P. Ashwin, S. Wieczorek, R. Vitolo and P. Cox Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system
Keywords
Rate-dependent tipping point, bifurcation, climate system
Abstract
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to “tip” or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-induced tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example exhibiting all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasistatic system.