NCAA Tournament: Predicting the Bracket, Interim Ranking Reports

Updated May 2017

The purpose of this page is to provide some guidelines, based on the ten years from 2007 through 2016, for using teams' weekly RPI ranks to see which teams are in a range within which they reasonably might get at large selections and seeds in the NCAA Tournament.  Information about the weekly RPI rank reports is at this website's "NCAA Tournament: Bracket Procedure" page under the caption "RPI Publication Dates."

Basic Information

Using data from the ten years from 2007 through 2016, for each weekly RPI rank report starting with the second report I have identified the following:

1.  The ARPI rank of the team with the poorest rank that ultimately got an at large selection to the NCAA Tournament;

2.  The ARPI rank of the team with the best rank that ultimately did not get an at large selection to the Tournament; and

3..  The ARPI rank of the team with the poorest rank that ultimately got a #1, #2, #3, and #4 seed in the Tournament.

Guidelines

The above information results in the following guidelines for using the weekly rank reports to see the teams that have a reasonable chance of getting an at large selection to the Tournament; the teams that are at risk of not getting an at large selection; and the teams that are potential #1, #2, #3, and #4 seed candidates.  It's important to remember that these only are guidelines.  It's especially important to remember this for the interim reports, as the information is based on the rating system the Women's Soccer Committee used for each particular year and the systems' bonus and penalty adjustment formats and values changed several times during the 2007-2015 time period.  For the guidelines for the Final Report, however, the information is based on the 2015 ARPI as applied retroactively to each year.

Here are the guidelines, for use in relation to the indicated 2017 RPI report dates:

Report 2 (9/25/17)

#1 seed range: Ranked #28 or better

#2 seed range:  Ranked #42 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #85 or better

#4 seed range: Ranked #85 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #11 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #148 or better.

At large "bubble" group: #11 through #148

Report 3 (10/2/2017)

#1 seed range: Ranked #28 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked # 42 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #59 or better

#4 seed range: Ranked #59 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #17 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #130 or better

At large "bubble" group: #17 through #130

Report 4 (10/9/2017)

#1 seed range: Ranked #19 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked # 31 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #45 or better

#4 seed range: Ranked #53 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #18 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #86 or better

At large "bubble" group: #18 through #86

Report 5 (10/16/2017)

#1 seed range: Ranked #19 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked #25 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked # 30 or better

#4 seed range: Ranked # 43 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #22 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #78 or better

At large "bubble" group: #22 through #78

Report 6 (10/24/2016)

#1 seed range: Ranked #14 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked #20 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #30 or better

#4 seed range: Ranked #43 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #26 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #62 or better

At large "bubble" group: #26 through #62

Report 7 (10/30/2017)

#1 seed range: Ranked #10 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked #17 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #27 or better

#4 seed range:  Ranked #33 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #29 or worse

With a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #62 or better

At large "bubble" group: #29 through #62

Final Report (11/5/2017)

#1 seed range: Ranked #7 or better

#2 seed range: Ranked #14 or better

#3 seed range: Ranked #19 or better

#4 seed range:  Ranked #26 or better

At risk of not making the tournament bracket: Ranked #31 or worse

Outside the top group, but with a chance of getting an at large selection to the tournament bracket: Ranked #57 or better

At large "bubble" group: #31 through #57

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