Publications

Stephen Downes-Martin, PhD

stephen.downesmartin@gmail.com

+1 401-935-4808

Achieving Lethality in the Far Future
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections Online Wargaming Conference, Apr 2025

Some of my Idiosyncratic Views about Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin, interviewed by Robin Lobb
Micro-Summit on Simulation in Intelligence Education & Recruiting, Royal Canadian Military Institute, Feb 2025

Wargaming to Support Force Development
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections North Wargaming Conference, Canadian Forces Base Kingston, February 2025

Executed Deception Wargaming using Deterrence Gaming as a Model
Stephen Downes-Martin
pages 55—73 of the Wargaming Deception Working Group Final Report, Jan 2025

Deep Dive into Manipulating COA Comparison Matrices
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army Heritage and Education Center, June 2024

How to Sabotage your Wargame Organization to Further your Career
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army Heritage and Education Center, June 2024

Peter Perla Remembered -- The Science of Wargaming (mp4)
Stephen Downes-Martin
April 2023

Advanced Topics in Professional Wargaming for Game Designers and Directors
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference , National Defense University, Jun 2023

At the Intersection of Simulation and Wargaming: Standards and Concepts for Next Generation Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin, Thomas Holland, Farid Mamaghani, Charles Turnitsa, Tracy Johnson, Curt Blais,  Clyde Smithson
Simulation Innovation Workshop, Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization, 13-17 February 2023

How an Opponent Wargames is an Intelligence Collection Requirement (YouTube, PDF)
Stephen Downes-Martin
UK Defence Simulation Education & Training conference Jun 2023
I gave earlier versions of this presentation at:
    Connections Online Wargaming Conference, Apr 2023
    Intelligence Community Forum, "Intelligence Support for Decision Makers", Mercyhurst University,  Jun 2019
    Connections UK Wargaming Conference, King's College London UK, Sep 2014  

Wargaming Novel Concepts -- Is Red doing the same?  (YouTube, PDF)
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections Online Wargaming Conference, Apr 2023

Your COA Comparison Matrices: Done by Professionals or Arithmomaniacs?
Stephen Downes-Martin
International Wargaming Conference, Budapest Hungary, Oct 2022

Get Hired and Stay Hired as a Professional Wargamer
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, IDA, Jul 2022

Your Decision Matrices don't pass the "Giggle Test"
Stephen Downes-Martin
UK Defence Simulation Education & Training conference Jun 2022

Data Challenges for Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization Simulation Innovation Workshop Feb 2022

Unethical Professional Wargaming Working Group Report
Stephen Downes-Martin (Working Group Chair & Editor)
Connections US Wargaming Conference, US CGSC, 2021

Exploit Group Dynamics to Corrupt a Professional Wargame
Stephen Downes-Martin
In the Unethical Professional Wargaming Working Group Report, pp 78-95, Sep 13, 2021

Distributed Wargaming Working Group Report
Stephen Downes-Martin (Working Group Chair & Editor)
Simulation and Wargaming Standing Study Group of the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization, Aug 23, 2021

Hosting a Distributed Professional Seminar Wargame using Google and Zapier
Stephen Downes-Martin
In the Distributed Wargaming Working Group Report, pp 101-128, Aug 23, 2021

Group Dynamics in Malign Wargaming  (YouTube, PDF)
Stephen Downes-Martin
Georgetown University Wargaming Society, Aug 16, 2021

Swarm Gaming: Regaining the Strategic Innovation Initiative
Stephen Downes-Martin
Army War College "War Room" Online Journal, Oct 9, 2020
See also the Swarm Gaming Strategic Innovation Mind Map

What Strategic Decisions on the Horizon for the Department of Defense can best be Shaped through Wargaming?
Sebastian Bae, Ellie Bartels, Stephen Downes-Martin, Jim Lacey, Krisjand Rothweiler, Natalia Wojtowicz
Army War College "War Room" Online Journal, July 31, 2020

How can Wargaming Improve Government Response to Catastrophic Events?
Kristan Wheaton, Stephen Downes-Martin, Jim Lacey, Rex Brynen, Sebastian Bae, Ken Gilliam, Krisjand Rothweiler
Army War College "War Room" Online Journal, May 28, 2020

Preference Reversal Effects and Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections North Wargaming Conference, McGill University, Feb 2020

Exploit Small Group Dynamics During Analysis to Support the Decision You Want
Stephen Downes-Martin
Keynote Speech to the 13th NATO Operations Research and Analysis (OR&A) Conference, Ottawa Canada, Oct 2019

Wargame Refinement
Stephen Downes-Martin
Chapter 16 in Successful Professional Wargames: A Practitioner's Handbook by Graham Longley-Brown, History of Wargaming Project, 2019.

