Selected journal publications
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2026), "On the Stability of Macroeconomic Relationships in Australia", forthcoming in Australian Economic Review.
Beechey, M., Österholm, P. and Poon, A. (2025), "An International Analysis of the Trend Five-Year Government Bond Rate", Scottish Journal of Political Economy 72, e12381.
Edvinsson, R., Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2025), “Does Money Growth Predict Inflation in Sweden? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions Using Four Centuries of Data”, Empirical Economics 68, 1613-1635.
Kladívko, K. and Österholm, P. (2024), “An Analysis of UK Households’ Directional Forecasts of Interest Rates”, Journal of Business Cycle Research 20, 423-442.
Armelius, H., Solberger, M., Spånberg, E. and Österholm, P. (2024), "The Evolution of the Natural Rate of Interest: Evidence from the Scandinavian Countries", Empirical Economics 66, 1633-1659.
Berger, H., Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2023), "A Note of Caution on the Relation between Money Growth and Inflation", Scottish Journal of Political Economy 70 (5), 479-496.
Beechey, M., Österholm, P. and Poon, A. (2023), "Estimating the US Trend Short-Term Interest Rate", Finance Research Letters 55, 103913.
Kiss, T., Kladívko, K., Silfverberg, O. and Österholm, P. (2023), "Market Participants or the Random Walk – Who Forecasts Better? Evidence from Micro-Level Survey Data", Finance Research Letters 54, 103752.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2023), "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 125 (1), 287-314.
Kiss, T., Mazur, S., Nguyen, H. and Österholm, P. (2023), "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Innovations", Journal of Forecasting 42 (2), 347-368.
Kiss, T., Nguyen, H. and Österholm, P. (2023), “Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?”, Empirical Economics 64, 2183-2213.
Österholm, P. and Poon, A. (2023), "Trend Inflation in Sweden", International Journal of Finance and Economics 28 (4), 4707-4716.
Andersson, F. N. G., Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2022), "Inflation Illiteracy - A Micro-Data Analysis", Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2022:2, 106-119.
Kiss, T., Nguyen, H. and Österholm, P. (2022), "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area", Finance Research Letters 46, 102365.
Kladívko, K. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Can Housholds Predict where the Macroeconomy Is Headed?", Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2021:2, 5-17.
Kladívko, K. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Do Market Participants' Forecasts of Financial Variables Outperform the Random-Walk Benchmark?", Finance Research Letters 40, 101712.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2021), "Anchoring in Surveys of Household Expectations", Economics Letters 198, 109687.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "A Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter Bayesian VAR Analysis of Okun's Law in the United States”, Economics Letters 197, 109622.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2020), "Heterogeneity in Households' Expectations of Housing Prices – Evidence from Micro Data”, Journal of Housing Economics 50, 101731.
Kiss, T. and Österholm, P. (2020), "Fat Tails in Leading Indicators", Economics Letters 193, 109317.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "The Relation between the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread and the Real Economy: Stable or Time-Varying?", Economics Letters 186, 108883.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2020), "A Note on the Stability of the Swedish Phillips Curve", Empirical Economics 59 (6), 2573-2612.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2019), "A Micro-Data Analysis of Households’ Expectations of Mortgage Rates”, Economics Letters 185, 108693.
Karlsson, S. and Österholm, P. (2019), "Volatilities, Drifts and the Relation between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads in Australia”, Finance Research Letters 30, 378-384.
Österholm, P. (2018), "The Relation between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads in Australia: Evidence from VARs", Finance Research Letters 24, 186-192.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2017), "Households’ Mortgage-Rate Expectations – More Realistic than at First Glance?”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2017:2, 57-64.
Stockhammar, P. and Österholm, P. (2017), "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies", Open Economies Review 28 (2), 347-368.
Gustafsson, P., Stockhammar, P. and Österholm, P. (2016), "Macroeconomic Effects of a Decline in Housing Prices in Sweden", Journal of Policy Modeling 38 (2), 242-255.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2014), "Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual-Specific Time Series", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 47, 152-167.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence", International Journal of Central Banking 8 (3), 55-86.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2012), "Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence From Disaggregated US Data", Economics Letters 116 (3), 408-410.
