PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLES

42) Lin, W-S, J. R. Norris, M. J. DeFlorio, J. M. Cordeira, J. J. Rutz, and F. M. Ralph (2024b), Characteristics of precipitation patterns in Moisture-dominated versus Wind-dominated atmospheric rivers in western North America. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, in prep.

41) DeFlorio, M. J., J. Wang, I. R. Simpson, N. R. Mascioli, L. Delle Monache, M. Simpson, J. Edwards, N. Rosenbloom, G. Danabasoglu, P. B. Gibson, P. Mulrooney, J. H. Richter, and S. G. Yeager (2024), A high vertical resolution CESM2 hindcast dataset for seasonal prediction analyses. in prep.

40) Luna Niño, R., A. Gershunov, F. M. Ralph, A. Weyant, K. Guirguis, M. J. DeFlorio, D. R. Cayan, and A. P. Williams (2024), Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern U.S. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

39) Yang, Z., M. J. DeFlorio, A. Sengupta, J. Wang, C. M. Castellano, A. Gershunov, K. Guirguis, E. Slinskey, B. Guan, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph (2024), Temporal clustering of unique atmospheric rivers impacting the Western U.S.: seasonality and climate modes modulation. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, submitted.

38) Scheftic, W. D., X. Zeng, M. A. Brunke, M. J. DeFlorio, A. Ouyed, and E. Sanden (2024), On the use of hindcast skill for merging NMME seasonal forecasts across the western U.S. Weather and Forecasting, submitted.

37) Sengupta, A., D. E. Waliser, M. J. DeFlorio, B. Guan, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph (2024), Role of evolving sea surface temperature modes of variability in improving seasonal precipitation forecasts. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, in revision.

36) Guirguis, K., B. J. Hatchett, A. Gershunov, M. J. DeFlorio, R. E. Clemesha, W. T. Brandt, K. Haleakala, C. M. Castellano, R. Luna Niño, A. Tardy, M. L. Anderson, and F. M. Ralph (2024), Reinterpreting ENSO's role in modulating impactful precipitation events in California. Geophysical Research Letters, in revision.

35) Wang, J., M. J. DeFlorio, H. Kim, K. Guirguis, and A. Gershunov (2024b), CMIP6 projections of future MJO changes under steepened moisture gradient conditions over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, in revision.

34) Wang, J., M. J. DeFlorio, A. Gershunov, K. Guirguis, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph (2024a), Association of western U.S. compound hydrometeorological extremes with Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO interaction. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 314. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01449-w.

33) Lin, W-S, J. R. Norris, M. J. DeFlorio, and F. M. Ralph (2024a), Local and object-based perspectives on atmospheric rivers making landfall on the western North American coastline. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 25, 673-688. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0155.1.

32) DeFlorio, M. J., A. Sengupta, C. M. Castellano, J. Wang, Z. Zhang, A. Gershunov, K. Guirguis, R. Luna Niño, R. E. Clemesha, M. Pan, M. Xiao, B. Kawzenuk, P. B. Gibson, W. Scheftic, P. D. Broxton, M. B. Switanek, J. Yuan, M. D. Dettinger, C. W. Hecht, D. R. Cayan, B. D. Cornuelle, A. J. Miller, J. Kalansky, L. Delle Monache, F. M. Ralph, D. E. Waliser, A. W. Robertson, X. Zeng, D. G. DeWitt, J. Jones, and M. L. Anderson (2024), From California's extreme drought to major flooding: Evaluating and synthesizing experimental seasonal and subseasonal forecasts of landfalling atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation during Winter 2022 - 2023. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105, E84-E104. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1.

31) Guirguis, K., A. Gershunov, B. J. Hatchett, M. J. DeFlorio, A. C. Subramanian, R. E. Clemesha, L. Delle Monache, and F. M. Ralph (2023), Subseasonal prediction of impactful California weather in a hybrid dynamical-statistical framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105360.

