Publications

Publications in refereed journals:

Applied Economics

13. Mental health effects of social distancing in Switzerland (published version)

in Economics and Human Biology (2023 - forthcoming)

Abstract: This analysis examines the effect of COVID-19 on public mental health in Switzerland. Following an event-study framework, we compare helpline call volume and duration before and after the outbreak of the first and second wave. The use of administrative phone-level data allows us to i) decompose the total effects into an intensive and extensive margin and ii) calculate a measure of unmet need. For the first wave, our results show that callers with a history of helpline contacts increase calls substantially. We also identify capacity constraints leading to unmet need for psychological counseling. Finally, we find no effects in the second wave, which might be explained by a number of factors including the absence of a lockdown and less restrictive social distancing measures.

Keywords:

COVID-19, social distancing, mental health, Switzerland

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12. Measuring Inequality using Geospatial Data (published version) (KOF working paper - March 2021,AUT Working Paper - July 2020) (ASSA 2021 Poster)

with Jaqueson Galimberti and Regina Pleninger

in World Bank Economic Review (2023 - forthcoming)

Abstract: The main challenge in studying inequality is limited data availability, which is particularly problematic in developing countries. This study constructs a measure of light-based geospatial income inequality (LGII) for 234 countries/territories from 1992 to 2013 using satellite data on night lights and gridded population data. Key methodological innovations include the use of varying levels of data aggregation, and a calibration of the lights-prosperity relationship to match traditional inequality measures based on income data. The new LGII measure is significantly correlated with cross-country variation in income inequality. Within countries the light-based inequality measure is also correlated with measures of energy efficiency and the quality of population data. Two applications of the data are provided in the fields of health economics and international finance. The results show that light- and income-based inequality measures lead to similar results, but the geospatial data offers a significant expansion of the number of observations.

JEL Codes and Keywords:

D63, E01, I14, O11, O47, O57

nighttime lights, inequality, gridded population

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11. Awareness and use of (emergency) sick leave: US employees’ unaddressed sick leave needs in a global pandemic (published version)

with Emma Jelliffe, Paul Pangburn, and Nicolas Ziebarth

in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 118(29), 2021

Abstract: We study US sick leave use and unaddressed sick leave needs in the midst of the global severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS COV 2) pandemic based on a representative survey. More than half of all US employees are unaware of the new emergency sick leave options provided by the federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA). Awareness and take-up rates are significantly higher among Asian Americans and lower among the foreign-born. About 8 million employees used emergency sick leave in the first 6 to 8 mo. Nevertheless, the share of employees who needed but could not take paid sick leave tripled in the pandemic; unaddressed sick leave needs total 15 million employees per month and are 69% higher among women. Our findings show that access to paid sick leave significantly reduces unaddressed sick leave needs. We conclude that given the fragmented US sick leave landscape, to address the strong increase in unaddressed sick leave needs during the pandemic, federal FFCRA response was not adequate.

Keywords:

sick leave, presenteeism, unmet leave needs, infections, work conditions

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10. Positive Health Externalities of Mandating Paid Sick Leave (published version) [IZA DP No. 13530, 2020]

with Katherine Wen and Nicolas Ziebarth

in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 40(3), 715-743, 2021

Abstract: A growing economic literature studies the optimal design of social insurance systems and the empirical identification of welfare-relevant externalities. In this paper, we test whether mandating employee access to paid sick leave has reduced influenza-like-illness (ILI) transmission rates as well as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality rates in the United States. Using uniquely compiled data from administrative sources at the state-week level from 2010 to 2018 along with difference-in-differences methods, we present quasi-experimental evidence that sick pay mandates have causally reduced doctor-certified ILI rates at the population level. On average, ILI rates fell by about 11 percent or 290 ILI cases per 100,000 patients per week in the first year.

