Peter McAdam - Full Publications

Published/Forthcoming

The list below is in in the order of Current Work; Published/Forthcoming; Invited and Papers & Proceedings; Comments on my papers by others; Book Chapters; Book; and Voxeu columns.

Current Work

Returns to Scale: New Estimates from Administrative Firm-Level Data (with Meinen, Papageorgiou, Schulte) [Revise & Resubmit American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics].
News and Surprises: Fiscal Shocks in the Open Economy (with Litainas, Montagnoli, Mouratidis) [Revise & Resubmit Journal of International Money and Finance]. New!
Endogenous Fiscal-Monetary Interactions (with Candido, Divino, Orrillo) New!
Under Pressure: Strategic Signaling in Bank Earnings Calls (with Cook, Hansen, Kazinnik) New!
Were Negative Nominal Interest Rates Optimal? (with Faria, Suarez) New!
Money, Liquidity and Crises: Evidence From A Markov-Switching Model (with Caglayan, Mouratidis, Papapanagioto) New!
Threshold Endogeneity in Threshold VARs: An Application to Monetary State Dependence (with Christopoulos, Tzavalis)
European Trade & Growth Imbalances: An Analysis using a Sign-Restriction Bayesian-GVAR with Stochastic Volatility (with Mouratidis, Panagiotidis, Papapanagioto) New!
Ricardian Equivalence: The Role of Debt Enforcement (with Filho and Orillo) New!
Financial Frictions, Monetary Policy and Market Power (with Ferrando, Petroulakis, Vives)
Old Habits Die Hard: Asset Pricing with Path-Dependent Default (with Orrillo) New!
A Model of Serial Sovereign Default: Shocks, Uncertainty, and Fiscal Habits (with Faria, Orrillo)
R&D Capital and the Idea Production Function (with Growiec, Muck)
Production Heterogeneity and Misallocation (with Willman) [this paper has worked hard; it's now having a long rest]

