Sarah Zubairy - RESEARCH

Working Papers

"Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications," with Geumbi Park and Xiaoqing Zhou, updated May 2026 (NBER Working Paper 34686)
- - Coverage: Brookings Hutchins Roundup

"Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment," with Huixin Bi and Maxime Phillot, updated March 2026 (NBER Working Paper 35098)
- - Coverage: Brookings Hutchins Roundup
  - Related policy note: "Higher Treasury Supply Is Likely to Put Upward Pressure on Interest Rates ", Kansas City Fed Economic Bulletin, November 2025

"Innovation During Challenging Times: Patent Based Innovation Shocks and Business Cycle Dynamics," with Marija Vukotić and Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, updated July 2025

Publications

"Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Debt," with Michael Plante and Alexander Richter, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming. (Online Appendix) (NBER Working Paper 34018 )
- - Related policy note: "How sensitive are interest rates to higher federal debt?", Dallas Fed Economics, August 2025
  - Featured in NBER Digest
  - Coverage: Brookings Hutchins Roundup, Macro Roundup, Marginal Revolution, The Daily Spark, Central Banking

"State Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," with Yoon J. Jo, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2025, 17(1). (Pre-publication version) (Data and Replication Codes)

"Household Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," with Sami Alpanda and Melissa Hyunji Song, International Economic Review, November 2024, 65(4). (Pre-publication version)

"Public Pension Reforms and Retirement Decisions: Narrative Evidence and Aggregate Implications," with Huixin Bi, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2023, 15(4). (Pre-publication version) (Online Appendix)(Data and Replication Codes)
- - Related policy publication: "Implementation Delays in Pension Retrenchment Reforms," with Huixin Bi and Kevin Hunt, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Second Quarter 2019.

"Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?" with Nadav Ben Zeev and Valerie A. Ramey, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023, 113. (Online Appendix) (Data and Replication Codes)
- - - VoxEU Column

"State Dependence of Monetary Policy Across Business, Credit and Interest Rate Cycles," with Sami Alpanda and Eleonora Granziera, European Economic Review, November 2021, 140. (Pre-publication version)

"Homeownership and Housing Transitions: Explaining the Demographic Composition," with Eunseong Ma. International Economic Review, May 2021, 62(2). (Pre-publication version)

"Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy" with Sami Alpanda. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2019, 51(5). (Not for Publication Appendix) (Pre-publication version)

"Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," with Anna Kormilitsina. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, October 2018, 50(7). (Pre-publication version)

"Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR" with Laura Jackson and Michael T. Owyang. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, August 2018, 93. (Pre-publication version)

"Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data." with Valerie A. Ramey Journal of Political Economy, April 2018, 126(2). (Supplementary Appendix) (Data and Replication Codes) (Pre-publication version)
- - - VoxEU column

"Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy?" with Sami Alpanda. European Economic Review, February 2017, 92. (Pre-publication version)

"Housing and Tax Policy," with Sami Alpanda. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, March-April 2016, 48(2-3). (Not for Publication Appendix) (Pre-publication version) (Corrigendum, October 2018)

"On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model." International Economic Review, February 2014, 55(1). (Not For Publication Appendix) (Pre-publication version)

"Interest Rate Rules and Equilibrium Stability under Deep Habits," Macroeconomic Dynamics, January 2014, 18(1). (Not for Publication Appendix) (Pre-publication version)

"Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data." with Michael T. Owyang and Valerie A. Ramey. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May 2013, 103(3).

"Who Benefits from Increased Government Spending? A State-Level Analysis," with Michael T. Owyang. Regional Science and Urban Economics, May 2013, 43(3). (Pre-publication version)

"What is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining US Macroeconomic Fluctuations?" with Barbara Rossi. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, September 2011, 43(6). (Data) (Not for Publication Appendix)

"A Primer on the Empirical Identification of Government Spending Shocks," with Kristie M. Engemann and Michael T. Owyang. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008, 90(2), pp. 117-32.

Older Working Papers

"Business Cycle Implications of Firm Market Power in Labor and Product Markets," with Sami Alpanda, April 2021
"Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks," August 2009

Relics from a Past Life

"L-functions and Higher Order Modular Functions," with D. Farmer, American Institute of Mathematics Preprint Series, 9 (2006).
"Characters and q-series in Q(\sqrt(2))," with D. Corson, D. Favero and K. Liesinger, Journal of Number Theory, 107 (2004).

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