wargame Final Report Nov 2003

Stephen Downes-Martin, Kenneth Beutel
Information Superiority Working Group, Jun 2002

“A Review of Organizational Warfare Activities”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for Advanced Telecommunications, Inc., Jun 1996

“A Survey of Human Behavior Representation Activities for Distributed Interactive Simulation”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, Nov 1995 

"Audit of Cocaine Pathfinder Model"
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for Advanced Telecommunications, Inc., Sep 1995

“An Overview of Business Process Reengineering”
Rick Bevilacqua et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Institute of Industrial Engineers Business Process Re-engineering Conference, Oct 1995

“Collaboration Systems”
Stephen Downes-Martin
National Information Display Laboratory Report, 1995

“Software Agent Technology”
Stephen Downes-Martin
National Information Display Laboratory Report, 1995

“Business Process Models as Software Agents”
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1994

“Distributed Interactive Collaboration for Education: An Extension of Distributed Interactive Simulation to the non-Military World”
Stephen Downes-Martin et al.
IEEE Dual-Use Technologies and Application Conference, May 1994

“Fast Futures Contingency Simulation: A ‘What If’ Tool for Exploring Alternative Plans”
Martin Czigler, Stephen Downes-Martin, Dimitri Panagos
Military, Government and Aerospace Simulation Conference, Society for Computer Simulation, Apr 1994

“ATM Softcopy Collaboration Network”
Stephen Downes-Martin, Paul Hashfield, Thomas Stiller
Symposium on Advanced Information Processing and Analysis, Intelligence Community, Mar 1994

“Intelligent Software Agents to Mediate Distributed Collaboration”
Stephen Downes-Martin, Martin Czigler, Dimitri Panagos
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1993

“Collaborative Distributed Simulation”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Third Conference on Computer Generated Forces and Behavioral Representation, STRICOM-DMSO, Mar 1993

“Integration of Higher Order, Analytic, and Closed Form Models into Distributed Interactive Simulation”
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1992

Stephen Downes-Martin
Institute for Defense Analyses Client Report IDA D-1109, Apr 1992

Stephen Downes-Martin
Appendix A of “Strawman Distributed Interactive Simulation Architecture Description Document Volume II Book II”, LORAL Document ADST/WDL/TR–92-003010, Mar 1992 and in “Summary Report: The Sixth DARPA/PMTRADE Workshop on Standards for the Interoperability of Defense Simulations. Volume II: Position Papers”, Institute for Simulation and Training Report IST-CR-92-2, Mar 1992

Stephen Downes-Martin, Brett Butler
Stephen Downes-Martin
Stephen Downes-Martin, Mark Long, Joanna Alexander
SPIE/IS&T Symposium on Electronic Imaging Science and Technology, Feb 1992

“Virtual Environment Debriefing System for Naval Pilots: Phase 1”
Mark Long, Stephen Downes-Martin, Joanna Alexander
SPIE/IS&T Symposium on Electronic Imaging Science and Technology, Feb 1992

“Managing Uncertainty in Time-Critical Plan Evaluation”
Stephen Downes-Martin., Stephen Deutsch, Glenn Abrett
International Journal of Man Machine Studies, Vol 36, 337-356, 1992
IJCAI Workshop on Symbolic Problem Solving in Noisy, Novel, and Uncertain Task Environments, Aug 1989

“Branch Simulation in a Synthetic Environment: A Policy Tool for Cross Cultural Negotiation”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Callaway Workshop Modeling, Simulation and Gaming for Restructuring the U.S. Armed Forces, Dec 1991

“Reaching an Understanding of Conventional Combat: Advanced Warfare Simulation Tools Use in Arms Control”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Joint NATO Warsaw Pact Conference on Urgent Problems of International Security and Methods of Strategic Stability Assessments, Moscow, Oct 1991

“Why Object-Oriented Methods are a Requirement for the Modeling, Simulation and Gaming of Warfare”
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, San Diego, Aug 1991

“The Combinatorics of Vehicle Level Wargaming for Senior Commanders”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Second DARPA/PMTRADE Behavioral Representation and Computer Generated Forces Symposium, May 1991

“What-If Combat Simulation Support for Military Planning”
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin, Scott Swarts
In Advanced Technology for Command and Control Systems Engineering, Andriole, S. (Ed), AFCEA International Press, 1990

“The SIMNET Protocols as a Paradigm for Interoperability of Warfare Simulations”
Stephen Downes-Martin
DARPA Workshop on Warfare Simulations Interoperability, 12 Sep 1990

“Two AI Languages for Simulation”
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin
Fourth AI and Simulation Workshop, IJCAI August 1989, Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation, Vol. 7:3, 229, Sep 1990

“Guided Planning and Plan Execution”
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin
AAAI Workshop on Automated Planning for Complex Domains, Aug 1990

“Replacing the Exercise Controller with the Enemy: The SIMNET Semi-Automated Forces Approach”
Stephen Downes-Martin
International Training Equipment Conference, UK, Apr 1990

"Semi-Automated Forces Concepts and Approach"
Stephen Downes-Martin
Appendix D of the "Panel Review of of the Semi-Automated Forces", IDA Document 661, Sep 1989

“Semi-Automated Forces: Combat Simulation for the Future”
Stephen Downes-Martin
57th MORS Symposium Jun 1989

Alton Gilbert,  John Robbins, Stephen Downes-Martin, Wilbur Payne
MORS MORIMOC II Symposium, Mar 1989

"Embedded training technology survey"
Stephen Downes-Martin, Harris, M., Kurland, L., & Massey D.
BBN Laboratories, Inc. Report 1986

Tank Tactics Grandmaster Background Notes”
Gary Bloedorn, Stephen Downes-Martin
DARPA Workshop on Planning and Problem Solving in Animate Systems, Jun 1985

“Ignorance, the Joker in the Pack”
Stephen Downes-Martin
Applications of Machine Intelligence to Defence Systems, UK MoD, Mar 1983 

Stephen Downes-Martin