Published or forthcoming

- 1. The Janus Model of Money Demand (2024) (with Faria), International Journal of Economic Theory, 20, 3, 334-351.
  2. What's eating macro? (2024), Journal of Macroeconomics, 81, Article 103619.
  3. Density Forecast Combinations: The Real-Time Dimension (with Warne), 2024 Journal of Forecasting 43(5), 1153–1172.
  4. Climate Investments, Stock Markets and the Open Economy (with Attílio and Faria) [forthcoming at Macroeconomic Dynamics]
  5. Monetary Policy, Market Power and SMEs (with Ferrando, Petroulakis, Vives), AEA Papers and Proceedings May, 2023, 113, 105-109.
  6. Credit Shocks, Employment Protection, and Growth: Firm-level Evidence from Spain (with Laeven, Popov), Journal of Banking and Finance (2023, 152, 106850).
  7. Monetary Policy, Neutrality and the Environment (with Faria, Viscolani), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2023, 1889-1906, 55, 7.
  8. Financial Reforms and Innovation: A Micro-Macro Perspective (with Boikos, Bournakis, Christopoulos), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2023, 132, April.
  9. Revisiting Okun’s Law Asymmetry: An Endogenous Threshold LSTR Approach (with Christopoulos, Tzavalis) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 85, 1, 123-158.
  10. The Green Golden Rule, in Dictionary of Ecological Economics, 2023, Edward Elgar Press, ed., B. Haddad and B. D Solomon.
  11. A S. Manu, P. McAdam and A. Willman (2022) The Role of Factor Substitution and Technical Progress in China's Great Expansion, European Economic Review 141, 1-22.
  12. Christopoulos, D., P. McAdam and E. Tzavalis (2021) Dealing with Endogeneity In Threshold Models using Copulas: An Illustration to the Foreign Trade Multiplier Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 39, 1, 166-178.
  13. Growiec, J., P. McAdam and J. Muck (2021) On the Optimal Labor Income Share International Journal of Central Banking, 4, 291-342.
  14. M. Charpe, S. Bridji and P. McAdam Labor Share and Growth in the Long Run (2020) Macroeconomic Dynamics , 24, 7, 1720-1757 .
  15. Christopoulos, D. and P. McAdam Efficiency, Inefficiency and the MENA Frontier (2019) Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23, 2, 489-521.
  16. McAdam, P. and A. Warne (2019) Euro Area Real-Time Density Forecasting with Financial or Labor Market Frictions International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 2, 580-600.
  17. Faria, J. R. and P. McAdam (2018) The Green Golden Rule: Habit and Anticipation of Future Consumption, Economics Letters, 172, 131-133.
  18. Muck, J,. P. McAdam and J. Growiec (2018) Will the 'True' Labor Share Stand Up? An Applied Survey on Labor Share Measures, Journal of Economic Surveys, 32, 4, 961-984.
  19. Muck, J,. P. McAdam and J. Growiec (2018) Endogenous Labor Share Cycles: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 87, 2, 74-93.
  20. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2018) Unraveling The Skill Premium, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22, 1, 33-62.
  21. Christopoulos, D. and P. McAdam (2017) On the Persistence of Cross-Country Inequality Measures, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49, 1, 255-266.
  22. Christopoulos, D. and P. McAdam (2017) Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?, Journal of International Money and Finance 70, Feb, 45-61.
  23. Fagan, G., Gaspar V. and P. McAdam (2016) Kant's Endogenous Growth Mechanism, Scottish Journal of Political Economy 63, 5, 427-442.
  24. McAdam, P. (2016) Book Review of 'Economic Growth: A Unified Approach' by O. de La Grandville, Journal of Economics, 119, 1, 91-96.
  25. Faria, J. R. and P. McAdam (2015) Macroeconomic Adjustment under Regime Change: From Social Contract to Arab Spring, Journal of International Money and Finance, 56, 1, 1-22.
  26. León-Ledesma, M. A., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2015) Production, technology estimates and balanced growth, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77, 1, 40-65.
  27. Faria, J. R. and P. McAdam (2015) Academic Productivity Before and After Tenure: The Case of the 'Specialist', Oxford Economics Papers, 67, 2, 291-309.
  28. Cantore, C., M. A. León-Ledesma, P. McAdam and A. Willman (2014) Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours and Factor Augmentation, Journal of the European Economic Association, 12, 1, 108-128
  29. Faria, J. R. and P. McAdam (2013) Anticipation of Future Consumption: A Monetary Perspective, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45, 2-3, 423-447.
  30. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2013) Technology, Utilization and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45, 8, 1547-1579.
  31. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2013) Medium Run Redux, MacroEconomic Dynamics. 17, 4, 695-727
  32. Gerke, R., M. Jonsson, M. Kliem, M. Kolasa, P. Lafourcade, A. Locarno, K. Makarskic, and P. McAdam (2013) Assessing Macro-Financial Linkages: A Model Comparison Exercise, Economic Modelling, 31, 1, 253-264.
  33. Christopoulos, D. and P. McAdam (2013) Openness, Efficiency and Technology: An Industry Assesment, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 60, 1, 56-70.
  34. Faria, J. R. and P. McAdam (2012) A new perspective on the Gold Standard: Inflation as a population phenomenon, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 6, 1358-1370.
  35. Klump, R. and P. McAdam and A. Willman (2012) The normalized CES production function: Theory and empirics, Journal of Economic Surveys, 26, 5, 769-799.
  36. Levine, P., P. McAdam and J. Pearlman (2012) Probability Models and Robust Policy Rules, European Economic Review, 56, 2, 246-262.
  37. Choudray, A., P. Levine, P. McAdam, and P. Welz (2012) Happiness Puzzles: Analytical Aspects of the Easterlin Paradox, Oxford Economic Papers, 64, 1, 27-42.
  38. Lombardo, G. and P. McAdam (2012) Financial Market Frictions in a Model of the Euro Area, Economic Modelling, 29, 6, 2460-2485.
  39. Mestre, R. and P. McAdam (2011) Is forecasting with large models informative? An Application using the Area Wide Model, Journal of Forecasting, 30, 3, 303-324.
  40. León-Ledesma, M., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2010) Identifying the aggregate elasticity of substitution with biased technical change, American Economic Review 100, 4, 1330-1357.
  41. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2010) Arrow-Calvo Price Staggering, Manchester School. 78, 6, 556-581.
  42. Levine, P., P. McAdam and J. Pearlman (2008) Quantifying and Sustaining Welfare Gains from Monetary Commitment, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 8, 2543-2583.
  43. Klump, R., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2008) Unwrapping Some Euro Area Growth Puzzles: Factor Substitution, Productivity and Unemployment, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30, 2, 645-666.
  44. Coenen, G. P. McAdam and R. Straub (2008) Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32, 8, 2543-2583.
  45. McAdam, P. and R. Mestre (2008) Evaluating Macro-Economic Models in the Frequency Domain, Economic Modeling, 25, 1137-1143.
  46. Levine, P., P. McAdam and J. Pearlman (2007) Inflation Forecast-Based-Rules and Indeterminacy: A Puzzle and a Resolution, International Journal of Central Banking, 3, 4, 77–100.
  47. McAdam, P. and C. Allsopp (2007) The 50th Anniversary Celebration of ‘A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth’ by Robert M. Solow, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 23, 1.
  48. Klump, R., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2007) Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress in the US: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach, Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 1, 183-192.
  49. Klump, R., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2007) The Long-Term SucCESs of the Neo-Classical Growth Model, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 23, 1, 94-114.
  50. Fazio, G., P. McAdam and R. MacDonald (2007) Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behavior, Open Economies Review, 18, 389-404.
  51. McAdam, P. (2007) US, Japan and the Euro Area: Business-Cycle Features and International Linkages, International Review of Applied Economics, 21, 1, 135-156.
  52. Dieppe, A and P. McAdam (2006) Monetary Policy under a Liquidity Trap: Simulation Evidence for the Euro Area, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 20, 3, 338-363.
  53. Fujiwara, I., P. McAdam and J. M. Roberts (2006) Monetary Policy at the Zero Interest Bound: A Model Comparison Exercise, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 20, 3, 305-313.
  54. McAdam, P. and P. McNelis (2005) Forecasting Inflation with Thick Models and Neural Networks, Economic Modeling, 22, 5, 548-567.
  55. Adalid, R., G. Coenen, P. McAdam and S. Siviero (2005) The Robustness of Interest Rate Rules In Models of The Euro Area, International Journal of Central Banking, 1, 1, 95-132.
  56. Dieppe, A., K. Küster and P. McAdam (2005) Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An analysis using the Area Wide Model, Journal of Common Market Studies, 43, 3, 507-37.
  57. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2004) Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re-Examining Euro-Area New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66, 637-670.
  58. León-Ledesma, M. and P. McAdam (2004) “Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 51, 3, 377-401.
  59. McAdam, P. and A. Willman (2004) Production, Supply and Factor Shares: An Application to Estimating German Long-Run Supply, Economic Modeling, 21, 2, 191-215.
  60. McAdam, P. and O. J. Rummel (2004) Corruption: A non-parametric analysis, Journal of Economic Studies, 31, 6, 509-524.
  61. McAdam, P. and J. Morgan (2004) The Effects of Euro Area Interest Rate Changes: Evidence from Macroeconomic Models, National Institute Review, 187, January, 70-80.
  62. McAdam, P. and A. J. Hughes Hallett (2003) Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation And The Probability Distribution Of Deficits Under The Stability Pact, Journal of Common Market Studies, 41, 3, 421-444.
  63. Henry, J. and P. McAdam (2001) A Retrospective Structural Break Analysis of the French German Interest Rate Differential in the run up to EMU, International Finance Review, 2, 21-49.
  64. McAdam, P. and A. J. Hughes Hallett (1999) Non Linearity, Computational Complexity and Macro Economic modeling, Journal of Economic Surveys, 13, 5, 577-618.
  65. Juillard, M, D. Laxton, P. McAdam, H. Pioro (1998) An Algorithm competition, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 22, 8-9, 1291-1318.

