Energy Market Analysis

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

I am the project manager for the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. This is a quarterly business outlook survey that is focused on oil and gas companies (E&P and oilfield support services) located in the 11th Federal Reserve District. If you would like to learn more about the survey or see the current results, please click here.

Energy Transition and Renewables Articles 

• "Texas to get a new type of refinery: a lithium refinery." March 10, 2023 (with Jessica Rindels).

• "Automakers' Bold Plans for Electric Vehicles Spur U.S. Battery Boom." October 11, 2022 (with Jessica Rindels).

• “Electric Vehicles Gain Ground but still Face Price, Range, Charging Constraints.” February 22, 2021.

• “Solar Lights up Outlook for Renewable Energy in Texas.” February 08, 2022.

• "Better Vehicle Batteries Needed to Power Energy Transition." December 21, 2021.

Oil and Gas Articles

• "Capacity Constraints Drive the OPEC+ Supply Gap." April 19, 2022 (with Lutz Kilian and Kunal Patel).

• “The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022.” March 22, 2022.

• "Oil Market's Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals." April 13, 2021 (with Lutz Kilian).

• "How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy." May 19, 2020 (with Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou).

• "Dallas Fed Energy Survey Results Point to Bleak Outlook for Oil Industry." March 26, 2020 (with Kunal Patel).

• "GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom's First 10 Years." August 20, 2019 (with Mine Yucel).

• "Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale's Impact on the Market." May 21, 2019 (with Kunal Patel).

• "Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships." April 9, 2019 (with Grant Strickler). 

• "Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won't Cause Sector Collapse in 2019." (with Kunal Patel).

Selection of recent media hits

• "Climate law spurs 'big jumps' in U.S. battery investment." E&E News (Andres Picon). October 19, 2022.

• "Dallas Fed: ‘There’s no perfect solution for gasoline prices’." Midland Reporter-Telegram (Mella McEwen). March 31, 2022.

• "With U.S. Output Flat and War in Ukraine Stoking Fresh Global Supply Worries, Oil Prices Surge." Natural Gas Intelligence (Kevin Dobbs). March 23, 2022.

• "Here's what oil drillers are saying about the price shock." San Antonio Business Journal (Jessica Corso). March 30, 2020.

• "Pessimism Rocks Shale While One Million Oil Jobs Hang in Balance." Bloomberg (David Wethe). March 26, 2020.

• "Coronavirus in Texas: State agency struggles with deluge of newly jobless" Austin American-Statesman (Bob Sechler). March 25, 2020.

• "Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Oil and Gas Sector Activity Plunges as Low Oil Prices, Coronavirus Take Toll." KMID in Midland, TX. March 25, 2020.

Southwest Economy

• "On the Record: Increased U.S. Energy Supply Helps Offset Tight Global Conditions." 4th quarter 2012

• "Getting Prices Right: Addressing Mexico's History of Fuel Subsidies." 3rd quarter 2013 (with Amy Jordan)

• "Reforma Energética: Mexico Takes First Steps to Overhaul Oil Industry." 2nd quarter 2014 (with Jesus Canas)

• Texas Feels Energy Drain: Lower Oil Prices Weaken Prospects for Job, Economic Growth." 1st quarter 2015 

Dallas Fed Economic Letter

• "Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Futures Market Points to Fundamentals." 6(10), 2011 (with Mine Yucel)

• "Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Market Fundamentals Suggest Otherwise." 6(11), 2011 (with Mine Yucel)

• "Commodity Futures Investing: Method to the Madness." 7(5), 2012 (with Jackson Thies)

• "Market Expectations and Corn Prices: Looking into the Future to Explain the Present." 7(7) 2012 (with Jackson Thies)

• "Renewable Fuel Standards Hit the Blend Wall." 9(2), 2014 (with Mine Yucel)

• "Crude Oil Export Ban Benefits Some... but Not All." 9(7), 2014

• "Plunging Oil Prices: A Boost for the U.S. Economy, a Jolt for Texas." 10(3), 2015 (with Anthony Murphy and Mine Yucel)

Dallas Fed Quarterly Energy Updates (a recent selection) 

• "Signs of Recovery Emerge in the U.S. Oil Market." 3rd quarter 2016 (with Rachel Brasier and Justin Lee)

• "Hopes and Fears about Oversupply Whipsaw Oil Prices." 1st quarter 2016 (with Navi Dhaliwal)

• "Oil Prices Sink in Third Quarter." 3rd quarter 2015 (with Amy Jordan)

• "Oil Prices Retreat Following a Brief Uptick." 1st quarter 2015 (with Kristin Davis)

• "Oil Prices Plummet amid Growing Supply-Demand Imbalances." 4th quarter 2014 (with Kristin Davis)