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Discussion: Will alternative fuel vehicles affect the operational and supply chain strategies of the automotive industry? Are there parallels in other industries where disruption is/should be taking place?
Discussion: Will alternative fuel vehicles affect the operational and supply chain strategies of the automotive industry? Are there parallels in other industries where disruption is/should be taking place?
Government regulation is a large driving factor towards legitimizing alternative fuel vehicles in the mainstream market, such as California’s 2035 mandate to phase out gasoline powered vehicles. The first-mover companies that have a minimum viable product boast the strongest positions as Klug states alludes to the “make-or-buy” decision making process. It will be more efficient to go to market as a second-mover to “buy” from existing competitor to stay competitive. As regulation deadlines approach, second movers will likely forego R&D and opt to buy while researching in-house methodologies to catch up.
The health and fitness industry saw shifts during COVID-19 shutdowns with companies like Peloton promoting in-home delivery competing with struggling gyms.
https://time.com/5839552/peloton-ceo-john-foley/
The EV disruption has not taken place yet. In fact I would argue it still has another 5-10 years at least as an infrastructure is developed. One intuition is that we see gas stations on almost every corner. It is quick and efficient to gas up a regular car. EV owners, namely Tesla, need to be slightly more strategic. This is an adaptation the average consumer would need to make in order to allow EVs to fully emerge. Consider how many times you have left your home with your gas tank near empty. It is relatively easier than an EV to find a place to find fuel for that gas vehicle. Currently the average consumer does not consider these circumstances and, granted the EV infrastructure has improved greatly, however a combination of solidifying availability of fueling/charging stations. I do think Tesla is a great vehicle and a ground breaking innovator. I just don't think the average consumer is ready to embrace the technology until it can be readily supplied to them.
One more risk to Tesla is they currently make a large portion of their revenue by selling their carbon emission tax credits ($518M in Q1 2021 according to this article from Apr 2021--also available on their 10-Q). As competitors catch up with their EV production, Tesla will need to prepare to offset that potential loss in revenue.
Brand awareness plays a major factor in who will ultimately come out on top. As for rapid adoption, California regulation enacted at the end of last year will force the US market to adapt to a 10% population base that will have new sales of gas powered cars phased out by 2035. Brand names like the F150 will anchor that transition and support legitimacy in the EV market. I do have questions over battery maintenance and durability as well. It seems like Tesla is doubling down on the 8 year/100k-150k mile range on battery life indicated by their warranty. I'm not sure there is sufficient enough data to explore any wide scale actuals yet.
https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty
It is inevitable there will be a shift in fueling/charging infrastructure over time. Especially as the consumer has more readily available access to charging stations. It's curious we don't see major petroleum suppliers embracing these changes (or maybe we're just not seeing those changes here in Alabama). It would be advantageous for a Shell or BP to integrate a charging platform to an already established site that motorists already flock to embrace a disruptive technology that could greatly harm their business model.
I mentioned this in another post but the California phase out of gas powered cars by 2035 is really going to impact the market at large. Granted there will be a focus on the state of CA as the deadline approaches over the next 15 years, but the company that presents the best product will carry over. Ford is strongly on Tesla's heels right now with GM and Chrysler making up ground, but lacking an infrastructure. Ford also has the consumer base to pander to. While Tesla undoubtedly presented a strong Q1 (~$8B in pure EV sales), Ford maintained its clout with ~$33B in auto sales. Although it should be noted that number is not disaggregated on their 10-Q between types of vehicles. I think Tesla provides an innovative niche. I for one am a fan and would absolutely buy one. I am of the opinion that the average consumer will go to the brands they know. Of course, this comment does not take into account international players.
Tesla
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017021000046/tsla-20210331.htm
Ford
https://s23.q4cdn.com/799033206/files/doc_financials/2021/q1/Ford-1Q2021-Earnings-10Q.pdf
California Gas Powered Car Phase out
Great point on the impact of regulation on the growth of EVs. One other note to add that will aid the ascent of EVs is the recent California mandate to phase out the sale of gas powered cars by 2035. This impact will be amplified by the demand created within the state that currently boasts around 10% of the US population. Auto manufacturers will be faced with the burden of getting to market first or being left behind in the state of CA. Ford and Tesla in my opinion are in the forefront of US manufacturers most ready to accomplish this. Tesla has their network of superchargers building while Ford has a similar network called "FordPass" that maps charging networks for users subscribed to it. Although the notable difference here is Tesla owns its network while Ford is operating on a licensing basis. The auto manufacturer that captures California likely gains competitive advantage in the EV market in the US.