Wargaming the Far Future
Stephen Downes-Martin (Working Group Chair & Editor)
Wargaming the Far Future Working Group Report, Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army War College, Jul 2019 

Break the Forecasting Horizon by Values Gaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
In the Wargaming the Far Future Working Group Report, Connections US Wargaming Conference, US Army War College, Jul 2019 

The Future of Wargaming: Brain Probes, Crocodile Clips and Drugs
Stephen Downes-Martin
PAXsims, Oct 2019

Group Dynamics in Wargames and How to Exploit Them
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections North Wargaming Conference, McGill University, Feb 2019

Swarm Gaming Approach to Organizing In-Stride Adjudication Games
Stephen Downes-Martin
In-Stride Adjudication Working Group at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

In-Stride Adjudication Working Group Report
Merle Robinson, Stephen Downes-Martin  (Working Group Chairs & Editors)
Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Avoiding Risky and (Dis)honesty Shifts in Seminar Wargames
Stephen Downes-Martin, Korene Phillips, Ken Shogren, Sorrel Stetson, Rosemary Tropeano
Game Lab at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Wargaming Cyber at the Unclassified Level
Michael Bond, Stephen Downes-Martin, Andreas Haggman, Clayton Hutto, Michael Markowitz, Douglas Samuelson, Joseph Saur
Game Lab at Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University, Jul 2018

Validity and Utility of Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin (Working Group Chair & Editor)
Working Group 2 Report, MORS Wargaming Special Meeting Oct 2017, Dec 2017

Assessing IO Effects Requires Understanding Target Vulnerabilities to Forecast Behavior
Stephen Downes-Martin
IO Workshop, Institute for Defense Analysis Oct 2017

Adjudication Working Group
Stephen Downes-Martin, Timothy Wilkie
Working Group 3 Report, MORS Wargaming Special Meeting Oct 2016, Nov 2016

Wargaming to Deceive the Sponsor: Why and How?
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections UK Wargaming Conference, King's College London UK, Sep 2016

Wargaming Pathologies: What is to be Done?
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, LeMay Center Wargaming Institute, US Air War College, Aug 2016

How Not to Not Analyse Wargames
(and no, that is not a typographical error!)
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections UK Wargaming Conference, King's College London UK, Sep 2015

Operation Assessment: Multi-Service Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures for Operation Assessment
ALSA Working Group (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
NTTP 5-01.3, Aug 2015

Stress, Paranoia and Cheating: The Three Furies of Innovative Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
Connections US Wargaming Conference, National Defense University Washington DC, Jul 2015

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment
Gerald Perryman et al
Air Force Studies Board, National Research Council of the National Academies, Nov 2014

Your Boss, Players and Sponsor: The Three Witches of Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2014, Vol 67, No. 1, pp 31 – 40

Adjudication: The Diabolus in Machina of Wargaming
Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2013, Vol 66, No. 3, pp 67 – 80

Offensive Strategic Knowledge Warfare in the Shared Cyber Domain
Stephen Downes-Martin
Operationalizing Cyber Strategies Workshop, US Naval War College, May 3, 2012

Assessing COIN Information Operations Aimed at the Local Population
Stephen Downes-Martin
IO Sphere Journal, May 2012

Operations Assessment in Afghanistan is Broken: What is to be Done?
Stephen Downes-Martin
Naval War College Review 2011 Autumn, pp. 103 – 125

Assessments Process for Regional Command (South West)
Stephen Downes-Martin
Report to Commanding General I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), Helmand Province, Afghanistan, May 2010

Wargame players don't know that they don't know: What is to be done?
Stephen Downes-Martin
Round Table on Innovation of Strategic Gaming, National Defense University, Dec 15, 2009

Game Move Analysis for DEGRE (Deterrence Escalation Game and Review) 2009 Wargame
Stephen Downes-Martin
US Naval War College report to STRATCOM, Jul 2009 

Implementing the US Navy's Strategic Imperative 5
Stephen Downes-Martin, Grant Staats (Eds)
Report to OPNAV N5 on MOEs for implementing the CS21 Maritime Strategy, Jan 2009

Derivation of MOEs for Operational/Strategic Objectives Using System Thinking
Stephen Downes-Martin
MORS Workshop on Analytic Tools for Deterrence and Policy Assessment, Feb 2008

Game Theory Working Group Report
Stephen Downes-Martin, Hank Brightman
Working Group 5 Report, MORS Workshop on Analytic Tools for Deterrence and Policy Assessment, Feb 2008