JEL codes:

H23, H75, I12, I14, I18, J22, J38 J58

Media: VoxEU, Ökonomenstimme

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9. COVID-19 Emergency Sick Leave Has Helped Flatten The Curve In The United States (published version)

with Katherine Wen and Nicolas Ziebarth

in Health Affairs 39(12), 2197-2204, 2020

Abstract: This paper tests whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emergency sick leave provision of the bipartisan Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) reduced the spread of the virus. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we compare pre-post FFCRA changes in newly reported COVID-19 cases in states where workers gained the right to take paid sick leave (treatment group) to states where workers already had access to paid sick leave (control group). We adjust for differences in testing, day-of-the-week reporting, structural state differences, general virus dynamics, and policies such as stay-at-home orders (SHO). Compared to the control group and relative to the pre-FFCRA period, states that gained access to paid sick leave through FFCRA saw a statistically significant 400 fewer confirmed cases per day. This estimate translates into roughly 1 prevented COVID-19 case per day, per 1300 workers who newly gained the option to take up to two weeks of paid sick leave.

Media: Knowable Magazine, The Hill, VoxEU, Ökonomenstimme

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8. Labor Market Effects of US Sick Pay Mandates (published version) [IZA DP No. 9867, 2016]

with Nicolas Ziebarth

in Jounal of Human Resources, 55(2), 611-659, 2020

Abstract: This paper exploits temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of nine city- and four state-level U.S. sick pay mandates to assess their labor market consequences. We use the Synthetic Control Group Method and traditional Difference-in-Differences models along with the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages to estimate the causal effects of mandated sick pay on employment and wages. We do not find much evidence that employment or wages were significantly affected by the mandates that typically allow employees to earn one hour of paid sick leave per work week, up to seven days per year. Employment decreases of 2 percent lie outside the 92 percent confidence interval and wage decreases of 3 percent lie outside the 95 percent confidence interval.

JEL codes and keywords:

I12; I13; I18; J22; J28; J32

Sick Pay Mandates; Sick Leave; Medical Leave; Employer Mandates; Employment; Wages; Synthetic Control Group; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); United States

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7. The Pros and Cons of Sick Pay Schemes: A Method to Test for Contagious Presenteeism and Shirking Behavior (published version)(Wissenschaftspreis dggö) [NBER Working Paper No. 22530, 2016][Upjohn Institute Working Paper No. 15-239, 2015] [IZA DP No. 8850, 2015] [KOF working paper No. 394, 2015]

with Nicolas Ziebarth

in Journal of Public Economics, 156, 14–33, 2017

Abstract: This paper provides an analytical framework and uses data from the US and Germany to test for the existence of contagious presenteeism and negative externalities in sickness insurance schemes. The first part exploits high-frequency Google Flu data and the staggered implementation of U.S. sick leave reforms to show in a reduced-form framework that population-level influenza-like disease rates decrease after employees gain access to paid sick leave. Next, a simple theoretical framework provides evidence on the underlying behavioral mechanisms. The model theoretically decomposes overall behavioral labor supply adjustments ('moral hazard') into contagious presenteeism and noncontagious absenteeism behavior and derives testable conditions. The last part illustrates how to implement the model exploiting German sick pay reforms and administrative industry-level data on certified sick leave by diagnoses. It finds that the labor supply elasticity for contagious diseases is significantly smaller than for noncontagious diseases. Under the identifying assumptions of the model, in addition to the evidence from the U.S., this finding provides indirect evidence for the existence of contagious presenteeism.

JEL codes and keywords:

I12; I13; I18; J22; J28; J32

Sickness Insurance; Paid Sick Leave; Presenteeism; Contagious Diseases; Infections; Negative Externalities; Absenteeism; U.S.; Germany

Media: VoxEU, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Ökonomenstimme, Economist, Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Conversable Economist,

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6. A Tradable Employment Quota (published version)(best paper award)

with Metin Akyol and Michael Neugart

in Labour Economics, 36, 48–63, 2015

Abstract: Discrimination of women in the labor market requires appropriate policy interventions. Affirmative action policies typically advocate the introduction of an employment quota uniformly applied to all firms. In a heterogeneous labor market such a policy may yield avoidable welfare losses. We propose a tradable employment quota showing its effects on wages, employment, and welfare in a labor market with search frictions and taste discrimination. A tradable employment quota appears to be a viable alternative yielding superior labor market outcomes.

