Published Papers
The Short-run Policy Constraints of Long-run Expectations
Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming
with S. Eusepi and M. Giannoni, April 2024
[Old version with additional results. Formerly called the Limits of Monetary Policy]
A Short History in Defense of Adaptive Learning
Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective, forthcoming
with S. Eusepi, October 2023
Anchored Inflation Expectations
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15, 2023 [Lead article]
with C. Carvalho, S. Eusepi and E. Moench
The Term Structure of Expectations
Handbook of Economic Expectations, 2022, with R. Crump, S. Eusepi and E. Moench
Non-Rational Beliefs in an Open Economy
Review of Economic Dynamics, 41, 2021, with Q. Du and S. Eusepi
[On-line Appendix, Replication Files]
Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia’s COVID-19 Response
Australian Economic Review, 2020, with C. Edmond and R. Holden
The Case for Reform of the RBA's Policy and Communication Strategy
Australian Economic Review, 53(1), 2020
Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge
American Economic Review, 108(9), 2018, with S. Eusepi
Some Implications of Learning for Price Stability
European Economic Review, 6, 2018, with S. Eusepi and M. Giannoni [Lead Article]
The Science of Monetary Policy: An Imperfect Knowledge Perspective
Journal of Economic Literature, 56(1), 2018, with S. Eusepi [Lead Article]
Consumption Heterogeneity, Employment Dynamics and Macroeconomic Co-movement
Journal of Monetary Economics, 71, 2015, with S. Eusepi
Debt, Policy Uncertainty and Expectations Stabilization,
Journal of the European Economics Association, 2012, with S. Eusepi
Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection
Journal of Econometrics, 167(2), 2012, joint with Han Hong
Learning about the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some Consequences of Debt-Management Policy
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25(4), 2011 with S. Eusepi
Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations
American Economic Review, 101(6), 2011, joint with Stefano Eusepi
Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 2010, with S. Eusepi
Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances?
Journal of International Economics, 81(1), 2010, with A. Justiniano
Monetary Policy and Uncertainty in an Empirical Small Open Economy Model
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(1), 2010, with A. Justiniano
Adaptive Learning and the Use of Forecasts in Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 2008
Adaptive Learning, Forecast-Based Instrument Rules and Monetary Policy
Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 2006
Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Forecasts Matter
International Journal of Central Banking, 1, 2005
Precautionary Savings and Consumption Fluctuations
American Economic Review, 95, 2005, with Jonathan Parker
Generalized Empirical Likelihood-Based Model Selection Criteria for Moment Condition Model
Econometric Theory, 19, 2003, with Han Hong and Matthew Shum