I think there's a larger point here that I'm coming around to myself that an alternative fuel disruption may or may not be here, but it is going to happen very soon and quite possibly very suddenly. Reviewing Ford Motor Company's 10-K for 2021 they are grossly aware of the changes ahead under their "Government Standards" section. It really is not a matter of keeping clean for the environment for auto manufacturers. They plain and simply will not be able to sell the same ICE product in many places starting 2025 and beyond with stringent infrastructure requirements being called for. California merely represents the largest piece of the pie in the US auto market and typically makes many of the "first mover" decisions that tend to trickle down to the rest of the country.
Ford 2021 10-K
https://sec.report/Document/0000037996-21-000012/
Discussion Topic: Can new technologies such as Telemedicine, etc. and healthcare delivery alternatives such as Urgent care, etc. have a positive effect on Health Care Operational Excellence?
Discussion Topic: Can new technologies such as Telemedicine, etc. and healthcare delivery alternatives such as Urgent care, etc. have a positive effect on Health Care Operational Excellence?
SUMMARY STATEMENT:
Overall, telemedicine can improve the overall delivery of healthcare with proper due diligence. Many of the pros include greater accessibility, reduced cost, and reduction of errors in network – which are Six Sigma qualities. One concern is the fractionalization of platforms over the next decade. While an individual platform can be accurate, different companies using different platforms can store different information. As the opportunity for new telehealth products grows, our healthcare system will need to seek standardization to ensure consistency in patient care.
There are parallels from various streaming platforms (Netflix & Disney+) where fractionalization can be harmful. The fractionalization of content denigrates the profitability of an individual service as more competition is introduced, forcing consumers to pick and choose content.
https://www.goodrx.com/blog/what-is-telemedicine/
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I agree with the position that there are many conditions that require in-person care. I do think though that there is a higher ceiling for telemedicine in the quality of data that can be collected. While collection of biometric data does not negate the need for human intuition and assessment, it can offer indicators to present early warning signs of more serious conditions. Taking early action in healthcare can be the difference between life and death (not to be so dramatic). But there are many that do not measure their personal vitals until their is a more visible or impact condition, which could be offset by preventative care made more readily available through telehealth!
Thank you for addressing quality of care referencing "hospital-level" care. I think that's very important with the legitimization and progression of the technology. Unfortunately the legal system can setback technology and healthcare decades if there is an error in practice (which as we know is why we have such rigorous implementation standards in our healthcare system today). But also homecare delivery could be a positive disruptive practice and alternative to building a physical infrastructure to care for our aging population. Many smartphone technologies are beginning to address biometric data collection too!
COVID-19 absolutely propelled many technologies that were in trial stages into operations. For better or worse, it legitimized the use of digital products in many fields. As it relates to healthcare, the rapid change forced rapid adoption. Distance and digital interactions gained a lot of trust from wary users.
"Before the COVID-19 pandemic, NYC H+H served more than one million patients and provided less than 500 telehealth visits monthly. From March 2020, however, NYC H+H transformed their system by employing virtual care platforms. They conducted almost 83,000 teleconsultations in one month and more than 30,000 behavioral health encounters via telephone and video."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7971970/
COVID-19 accelerated a lot of technologies prompting us to determine the best operational route and instituting fail fast mentality regarding IT. From the article, "Because of the pandemic, we're witnessing out-of-the-box thinking and once-in-a-lifetime risk-taking that's giving birth to fantastic innovations and great changes — and those stumbling blocks are tumbling down like dominos". Telehealth in mental healthcare is fantastic too. Mental health stands to offer the most immediate impacts of telehealth as there is not as great of a need for an in-person assessment.
To add on to the supplemental aspects of telemedicine, we are also seeing a new preventative capabilities that could find problems early on. To your point, telemedicine cannot replace in person appointments, but we can use biometric data collection to improve the quality of visits and care. For example, high blood pressure can be a sign of many health issues. Documenting and finding trends early can give doctors to the chance to head off a potentially more major health incidents early on.
