C.A.T. Ferro, T.E. Jupp, F. H. Lambert, C. Huntingford and P. M. Cox Model complexity versus ensemble size: allocating resources for climate prediction
Preprint (Univ. of Exeter ,UK)
Keywords
general circulation models, initial-condition ensembles, mean squared error, resolution, weather forecasting
Abstract
The effects of grid resolution and ensemble size on the performance of climate simulations are described with a simple mathematical model, which is then used to define an optimal allocation of computational resources for a range of hypothetical prediction problems. The optimal resolution and ensemble size both increase with available resource but their respective rates of increase depend on the values of two parameters that can be determined from a small number of simulations. The
potential for such analyses to guide future investment decisions in climate prediction is discussed.