30) Zhang, Z., M. J. DeFlorio, L. Delle Monache, A. C. Subramanian, F. M. Ralph, D. E. Waliser, M. Zheng, B. Guan, A. Goodman, A. Molod, F. Vitart, A. Kumar, and H. Lin (2023), Multi-model subseasonal forecast skill assessment of water vapor transport associated with atmospheric rivers over the U.S. west coast. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD037608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037608.

29) Castellano, C. M., M. J. DeFlorio, P. B. Gibson, L. Delle Monache, J. F. Kalansky, J. Wang, K. Guirguis, A. Gershunov, F. M. Ralph, A. C. Subramanian, and M. L. Anderson (2023), Development of a statistical subseasonal forecast tool to predict California atmospheric rivers and precipitation based on MJO and QBO activity. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD037360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037360.

28) Guirguis, K., A, Gershunov, B. J. Hatchett, T. Shulgina, M. J. DeFlorio, A. C. Subramanian, J. Guzman-Morales, R. Aguilera, R. Clemesha, T. W. Corringham, L. Delle Monache, D. Reynolds, A. Tardy, I. Small, and F. M. Ralph (2023), Winter wet-dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06361-7.

27) Wang, J., M. J. DeFlorio, B. Guan, and C. M. Castellano (2023), Seasonality of MJO impacts on precipitation extremes over the western U.S. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24, 151-166. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0089.1.

26) Sengupta, A., B. Singh, M. J. DeFlorio, C. Raymond, A. W. Robertson, X. Zeng, D. E. Waliser, and J. Jones (2022), Advances in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction relevant to water management in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E2168-E2175. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0146.1.

25) Wang, J., H. Kim, and M. J. DeFlorio (2022), Future changes of PNA-like MJO teleconnections in CMIP6 models: underlying mechanisms and uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 1-40, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0445.1.

24) White, C. J., D. I. V. Domeisen, N. Acharya, E. A. Adesfsian, M. L. Anderson, S. Aura, A. A. Balogun, D. Bertram, S. Bluhm, D. J. Brayshaw, J. Browell, D. Büeler, A. C-Perez, X. Chourio, I. Christel, C. A. S. Coelho, M. J. DeFlorio, L. Delle Monache, F. Di Giuseppe, A. M. García-Solórzano, P. B. Gibson, L. Goddard, C. González-Romero, R. J. Graham, R. M. Graham, C. M. Grams, A. Halford, W. T. K. Huang, K. Jensen, M. Kilavi, K. A. Lawal, R. W. Lee, D. MacLeod, A. Manrique-Suñén, E. S. P. R. Martins, C. J. Maxwell, W. J. Merryfield, A. G. Muñoz, E. Olaniyan, G. Otieno, J. A. Oyedepo, L. Palma, I. G. Pechlivanidis, D. Pons, F. M. Ralph, D. S. Reis Jr., T. A. Remenyi, J. S. Risbey, D. J. C. Robertson, A. W. Robertson, S. Smith, A. Soret, T. Sun, M. C. Todd, C. R. Tozer, F. C. Vasconelos Jr., I. Vigo, D. E. Waliser, F. Wetterhall, and R. G. Wilson (2022), Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1(aop), 1-57. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1. 

23) Prince, H. D., P. B. Gibson, M. J. DeFlorio, T. W. Corringham, A. Cobb, B. Guan, F. M. Ralph, and D. E. Waliser (2021), Genesis locations of the costliest atmospheric rivers impacting the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL093947. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093947.

22) Gibson, P. B., W. E. Chapman, A. Altinok, L. Delle Monache, M. J. DeFlorio, and D. E. Waliser (2021), Training machine learning models on climate model output yields skillful interpretable seasonal precipitation forecasts. Nature Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 159. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00225-4. 

21) DeFlorio, M. J., F. M. Ralph, D. E. Waliser, J. Jones, and M. L. Anderson (2021), Better subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for water management. EOS, 102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO159749.