Wargaming For the Sponsor, Not By the Sponsor
Stephen Downes-Martin
MORS Special Meeting on Wargaming and Analysis, Oct 2007

Educational Wargaming at the United States Naval War College
Stephen Downes-Martin, Michael Martin, David Sampson, Robert Rubel, Christopher Weuve
Connections Wargaming Conference, May 2007

Wargame Pathologies
Stephen Downes-Martin
Briefing to the Headmark Undersea Warfare in 2025 Wargame, Australian Command and Staff College, Nov 2005 

Supporting Organizational Change in Command and Control: Approaches and Metrics
Shawn Weil et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
10th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2005

Test Environment for FORCEnet Concepts
Katrina See et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
10th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2005

Transforming Naval Wargaming: A Framework for Operational-Level Wargaming
Peter Perla et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
CNA Report CRM D0010807.A2/Final, Sep 2004

Wargame Pathologies
Christopher Weuve, Peter Perla, Michael Markowitz, Robert Rubel, Stephen Downes-Martin, Michael Martin, Paul Vebber
CNA Report CRM D0010866.A1/Final, Sep 2004

Organizational Structure, Information Load, and Communication in Navy Teams
Keith Baker, Elliot E. Entin, Katrina See, Kevin Gildea, and Bonnie Baker, Stephen Downes-Martin,  Jon Cecchetti
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, Sep 2004

Organizational Structure and Dynamic Information Awareness in Command Teams
Keith Baker et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Jun 2004

Pathologies of War Gaming and What to Do About It
Stephen Downes-Martin et al.
Naval War College Briefing Feb 2004

Unified Course (UC) 04 Game Validity
Stephen Downes-Martin, Robert "Barney" Rubel, Christopher Weuve
Unified Course 04 Joint Concept Development Concept Wargame Final Report Nov 2003

Shared Situational Awareness C2 Experimentation
Stephen Downes-Martin, Kenneth Beutel
Information Superiority Working Group, Jun 2002

A Review of Organizational Warfare Activities
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for Advanced Telecommunications, Inc., Jun 1996

A Survey of Human Behavior Representation Activities for Distributed Interactive Simulation
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for US Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, Nov 1995 

Audit of Cocaine Pathfinder Model
Stephen Downes-Martin
Client Report for Advanced Telecommunications, Inc., Sep 1995

An Overview of Business Process Reengineering
Rick Bevilacqua et al (incl. Stephen Downes-Martin)
Institute of Industrial Engineers Business Process Re-engineering Conference, Oct 1995

Collaboration Systems
Stephen Downes-Martin
National Information Display Laboratory Report, 1995

Software Agent Technology
Stephen Downes-Martin
National Information Display Laboratory Report, 1995

Business Process Models as Software Agents
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1994

Distributed Interactive Collaboration for Education: An Extension of Distributed Interactive Simulation to the non-Military World
Stephen Downes-Martin et al.
IEEE Dual-Use Technologies and Application Conference, May 1994

Fast Futures Contingency Simulation: A ‘What If’ Tool for Exploring Alternative Plans
Martin Czigler, Stephen Downes-Martin, Dimitri Panagos
Military, Government and Aerospace Simulation Conference, Society for Computer Simulation, Apr 1994

ATM Softcopy Collaboration Network
Stephen Downes-Martin, Paul Hashfield, Thomas Stiller
Symposium on Advanced Information Processing and Analysis, Intelligence Community, Mar 1994

Intelligent Software Agents to Mediate Distributed Collaboration
Stephen Downes-Martin, Martin Czigler, Dimitri Panagos
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1993

Collaborative Distributed Simulation
Stephen Downes-Martin
Third Conference on Computer Generated Forces and Behavioral Representation, STRICOM-DMSO, Mar 1993

Integration of Higher Order, Analytic, and Closed Form Models into Distributed Interactive Simulation
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, Washington DC, Aug 1992

Seamless Simulation Literature Survey
Stephen Downes-Martin
Institute for Defense Analyses Client Report IDA D-1109, Apr 1992

Open and Extensible Architecture for Computer Generated Forces
Stephen Downes-Martin
Appendix A of Strawman Distributed Interactive Simulation Architecture Description Document Volume II Book II, LORAL Document ADST/WDL/TR–92-003010, Mar 1992 and in Summary Report: The Sixth DARPA/PMTRADE Workshop on Standards for the Interoperability of Defense Simulations. Volume II: Position Papers, Institute for Simulation and Training Report IST-CR-92-2, Mar 1992

Object-Oriented Design of Distributed Interactive Simulation
Stephen Downes-Martin, Brett Butler
Chapter 3 of Strawman Distributed Interactive Simulation Architecture Description Document Volume II Book II, LORAL Document ADST/WDL/TR–92-003010, Mar 1992

