Agent-based Scenario Planning for a Smart & Connected Community against Sea Level Rise in Tampa Bay

Welcome to our project website! This project is currently supported by a planning grant under the Smart & Connected Communities (S&CC) program of the National Science Foundation (NSF) with the award number 1737598.

Motivation

Climate change and sea level rise impacts will affect coastal communities with multiple threats, including increased frequency of compound events - such as storm surge combined with heavy precipitation.

This exacerbates social vulnerability, particularly in underserved communities; stresses coastal ecosystems; and impacts local economies by affecting property values, the tax base, and the cost of insurance, among other factors.

Because of sea level rise, Tampa Bay and Gulf of Mexico coastal communities are vulnerable to many of these impacts, and must build the adaptive capacity and resilience frameworks to respond to these stressors through effective decision support and planning.

Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel. 2015. Recommended Projection of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region.

Overall, better information is needed for governments, planners, coastal managers, and personnel in a variety of agencies for effective communication, decision making and adaptation planning. This requires the participation of key actors to communicate the science, the variability, and the risk of various scenarios to stakeholders. Accurately modeling how these agents may respond to sea level rise scenarios can assist in the creation of policies tailored to local impacts and resilience strategies, and requires a variety of community engagement and planning tools, including scenario planning, gaming, and augmented reality.