JEL codes:

J71; J78; C63

Tradable employment quota; Affirmative action policies; Taste discrimination; Labor market; Search and matching; Agent-based model

Media: Ökonomenstimme, NZZ, Börsen-Zeitung

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5. Sickness Absence, Moral Hazard and the Business Cycle (published version)

in Health Economics, 24(6), 692–710, 2015

Abstract: The procyclical nature of sickness absence has been documented by many scholars in literature. So far, explanations have been based on labor force composition and reduced moral hazard caused by fear of job loss during recessions. In this paper, we propose and test a third mechanism caused by reduced moral hazard during booms and infections. We suggest that the workload is higher during economic booms and thus employees have to go to work despite being sick. In a theoretical model focusing on infectious diseases, we show that this will provoke infections of coworkers leading to overall higher sickness absence during economic upturns. Using state-level aggregated data from 112 German public health insurance funds (out of 145 in total), we find that sickness absence due to infectious diseases shows the largest procyclical pattern, as predicted by our theoretical model.

JEL codes and keywords:

J21; J64; J32; I12

Sickness absence; Unemployment; Infections

Media: 20 Minuten

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4. Demographic Consequences of HIV (published version)

with Martin Karlsson

in Journal of Population Economics, 28(4), 1097–1135, 2015

Abstract: In this study, we estimate the effect of the HIV epidemic on demographic outcomes in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. We apply the synthetic control group method and estimate the consequences for life expectancy, mortality, and birth rates. According to standard measures of fit, the method seems to perform well for all countries and outcomes. Our results show a large effect on life expectancy and mortality in two countries and a small and insignificant effect on birth rates. The impact of the pandemic is very heterogeneous. In Mozambique, the impact of HIV on life expectancy and mortality appears to have been surprisingly small. This heterogeneity is not due to AIDS causing fewer deaths in Mozambique than in the two other countries. Instead, the net effect of HIV in Mozambique appears to be diminished by reduced mortality for other causes—in particular child mortality, respiratory infections, and injuries.

Keywords:

I15; J11; O15

HIV; AIDS; Mortality; Life expectancy; Fertility; Synthetic control groups

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3. Climate Policy with Technology Transfers and Permit Trading (published version)

with Carsten Helm

in Environmental and Resource Economics, 60(1), 37–54, 2015

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze technology transfers (TT) and tradable emission rights, which are core issues of the ongoing climate negotiations. Subsidizing TT leads to the adoption of better abatement technologies in the South, thereby reducing the international permit price. This is beneficial for the North as long as it is a permit buyer; hence it chooses to subsidize TT. By contrast, the permit selling South suffers from the lower permit price and its welfare usually deteriorates, despite receiving subsidies. We also consider how TT affects countries' non-cooperative choices of permit endowments and find that it tends to reduce overall emissions. Finally, a simple numerical simulation model illustrates the results and explores some further comparative statics.

JEL codes and keywords:

D62; D78; H41; O38; Q58

Emissions trading; Technology transfer; International climate policy; Additionality; Subsidies

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2. The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden (published version)

with Martin Karlsson and Therese Nilsson

in Journal of Health Economics, 36, 1–19, 2014

Abstract: We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on short- and medium-term economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature – despite representing an unparalleled labour supply shock. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic led to a significant increase in poorhouse rates. There is also evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. However, contrary to predictions, we find no discernible effect on earnings.

