Research project websites
Many of the sites below require a Google account to access. Feel free to request viewing or even editing access to a site.
Research questions in the NIH ARRA project "Compensating for Uncertainty Biases in Health Risk Judgments"
Collaboration on advanced bias correction
Algorithms for computing the mean and variance of a p-box under unary transformations
Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysis
Wikipedia article on the scientific and engineering applications of probability bounds analysis
Applied Biomathematics Uncertainty
Roundup of public websites related to uncertainty from research at Applied Biomathematics
Applied Biomathematics' NIH ARRA links
Roundup of websites for Applied Biomathematics' NIH-funded project on medical counseling software
Handling messy, ill-focused, sparse, qualitative, multivariable, unbalanced, incomplete, imprecise, missing, dubiously relevant data
Informal convocation of Bayesian and would-be Bayesians do discuss their problems
Bayes interval calculator for medical tests
Chance of disease given a test and interval estimates of prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity
Bayes' rule without independence assumptions
Do we have to assume samples are independent to use Bayes' rule?
Beyond the statistician's bag of marbles
How binary sampling data informs us when we can’t make the usual assumptions
Biological and evolutionary context of risk analysis
Perspectives from biology and evolution inform risk analysis and communication
Material for a planned book Uncertain Numbers
Confidence structures for parameters of binomial distributions from random sample data
Challenge problems for a review of methods to characterize inputs for quantitative risk assessments
Ways to fight against the social ills created by poorly calibrated skepticism
Techniques for effectively communicating uncertainties and risks to humans
Comparing binomial rates with poor data
Software tools to compare binomial process rates under poor data about successes and failures
Review paper on risk analysis based on confidence structures
Reviews and demonstration papers about statistical confidence structures in risk analysis
Wikipedia article on sets of probability measures
EPRI project on how critical habitat is addressed within the context of the Endangered Species Act
Primer on methods and ideas in uncertainty quantification
All topics of uncertainty analysis and the DAWS UQ project website
Designing diagnostic algorithms
Proposal for software to aid physicians and public health workers in designing testing strategies and diagnostic algorithms
Digital Twin uncertainty research
A research project at the Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, part of the EPSRC DigiTwin Programme Grant
Dilation is a phenomenon in which learning more information necessarily increases your uncertainty
On-going project to develop statistical methods for detecting disease clusters in structured settings
Distribution-free risk analysis
Series of papers on propagating probabilistic uncertainty without assumptions about distribution shapes
Document Abstraction Markup Language
Tools for next-generation science and engineering that are distributed, accessible and trackable
Software for predictive analytics with imprecise data
ENGG185 Statistics and Programming for Engineers
First-year undergraduate course introducing engineers to statistics and programming
Using expressions like "k out of n" to convey uncertainty about a probability
Reliability of engineered space systems (satellites) to space weather (solar flares)
Responses to selected arguments in a variety of Flat Earth conspiracy videos on Youtube
Wikipedia article on bounds on probabilities of logical conjunctions (AND) and disjunctions (OR)
Assessing adverse environmental effects from a genetic-drive mosquito-control project in Africa
HTML characters for Google sites
Bestiary of special characters that can be copied onto Google Sites webpages
Collaboration for a paper on how to improve the fairness, friendliness, efficacy and correctness of algorithms that automate decision making
Gullibility that becomes socially dangerous
Occasional lectures and working groups on uncertainty at Applied Biomathematics
Intervalized logistic regression [subsumed by 'Intervalized statistics']
Review paper on interval censoring and missing data in logistic regression
Book collaboration on descriptive and inferential statistics for data sets that contain intervals
Cloud application demonstrating basic statistics for univariate data with interval uncertainties
Limited information probabilistic risk analysis
Collaboration for paper reviewing methods for PRAs when information is in short supply
Why do humans hate losses more than they love gains?
Papers on the psychological mechanisms and evolutionary origin of the loss aversion
Collaboration to develop games that can replace questionnaires
A paper on whether collecting imprecise data can worsen the overall uncertainty of statistical estimates
Montauk symposium on risk communication
An NSF-sponsored meeting on evolutionary, anthropological and psychological issues in communicating risk and uncertainty
NASA Uncertainty Challenge Problems
[INACTIVE] Our solutions to the Uncertainty Challenge problems proffered by Crespo et al. at NASA
Two-hour introductory lecture on risk analysis for the nuclear energy students in the GREEN CDT
Roundup of research on hedge words that modify numerical expressions
Articles coauthored by Ferson on p-boxes and probability bounds analysis, organized by topic
Blog for developers and users of the R package pbox.r implementing interval and p-box arithmetic in R
Day-long tutorial on developing a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available
Archive of slides used during the tutorials "PRA with hardly any data"
Wikipedia article on computing with probability boxes and applications in science and engineering
Wikipedia article on a computationally convenient characterization of uncertain numbers
NIH SBIR project to anonymize patient data that reasonably protects privacy but best preserves informativeness for research
Puffin: pre-compiler for automating uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty is too important to be left to analysts (part of the DigiTwin project funded by EPSRC)
Confidence boxes can have both a Bayesian interpretation and frequentist statistical performance
Estimating risk of rare and not-yet-seen events
Collaboration on the ravnoprochnost paper(s)
Tiered strategies for demonstrating compliance with regulatory requirements
Regulatory economics and risk assessment
Roundup of papers from the NSF project comparing regulatory economics and risk assessment
Reliability uncertainty with confidence boxes
Collaboration to use c-boxes to assess uncertainty in reliability analyses
Resilience is stability to, or speedy recovery from, unknown perturbations yet to come
Description of the commercial software RAMAS Risk Calc from Applied Biomathematics
Developer and user blog for the new release of RAMAS Risk Calc
Workshop with the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Wolfson Centre for Personalized Medicine
Source libraries for robust Bayes analysis based on numerical and conjugacy methods
Wikipedia article on Bayesian sensitivity analysis, also known as robust Bayes analysis
Family photographs from the Rowsey family of Shelbyville, Indiana (1890-2015)
Personal website
Resume for Scott Ferson
Oral presentations by Scott Ferson
Archive of slide presentations from the graduate class on risk analysis
Smarter mobility collaboration hub
Proposal for smarter mobility to help all countries avoid or leapfrog vehicular carnage
Public face of the Smarter Mobility project
Collaboration website for the Social Media Subcommittee of the Society for Risk Analysis
Strategies for risk communication: evolution, evidence and experience
Conference on the implications of risk perception, neuroscience, and the evolutionary social sciences for risk communication
Add-in for Microsoft Excel that allows it to represent and compute with uncertain numbers
The only kind of numbers that exist, outside of the minds of mathematicians
Material for a planned book Uncertain Numbers
[UNDER CONSTRUCTION]General topics in uncertainty analysis and the internal DAWS UQ project website
MDA project to develop a framework for general calculations respecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainty
Uncertainty in emergency medicine
How can emergency medicine be improved by proper appreciation of measurement uncertainty?
How estimation and planning with Boolean logic in fault and event trees changes under uncertainty
Uncertainty projection in engineered systems
Roundup of the reports delivered to the Sandia Epistemic Uncertainty project
Some quotable or amusing quips, bon mots, clichés and platitudes
A critique of the 2004 paper "On uncertainty in medical testing" by Winkler & Smith in Medical Decision Making
Project website for the NIH ARRA project "Compensating for Uncertainty Biases in Health Risk Judgments"
Workshop on validation of uncertain ecological models with imprecise data
Announcement and materials for a workshop at Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli over 15-19 September 2014
Year-three individual projects
Collaboration website for third-year engineering undergraduate research projects