Seamless Simulation within the Distributed Interactive Simulation Architecture
Stephen Downes-Martin
Chapter 6 of Strawman Distributed Interactive Simulation Architecture Description Document Volume II Book I, LORAL Document ADST/WDL/TR–92-003010, Mar 1992

Virtual Reality as a Tool for Cross Cultural Communication: An Example from Military Team Training
Stephen Downes-Martin, Mark Long, Joanna Alexander
SPIE/IS&T Symposium on Electronic Imaging Science and Technology, Feb 1992

Virtual Environment Debriefing Room for Naval Pilots: Phase 1
Mark Long, Stephen Downes-Martin, Joanna Alexander
SPIE/IS&T Symposium on Electronic Imaging Science and Technology, Feb 1992

Managing Uncertainty in Time-Critical Plan Evaluation
Stephen Downes-Martin., Stephen Deutsch, Glenn Abrett
International Journal of Man Machine Studies, Vol 36, 337-356, 1992
IJCAI Workshop on Symbolic Problem Solving in Noisy, Novel, and Uncertain Task Environments, Aug 1989

Branch Simulation in a Synthetic Environment: A Policy Tool for Cross Cultural Negotiation
Stephen Downes-Martin
Callaway Workshop Modeling, Simulation and Gaming for Restructuring the U.S. Armed Forces, Dec 1991

Reaching an Understanding of Conventional Combat: Advanced Warfare Simulation Tools Use in Arms Control
Stephen Downes-Martin
Joint NATO Warsaw Pact Conference on Urgent Problems of International Security and Methods of Strategic Stability Assessments, Moscow, Oct 1991

Why Object-Oriented Methods are a Requirement for the Modeling, Simulation and Gaming of Warfare
Stephen Downes-Martin
CACI Annual Simulation Conference, San Diego, Aug 1991

The Combinatorics of Vehicle Level Wargaming for Senior Commanders
Stephen Downes-Martin
Second DARPA/PMTRADE Behavioral Representation and Computer Generated Forces Symposium, May 1991

What-If Combat Simulation Support for Military Planning (pre-print)
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin, Scott Swarts
Final version published In Advanced Technology for Command and Control Systems Engineering, Andriole, S. (Ed), pp 121-146, AFCEA International Press, 1990

The SIMNET Protocols as a Paradigm for Interoperability of Warfare Simulations
Stephen Downes-Martin
DARPA Workshop on Warfare Simulations Interoperability, 12 Sep 1990

Two AI Languages for Simulation
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin
Fourth AI and Simulation Workshop, IJCAI August 1989, Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation, Vol. 7:3, 229, Sep 1990

Guided Planning and Plan Execution
Glenn Abrett, Stephen Deutsch, Stephen Downes-Martin
AAAI Workshop on Automated Planning for Complex Domains, Aug 1990

Replacing the Exercise Controller with the Enemy: The SIMNET Semi-Automated Forces Approach
Stephen Downes-Martin
International Training Equipment Conference, UK, Apr 1990

Semi-Automated Forces Concepts and Approach
Stephen Downes-Martin
Appendix D of the Panel Review of of the Semi-Automated Forces, IDA Document 661, Sep 1989

Semi-Automated Forces: Combat Simulation for the Future
Stephen Downes-Martin
57th MORS Symposium Jun 1989

Aggregation Issues for Command Modules in SIMNET
Alton Gilbert,  John Robbins, Stephen Downes-Martin, Wilbur Payne
MORS MORIMOC II Symposium, Mar 1989

Embedded training technology survey
Stephen Downes-Martin, Harris, M., Kurland, L., & Massey D.
BBN Laboratories, Inc. Report 1986

Tank Tactics Grandmaster Background Notes
Gary Bloedorn, Stephen Downes-Martin
DARPA Workshop on Planning and Problem Solving in Animate Systems, Jun 1985

Ignorance, the Joker in the Pack
Stephen Downes-Martin
Applications of Machine Intelligence to Defence Systems, UK MoD, Mar 1983

A Superfield Analysis of Supergravity
Stephen Bedding , Stephen Downes-Martin, John G. Taylor
Annals Phys. 120 (1979) 175

A Critique of Superfield Theories of Supergravity
Stephen Bedding, Charles Pickup, John G. Taylor, Stephen Downes-Martin
Phys. Lett. B 83 (1979) 59-62

A Review of Superriemannian Space-Time Using Differential Forms
Stephen Downes-Martin, John G. Taylor
Nucl. Phys. B 126 (1977) 97-108