IT and security concerns with telehealth are greatly overlooked as most software users just pick up the end product and do not necessarily have an understanding for how the underpinnings operate. Everything is a database from Facebook to the Canvas product we're using right now! While a database is a great tool, unfortunately it can be vulnerable and exploited without proper due diligence. There's a case study in another class in our MBA studies that I don't want to spoil for those that haven't taken it, but it centers around a ransomware attack that locks an entire hospital out of it digital system. Just another risk to telehealth to be cautious of.
Discussion- Has Project Management's usefulness been replaced by Technological Advances that are also affecting conventional organizations?
Discussion- Has Project Management's usefulness been replaced by Technological Advances that are also affecting conventional organizations?
SUMMARY STATEMENT:
Technology is a fantastic partner to human task management and execution. As technology improves, our human capabilities to plan and execute project management will improve and change the way we do business, making out outputs produced come faster and more efficiently. We will experience “upskilling”, whereby we learn new technologies and improve our base of understanding alongside improvements like database management systems and AI. The unique nature of project management will not take the human element away from the field, especially as we come to the computing limits of Moore’s law, which has accurately predicted the rise of technological capabilities and increased accessibility. Instead, our partnership with technology will create new and better ways to do business.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp
There is one major theme that I have found through this discussion that I'm glad you highlighted: the collaborative and coordination factor. We can bring many different aspects of project management together through database management tools. Instead of replacing roles, these tools are improving our capabilities to complete tasks. Thus adding a role to the project manager skillset that maintains the database of progress. Monday.com is a popular tool that has streamlined the efficiency of project management. Mostly because it improves the way we communicate!
Blockchain is an amazing technology. There are so many positive attributes including it's decentralization and immutability. Furthermore, the basic concept rests in the idea that a ledger is indexed by a simple majority. Chase Bank actually rolled out a product in its banking ecosystem called Onyx which is a blockchain transaction system. There are some give and takes to it as one of the major benefits of blockchain (and cryptocurrencies) is anonymity. But it's a huge step in driving blockchain technologies to mainstream use. So in that spirit the impact to human job tasks is more of an upskilling than replacement. The role of many accountants and controllers has shifted towards keepers of databases than transactional knowledge. But the need for accountants and controllers still exists because of the function of those roles.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blockchain.asp
Technology does supplant some roles. One debate item I usually walk back to on this is telephone operators from the early 1900s. It's basically a completely defunct human task now, but humans still work for telecommunications companies and operate to deliver a communications product. Granted this is more of a day to day repeatable operational task instead of a specialized PM function. But the underlying concept rests in the notion that our workers are becoming more skilled because of improvements in technology! And as such, we are creating better products faster at a higher efficiency.
https://www.aitelephone.com/blog/telephone-operators/
Many administrative workers dislike technology out fear it will take their jobs. But technology can actually be a beneficial partnership if implemented correctly. Upskilling is one means I feel we will adapt to the expansion of the role of technology in the workplace. Basically, it means learning new skills. As we get better at doing the basics of day to day tasks, we can accomplish higher levels of skilled work and develop better efficiency! Technology has always been a perceived threat to workers that never actualized. It has only increased and improved the skill-level entry into the workforce.
An important aspect on how technology can impact tasks: that it will more so change the way people do business versus replacing human workers. We will have more bandwidth and capabilities to perform tasks and interpret information whereas before technologies like AI existed, much of our time and effort was dedicated towards research and calculations. Since we can better plan for projects, we will be able to execute more projects efficiently because of technology.
Fraud detection is a super neat practice to read into. I stumbled into Benford's Law earlier this year. The underlying principle of Benford's Law generally rests in the notion that the first digit of naturally occurring numbers will follow a regular distributed pattern. Opposingly, numbers that deviate from this proportion usually indicate something natural did not occur, maybe an AI generated data set or human tampering. To the American Express example, deviation from Benford's Law does not always lead to fraud. However, it is a popular algorithm that raises a red flag prompting human intervention. So while AI may never be perfect at preventing fraud, it can be a great partner with it's human counterparts at deterring it!
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