Invited and Papers & Proceedings

1. McAdam, P. and K. Mc Morrow (2003) The Nairu Concept – Measurement Uncertainties, Hysteresis and Economic Policy Role, The Brazilian Journal of Business Economics, 3, 3, 27-62.
2. McAdam P and J. Henry (2001) Alternative Methods for Detecting and Dating Structural Breaks: An Application to the French-German Interest Rate Differential, Computational Intelligence, Papers and Proceedings.

Comments on my papers by others

- - 1. Stewart, Kenneth G. (2017) Normalized CES supply systems: Replication of Klump, McAdam, and Willman (2007), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33, 2, 290-296.
    2. Gerald Daniels Jr. and Venoo Kakar (2017) Normalized CES supply-side system approach: How to replicate Klump, McAdam, and Willman (2007)?, Economics E-Journal (forthcoming)
    3. I. W. Bache, Ø. Røisland and K. N. Torstensen (2011) Interest Rate Smoothing and 'Calvo-type' Interest Rate Rules: A Comment on Levine, McAdam and Pearlman, International Journal of Central Banking, 7,3, 79-90.
    4. Papageorgiou, C. (2008) Comment on 'Unwrapping Some Euro Area Growth Puzzles', Journal of Macroeconomics, 30, 2, 667-670.

