This is the webpage for the IDEI 2021-2023 project: The Transmission of shocks in network economies: mechanisms and policy implications
In the aftermath of the last financial and economic crisis from 2008-2010, as well as of the crisis due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, there is an increased awareness about the importance of having a proper understanding of how shocks (be it economic shocks such as productivity, monetary, and fiscal; commodity price shocks; or even shocks from non-economic origins like the ones due to a pandemic) transmit themselves through the production network of an economy. The rise of global value chains has further outlined the critical dependence of global production on particular nodes in the chain. In this context, academics and policy makers have a profound interest in accurately modelling the mechanisms through which economic and non-economic shocks transmit through and affect production networks. This can lead to a better understanding of systemically-important industries or companies in an industry. Also, it can offer insights into how to design targeted stabilization policies that mitigate economic crises. We aim to use state-of-art time-series econometrics to identify economic shocks and then use network science, and its applications in economics, to study, theoretically and empirically, the mechanisms of propagation of shocks through sectorial linkages. Also, we aim at classifying different types of shocks depending on their network effects and propose adequate economic policies to stabilize them.
YEAR I
Conferences:
1) Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics, Paris, France, 2-3 June 2021 (online).
2) European Economic & Finance Society Annual Meeting, 23-25 June 2021, London, UK (online).
3) International Conference on Business Excellence, Bucharest, 19-20 March 2021, Bucharest (online).
4) ERMAS, 28-30 July, Sibiu, Romania (in person).
5) Computational and Financial Econometrics, London, UK (online).
6) Encuentro Anual Sociedad de Economía de Chile, Valdivia, Chile (online).
Publications:
1) Caraiani Petre. Using LASSO-family models to estimate the impact of monetary policy on corporate investments, Economics Letters 210: 110182, 2022.
2) Caraiani Petre, Lazarec Vasile-Alexandru. Using Entropy to Evaluate the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Financial Networks, Entropy, 23 (11), 1465 , 2021.
YEAR II
Conferences:
1) Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics, Paris, France, 2-3 June 2022
3) International Conference on Business Excellence, Bucharest, 24-26 March 2022, Bucharest.
4) ERMAS, 27-29 July, Cluj Napoca, Romania, 2022.
5) Computational and Financial Econometrics, London, UK , 17-19 December 2022.
6) RCEA Conference on Recent Developments in Economics, Econometrics and Finance, 4-6 April 2022.
7) Statistics of Machine Learning, 5-7 October, Prague, Czech Republic, 2022.
8) The 23rd Conference of the Romanian Society for Probability and Statistics, 18-19 November, Bucharest, Romania, 2022.
Publications:
1) Caraiani Petre. The impact of oil supply news shocks on corporate investments and the structure of production network. Energy Economics 110: 106011,2022.
2) Andre, Christophe, Caraiani Petre, Cantemir Adrian-Calin, Gupta Ranga. Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles? Economic Modelling 110: 105801 2022.
3) Caraiani Petre, Gupta Rangan, Lau Chi Keung Marco, Marfatia Hardik A. Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment. Journal of Behavioral Finance 23(3): 241-261.
YEAR III
Conferences:
1) Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics, Paris, France, 1st-2nd June 2023.
2) International Conference on Business Excellence, Bucharest, 23rd-24th March, 2023.
3) ERMAS, 26-28 iulie, Bucharest, 2023.
4) Computational and Financial Econometrics, Berlin, Germany , 16th-18th December 2023.
5) European Economic Association Annual Conference, Barcelona, Spain, 28th August - 1st September 2023.
6) Compstat - Conference on Computational Statistics, London,Great Britain, 22nd-25th August, 2023.
Publicatii:
1) Petre Caraiani, Oil news shocks, inflation expectations and social connectedness. Energy Economics 127, 107054.
2) Andre, Christophe, Caraiani Petre, Gupta Ranga. Fiscal Policy and Stock Markets at the Effective Lower Bound. Finance Research Letters 58, 104564, 2023
3) Petre Caraiani. Monetary Policy Shocks and Input–Output Characteristics of Production Networks, Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16 (3), 168, 2023
4) Petre Caraiani The Structural Convergence of New Members of the European Union: An Input-Output Perspective. Economies 11 (10), 243.