JEL codes and keywords:

I18; J31; O40

Spanish flu; Health shock; Difference-in-differences

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1. Were the Hartz Reforms Responsible for the Improved Performance of the German Labour Market? (published version)

with Metin Akyol and Michael Neugart

in Economic Affairs, 33(1), 34–47, 2013

Abstract: From 2005 to 2011 employment rose and unemployment rates declined considerably in Germany. This favourable development followed the labour market reforms initiated in 2003, and there has been a tendency to attribute the improved labour market performance to those reforms. Causal micro-evaluations of the various measures, however, show hardly any effects on variables that can be related to employment. Rather, it seems that employment increased in response to a process of wage moderation that had already begun in the 1990s. It is possible that this moderation was itself partially a product of the reforms, but this needs further investigation.

JEL codes and keywords:

J38; J48; J58; J64; J68

Germany; Hartz reforms; Labour markets; Unemployment

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Health Services Research

1. Differences in healthcare structures, processes and outcomes of neighbouring European countries:

the example of Germany and the Netherlands (published version)

with Lars Schwettmann, Axel Hamprecht, Gesine H. Seeber, Andreas Voss, Lena Ansmann, and Falk Hoffmann

in Research in Health Services & Regions 2, 17, 2023

Abstract: Although healthcare systems across Europe face rather similar challenges, their organization varies widely. Even neighbouring countries substantially differ with respect to healthcare structures, processes, and resulting outcomes. Focusing on Germany and the Netherlands as examples of such neighbouring countries, this paper will first identify and discuss similarities and major differences between both systems on the macro-level of healthcare. It further argues that it is often unknown how these differences trickle down to individual healthcare organizations, providers, patients or citizens, i.e., to the meso- and micro-level of healthcare. Hence, in a second step, potential implications of macro-level differences are described by considering the examples of total hip arthroplasty, antibiotic prescription practices and resistance, and nursing home care in Germany and the Netherlands. The paper concludes with an outlook on how these differences can be studied using the example of the project “Comparison of healthcare structures, processes and outcomes in the Northern German and Dutch cross-border region” (CHARE-GD). It further discusses potential prospects and challenges of corresponding cross-national research.

JEL codes and keywords:

J38; J48; J58; J64; J68

Germany; Hartz reforms; Labour markets; Unemployment

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Publications in books and non-refereed journals:

Sick leave and medical leave in the United States: a categorization and recent trends (published version)

with Nicolas Ziebarth

in: Rachidi A, Ruhm C, editors. Paid leave for illness, medical needs, and disabilities: Issues and answers. First edition. Washington (DC): American Enterprise Institute and Brookings Institution, 2020

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The Young Prisoner's Dilemma: Juvenile Recidivism in Germany (published version)

with Daniel Römer

in Lessons from the Economics of Crime: What Reduces Offending?, The MIT Press, Cambridge: MIT Press, 111-130, 2013

Abstract: This chapter reviews the literature of juvenile recidivism and provides an in depth analysis of recent evidence from Germany. While the empirical literature shows that transferring juveniles to criminal courts typically leads to higher recidivism in the United States, this result might not be generalizable to other legal systems. Based on a unique sample of inmates in Germany and applying both a bivariate probit and a regression discontinuity design, the authors do not find that the application of criminal law increases juvenile recidivism. Rather, the analysis suggests that sentencing adolescents as adults reduces recidivism in Germany.

JEL codes and keywords:

Juvenile crime; Recidivism; Courts

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Effekten av spanska sjukan på ekonomiska utfall i Sverige (published version)

with Martin Karlsson and Therese Nilsson

in Ekonomisk Debatt, 41 (1), 22-27, 2013

Abstract: År 1918 drabbades världen av den mycket omfattande och dödliga influensaepidemi som fått namnet spanska sjukan. Medan de återkommande influensa-stammar som cirkulerar i världen i regel främst drabbar barn, gamla och sjuka, var de flesta offren denna gång friska och unga människor. Författarna undersöker de ekonomiska konsekvenser som följer när en omfattande hälsochock drabbar en befolkning i arbetsför ålder. De finner att epidemier med hög dödlighet kan ha en stor negativ inverkan på levnadsstandarden. Detta resultat står i skarp kontrast till dominerande makroekonomiska modeller, som förutspår att en arbetskraftschock ger en ökad levnadsstandard för dem som överlever.