Österholm, P. (2012), "The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when Forecasting the Probability of a US Recession", Journal of Macroeconomics 34 (1), 76-86.
Jonsson, T. and Österholm, P. (2012), "The Properties of Survey-Based Inflation Expectations in Sweden", Empirical Economics 42 (1), 79-94.
Jonsson, T. and Österholm, P. (2011), "The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations", Economics Letters 113 (3), 276-281.
Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs", CESifo Economic Studies 57 (3), 531-550.
Dale, S., Orphanides, A. and Österholm, P. (2011), "Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction", International Journal of Central Banking 7 (2), 3-39.
Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2011), “Does Money Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs”, Economic Record 87 (276), 45-60.
Abrego, L. and Österholm, P. (2010), “External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model”, World Economy 33 (12), 1788-1810.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2010), “Forecasting Inflation in an Inflation Targeting Regime: A Role for Informative Steady-State Priors”, International Journal of Forecasting 26 (2), 248-264.
Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2010), "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables Are Near Integrated: Size Distortions and Partial Remedies", Empirical Economics 39 (1), 51-76.
Österholm, P. (2010), "Unemployment and Labour-Force Participation in Sweden", Economics Letters 106 (3), 205-208.
Österholm, P. (2010), “The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis”, Applied Financial Economics 20 (4), 265-274.
Österholm, P. (2009), "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts", Scandinavian Journal of Economics 111 (2), 387-415.
Beechey, M., Hjalmarsson, E. and Österholm, P. (2009), "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis when Interest Rates Are Near Integrated", Journal of Banking and Finance 33 (5), 934-943.
Berger, H. and Österholm, P. (2009), “Does Money Still Matter for U.S. Output?”, Economics Letters 102 (3), 143-146.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2009), “Time-Varying Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area”, Economic Modelling 26 (2), 532-535.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), “A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady-State Priors for the Australian Economy”, Economic Record 84 (4), 449-465.
Österholm, P. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2008), "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America", IMF Staff Papers 55 (4), 595-623.
Österholm, P. (2008), "Can Forecasting Performance Be Improved by Considering the Steady State? An Application to Swedish Inflation and Interest Rate", Journal of Forecasting 27 (1), 41-51.
Beechey, M. and Österholm, P. (2008), "Revisiting the Uncertain Unit Root in GDP and CPI: Testing for Non-Linear Trend Reversion", Economics Letters 100 (2), 221-223.
Österholm, P. (2008), "A Structural Bayesian VAR for Model-Based Fan Charts", Applied Economics 40 (12), 1557-1569.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2007), "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?", Economic Record 83 (2), 159-173.
Gustavsson, M. and Österholm, P. (2006), “The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates”, Economics Letters 92 (3), 428-433.
Österholm, P. (2005), “The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?”, Bulletin of Economic Research 57 (3), 217-247.
Chapters in books
Kiss, T., Mazur, S., Nguyen, H. and Österholm, P. (2025), "VAR Models with Fat Tails and Dynamic Asymmetry", In: Mazur, S. and Österholm, P. (eds), Recent Developments in Bayesian Econometrics and Their Applications: Festschrift in Honour of Sune Karlsson, Springer Nature, Cham.
Mazur, S., and Österholm, P. (2025), "Introduction", In: Mazur, S. and Österholm, P. (eds), Recent Developments in Bayesian Econometrics and Their Applications: Festschrift in Honour of Sune Karlsson, Springer Nature, Cham.
Österholm, P. (2018), “The Limited Usefulness of Macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when Forecasting the Probability of a US Recession”, In: Estrella, A. (ed), The Economics of Recession vol II, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham. [See also 2012 journal publication in Journal of Macroeconomics.]
Österholm, P. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2008), “The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America”, In: Mühleisen, M., Roache, S. K. and Zettelmeyer, J. (eds), Who’s Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC. [See also 2008 journal publication in IMF Staff Papers.]