Change Point Estimation in Panel Data with Time-Varying Individual Effects

Abstract

Existing panel data methods remove unobserved individual effects before change point estimation through data transformations such as first‐differencing. In this paper, we show that multiple change points can be consistently estimated in short panels via ordinary least‐squares. Since no data variation is removed before change point estimation, our method has better small sample properties compared to first‐differencing methods. We also propose two tests that identify whether the change points found by our method originate in the slope parameters or in the covariance of the regressors with the individual effects. We illustrate our method via modeling the environmental Kuznets curve and the U.S. house price expectations after the financial crisis.

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