Publications

Papers

Carabotta, L., and Claeys, P., 2024, Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time. Journal of Forecasting, p.1-35.

Larch, M., Claeys P., and Van der Wielen, W., 2024, Scarring effects of major economic downturns: the role of fiscal policy and government investment, European Journal of Political Economy, 102509.

Cardi O., Restout R., and Claeys, P., 2020, ​Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission​. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 111, p. 1038-15. 

Claeys P., and Vašíček, B., 2019, ​Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries​. International Review of Economics & Finance, vol. 64, p. 62-83.

Claeys P., 2017, ​Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions​, Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 35(82), p. 64-77.

Claeys P., Ramos R. and Suriñach J., 2017, ​Interaction of government tiers and central banks in a federation: an empirical test​, Fiscal Studies, vol. 38(2), p. 301-30.

Cimadomo, J., Claeys P. and Poplawski-Ribeiro M., 2016, ​How do experts forecast spreads?​, European Economic Review, vol. 87, p. 216-35.

Claeys P. and Vasicek B., 2014, Systemic risk and the sovereign-bank default nexus: a network vector autoregression approach, Journal of Network Theory in Finance, vol. 1(4).

Claeys P., 2015, On measuring government activity, Romanian Journal of Fiscal Policy, vol. 6, p. 17-27.

Claeys P., 2015, ​Timing and duration of inflation targeting regimes​, ​Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 33, pp. 18-30.

Claeys P. and Woon Nam C., 2015, Symposium on the public finance after the crisis: Europe. Introduction, Public Finance and Management, vol. 15(3), p. 225-227.

Claeys P., 2015, Timing and duration of inflation targeting regimes, Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 33, pp. 18-30.

Claeys P. and Vasicek B., 2014, MeasuringBilateral Spillover and Testing Contagion on Sovereign Bond Markets in Europe, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 46(1), p. 151-165.

A novel test based on time-varying SVARs and the Qu-perron test, to check contagion on European bond markets.

Claeys P. and Martire F., 2014, If you want me to stay, pay:asymmetric fiscal federalism, Environmental Planning C (forthcoming).

A voting model to show how different types of fiscal federalism may exist, and builds upon the political economy models by Lockwood (2005) and the side-payments model of Harstad (2008).

Claeys P., 2014, Comment on ‘A toolkit to assessing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies’, Applied Economics, vol. 46(6), p. 661-662.

Maravalle A. and Claeys P., 2012, Boom-bust cycles andprocyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy, Journal of Policy Modeling vol. 34(5), p. 735-754.

The Club Med countries are going through a severe economic and fiscal crisis. We argue procyclical fiscal policy is a major culprit as such policy has further inflated economic booms, and now accentuates the bust. We calibrate a small open economy model and show that procyclical policy observed in Spain or Ireland has contributed to economic volatility, and lower economic growth.

Claeys P., Moreno R. and Suriñach J., 2012, Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets, Economic Modelling, vol. 29(1), p. 49-58.

We use spatial statistics to derive a new indicator to measure the degree of financial integration. The application is to sovereign bond markets for a panel of 101 countries, and we compute (time-varying) indicators for EMU, EU, OECD and emerging economies.

Afonso A., Claeys P. and Sousa R., 2011, Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal, Portuguese Economic Journal, vol. 10(2), p. 83-108.

Fiscal policy changes because of social, economic and political developments, subject to debt constraints. We are testing a fiscal rule with markov-switching behaviour for all coefficients, on a novel quarterly dataset for Portugal.

Claeys P. and Manca F., 2011, A missing spatial link in institutional quality, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 18(3), p. 223-227.

History has artificially imposed borders between neighbouring regions. Common cultural, social, economic and political roots should have created rather similar institutions across borders. Surprisingly, we find no evidence of such linkages across countries.

Claeys P., 2009, Sustainabilityof public debt, R. Neck, J. Sturm (Eds.), 2009, MIT Press, Cambridge, 271 pp., International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 18, 4, p. 701-2.

A review of the book by Reinhard Neck and Jan-Egbert Sturm on empirical measures of debt sustainability.

Claeys P., 2008, Rules, and their effects onfiscal policy, Swedish Economic Policy Review, vol. 15(1), p. 7-48.

Fiscal policy changes because of social, economic and political developments, subject to debt constraints. We are testing a fiscal rule with markov-switching behaviour for all coefficients, on a novel quarterly dataset for Sweden.

Claeys P., Ramos R. and Suriñach J., 2008, Fiscal sustainability across government tiers, International Economics and Economic Policy, vol. 5(1-2), p. 139-163.

We test debt responses of fiscal rules in a joint SUR estimation of regional and federal governments. By testing parameter restrictions we can show if regions face soft budget constraints.

Afonso A. and Claeys P., 2008, The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output – the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain, Economic Modelling, vol. 25(1), p. 93-117. (also available as ECB working paper no. 775)

We create a new structural budget indicator that – in contrast to more standard approaches – is based on testable restrictions within a VAR model. The application is to four EU countries.

Claeys P., 2007, Sustainability of EU fiscal policies: a panel test, Journal of Economic Integration, vol. 22(1), p. 112-127.

Standard time-series tests of fiscal sustainability suffer from weak power. I apply more powerful panel tests to test sustainability of fiscal policy in each EU country, and for the EU countries as a whole.

Claeys P., 2006, Policymix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules, Empirica, vol. 33, p. 89-112. (also available as CESIfo working paper no. 1406)

Fiscal rules – like monetary ‘Taylor’ rules – have become commonplace to characterise fiscal behaviour. This is one of the first papers to apply GMM for estimating fiscal rules for G7 countries.

And some book chapters are available here:

 Claeys P., Moreno R. and Suriñach J., 2010, Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Financial and Economic Integration, in: Paez, A., Le Gallo J., Buliung R., Dall’Erba S. (eds.), Progressin Spatial Analysis: Methods and Applications, Springer: Berlin, p. 311-338.

Afonso A. and Claeys P., 2009, The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output, in: Larch M. and Nogueira J. (eds.), Fiscal policymaking in the EU, Routledge: London, p. 106-148.

Arnaboldi F. and Claeys P., 2009, Financial innovation in internet banking: a comparative analysis, in: Anderloni L., Llewellyn D. and Schmidt R. (eds.), FinancialInnovation in Retail and Corporate Banking, Cheltenham: Edwar Elgar, p. 111-145.

Online banking has been a fad for banks during the internet bubble, but has not made a breakthrough. European banks develop online banks as separate branches under the banking group umbrella, or introduce internet products under the banks’ name directly. These alternative strategies are chosen because of IT costs.

Claeys P., 2007, Budgetary spillover and long-term interest rates, in: Van Aarle B. and Weyerstrass K. (eds.), EconomicSpillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area, Berlin: Springer Verlag, p. 55-106. (also available as European Economy, Economic Papers, no. 246)

Responses of long-term rates to public debt are mitigated by financial and economic integration, or by the possibility of a bailout in a common currency area. Imposing restrictions from open-economy models on a VAR including debt and interest rates, I recover significant crowding out- and spillover effects of debt on interest rates in Europe.

Papers submitted

Claeys P., Ramos R. and Suriñach J., 2012, Testing interaction between government levels: an application of FTPL.

Claeys P. and Costa L., 2012, A note on the relationship between the cyclicality of markups andfiscal policy.

Claeys P. and Vasicek B., 2012, Measuring sovereign bond spillover, and the impact of rating news, Czech National Bank working paper no. 7.

Arnaboldi F. and Claeys P., 2010, Innovation and performance in European banks adopting Internet.