20) Cao, Q., S. Shukla, M. J. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2021), Evaluation of the subseasonal forecast skill of floods associated with atmospheric rivers in coastal Western U.S. watersheds. Journal of Hydrometeorology, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0219.1. 

19) Gibson, P. B., D. E. Waliser, A. Goodman, M. J. DeFlorio, L. Delle Monache, and A. Molod (2020b), Subseasonal-to-seasonal hindcast skill assessment of ridging events related to drought over the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD033655. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033655.

18) Guirguis, K., A. Gershunov, M. J. DeFlorio, T. Shulgina, L. Delle Monache, A. C. Subramanian, T. W. Corringham, and F. M. Ralph (2020), Four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific and their relationship to California precipitation on daily to seasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087609. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087609.

17) O'Brien, T. A., A. E. Payne, C. A. Shields, J. J. Rutz, S. Brands, C. Castellano, J. Chen, W. Cleveland, M. J. DeFlorio, N. Goldenson, I. V. Gorodetskaya, H. I. Díaz, K. Kashinath, B. Kawzenuk, S. Kim, M. Krinitsky, J. M. Lora, B. McClenny, A. Michaelis, J. O'Brien, C. M. Patricola, A. M. Ramos, E. J. Shearer, W. Tung, P. A. Ulrich, M. F. Wehner, K. Yang, R. Zhang, Z. Zhang, and Y. Zhou (2020), Detection uncertainty matters for understanding atmospheric rivers. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101, E790-E796. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0348.1.

16) Merryfield, W. J., J. Baehr, L. Batté, E. J. Becker, A. H. Butler, C. A. S. Coelho, G. Danabasoglu, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, D. I. V. Domeisen, L. Ferranti, T. Ilynia, A. Kumar, W. A. Müller, M. Rixen, A. W. Robertson, D. M. Smith, Y. Takaya, M. Tuma, F. Vitart, C. J. White, M. S. Alvarez, C. Ardilouze, H. Attard, C. Baggett, M. A. Balmaseda, A. F. Beraki, P. S. Bhattacharjee, R. Bilbao, F. M. de Andrade, M. J. DeFlorio, L. B. Díaz, M. A. Ehsan, G. Fragkoulidis, A. O. Gonzalez, S. Grainger, B. W. Green, M. C. Hell, J. M. Infanti, K. Isensee, T. Kataoka, B. P. Kirtman, N. P. Klingaman, J.-Yi Lee, K. Mayer, R. McKay, J. V. Mecking, D. E. Miller, N. Neddermann, C. H. J. Ng, A. Ossó, K. Pankatz, K. Pegion, G. C. Recalde-Coronel, A. Reintges, C. Renkl, B. Solaraju-Murali, A. Spring, C. Stan, Y. Q. Sun, C. R. Tozer, N. Vigaud, S. Woolnough, and S. Yeager (2020), Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E869-E896. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1.

15) Gibson, P. B., D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, M. J. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph, and D. L. Swain (2020a), Ridging associated with drought in the Western and Southwestern United States: characteristics, trends, and predictability sources. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2508. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1.

14) DeFlorio, M. J., D. E. Waliser, F. M. Ralph, B. Guan, A. Goodman, P. B. Gibson, S. Asharaf, L. Delle Monache, Z. Zhang, A. C. Subramanian, F. Vitart, H. Lin, and A. Kumar (2019b), Experimental subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting of atmospheric rivers over the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres (S2S Special Issue), 124, 11,242-11,265. doi:10.1029/2019JD031200.

13) Ramos, A. M., A. Wilson, M. J. DeFlorio, M. D. Warner, E. Barnes, R. Garreaud, I. V. Gorodetskaya, D. A. Lavers, B. Moore, A. E. Payne, C. Smallcomb, H. Sodemann, M. F. Wehner, and F. M. Ralph (2019), 2018 International Atmospheric Rivers Conference: Multi-disciplinary studies and high-impact applications of atmospheric rivers. Atmospheric Science Letters, 20:e935. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.935.