Book Chapters

1. 1. León-Ledesma, M., P. McAdam and A. Willman (2012) Aggregation, the Skill Premium and the Two-Level Production Function, in Economic Growth and Development (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Volume 11), edited by O. de La Grandville, Emerald, chapter 15, pp.417-436.
  2. P. McNelis and P. McAdam (2007) Forecasting Inflation with Forecast Combinations, Complexity Hints for Policy, edited by M. Salzano and D. Colander, Springer.
  3. T. Jellema, S. Keuning, P. McAdam and R. Mink (2006) “A Euro Area Accounting Matrix And Its Relevance For ECB Monetary Policy Analysis, in de Janvry, A. and R. Kanbur Poverty, Inequality and Development, Springer.
  4. Karlsson, T. and P. McAdam (2005) The EuroSystem’s Multi-Country Model and the Link Block, in G. Fagan and J. Morgan, J. (Eds.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, Edward Elgar.
  5. Dieppe, A., J. Henry and P. McAdam (2005) “Labour Market Dynamics in the Euro Area: a Model-Based Sensitivity Analysis”, in Monetary Policy and Unemployment: A Conference in Honor of James Tobin, (Ed). W. Semmler, Routledge Press.
  6. McAdam P. and J. Morgan (2003) “Analysing monetary policy transmission at the euro area level using structural macroeconomic models”, in I. Angeloni et al. (eds.) Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area, Cambridge University Press.
  7. McAdam, P. and A. J. Hughes Hallett (2000) “The Stability Pact And The Interdependence Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy Rules”, in The Coordination Of Monetary Policies In Europe, by P. Mooslechner and M. Schurz (eds), Kluwer Academic Press, Boston.
  8. McAdam, P. and A. J. Hughes Hallett (1999) “From Here To Eternity: The Robustness Of Solution Methods to Imperfect Starting Values”, in Hughes Hallett, A J, And P. McAdam, (eds.) Analyses in Macroeconomic Modeling, Kluwer Academic Press.
  9. Juillard, M., D. Laxton, P. McAdam and H. Pioro (1999) “Solution Methods and Non Linear Forward Looking Models”, in Hughes-Hallett, A J, and P. McAdam (eds.) Analyses in Macro Economic Modeling, Kluwer Academic Press.
  10. McAdam, P. and A. J. Hughes Hallett (1999) “Non linearity, Computational Complexity and Macroeconomic Modeling”, in Surveys in Economic Dynamics, D. A. R. George, L Oxley, and S. Potter (eds), Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.
  11. Hughes-Hallett, A. J. and P. McAdam, (1999) Implications of the Growth and Stability Pact: Why the Growth Element is Important, in A. J. Hughes Hallett, Michael Hutchison, and Svend E Hougaard Jensen (eds.), Fiscal Aspects of European Monetary Integration, Cambridge University Press.
  12. McAdam, P. (1999) The Long Run In Macro Economic Modeling: A Guide, in Hughes-Hallett, A J, and P. McAdam, (eds) Analyses In Macro Economic Modeling, Kluwer Academic Press.
  13. Hughes Hallett, A. J. and P. McAdam, (1998) “\Fiscal Deficit Reductions in Line with the Maastricht Criteria: An Empirical Analysis, in Jeffry Frieden, Daniel Gros and Erik Jones, (eds.) The New Political Economy of EMU. Boulder: Rowman and Littlefield. pp. 83-123.

Book

Hughes-Hallett, A. J., and P. McAdam, (eds) (1999) Analyses in Macroeconomic Modeling, Kluwer Academic Press.

More Popular Writings

Firms’ returns to scale: new evidence from European firm-level data (with Meinen, Papageorgiou, Schulte). Deutsche Bundesbank Research Brief No. 73. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4399406
Challenges in the digital age (with Vivian, Petroulakis, Labhard), Voxeu blog August 2019
Concentration, market power, and dynamism in the euro area, Voxeu blog (with Vansteenkiste, Soares, Petroulakis, Eliet, Cavalleri) Aug 2019
On the socially optimal labour share of income, Voxeu blog, June 2019 (with Mućk, Growiec)
Labour market flexibility during financial crises: Firm-level evidence from Spain, VoxEU blog, Oct 2018 (with Popov and Laeven)
Price and wage-setting in advanced economies: Selected takeaways from the ECB’s Sintra Forum, VoxEu blog, Oct 2018 (with Hartmann)
Productivity Growth in the euro area, Research Bulletin, 2007. No. 6, DG Research, European Central Bank, June. (with Willman)
How Do VAT Changes Affect the Economy? An Illustration Using the New Area-Wide Model, Research Bulletin, 2006, No. 4, DG Research, European Central Bank (with Coenen)

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