12) Gibson, P. B., D. E. Waliser, and M. J. DeFlorio (2019), A critical examination of a newly proposed interhemispheric teleconnection to Southwestern US winter precipitation. Nature Communications, 10, 2687. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10528-y.

11) DeFlorio, M. J., D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, F. M. Ralph, and F. Vitart (2019a), Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill. Climate Dynamics, 52: 309. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4309-x.

10) Myers, T. A., C. R. Mechoso, G. V. Cesana, M. J. DeFlorio, and D. E. Waliser (2018c), Cloud feedback key to 2014-2015 marine heatwave off Baja California. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 4345-4352. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078242.

9) DeFlorio, M. J., D. E. Waliser, B. Guan, D. A. Lavers, F. M. Ralph, and F. Vitart (2018), Global assessment of atmospheric river prediction skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 409-426. doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0135.1.

8) Myers, T. A., C. R. Mechoso, and M. J. DeFlorio (2018b), Importance of positive cloud feedback for tropical Atlantic interhemispheric climate variability. Climate Dynamics, 51: 1707. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3978-1.

7) Myers, T. A., C. R. Mechoso, and M. J. DeFlorio (2018a), Coupling between marine boundary layer clouds and summer-to-summer SST variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 50: 955. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3651-8.

6) Amaya, D. J., M. J. DeFlorio, A. J. Miller, and S.-P. Xie (2017), Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: an observational analysis with CMIP5 comparisons. Climate Dynamics, 49: 1665. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3411-1.

5) Lou, S, L. M. Russell, Y. Yang, L. Xu, M. A. Lamjiri, M. J. DeFlorio, A. J. Miller, S. J. Ghan, Y. Liu, and B. Singh (2016), Impacts of the East Asia monsoon on springtime dust concentrations and its direct effects over China. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 120, 8761-8780. doi:10.1002/2016JD024758.

4) Yang, Y., L. M. Russell, L. Xu, S. Lou, M. A. Lamjiri, R. C. J. Somerville, A. J. Miller, D. R. Cayan, M. J. DeFlorio, S. J. Ghan, Y. Liu, B. Singh, H. Wang, J. Yoon, and P. J. Rasch (2016), Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions, deposition and transport. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121, 6321-6335. doi:10.1002/2015JD024503.

3) DeFlorio, M. J., I. D. Goodwin, D. R. Cayan, A. J. Miller, S. J. Ghan, D. W. Pierce, L. M. Russell, and B. Singh (2016), Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 46: 585. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2600-7.

2) DeFlorio, M. J., S. J. Ghan, B. Singh, A. J. Miller, D. R. Cayan, L. M. Russell, and R. C. J. Somerville (2014), Semi-direct dynamical and radiative effect of North African dust transport on lower tropospheric clouds over the subtropical North Atlantic in CESM 1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 119, 8284-8303. doi:10.1002/2013JD020997.

1) DeFlorio, M. J., D. W. Pierce, D. R. Cayan, and A. J. Miller (2013), Western U.S. extreme precipitation events and their relation to ENSO and PDO in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 26, 4231-4243. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00257.1.

INVITED CONTRIBUTIONS

1) Amaya, D. J., N. E. Bond, A. J. Miller, and M. J. DeFlorio (2016), The evolution and known atmospheric forcing mechanisms behind the 2013-2015 North Pacific warm anomalies. In “A Tale of Two Blobs”, Variations, Spring 2016. U.S. CLIVAR.

BOOK CHAPTERS

1) Vitart, F., C Cunningham, M. J. DeFlorio, E. Dutra, L. Ferranti, B. Golding, D. Hudson, C. Jones, C. Lavaysse, J. Robbins and M. Tippett (2019), Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of weather extremes. In A. Robertson and F. Vitart (Eds). Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction: the gap between weather and climate forecasting,  Elsevier, doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00017-6.