CV

For a longer version of my curriculum vitae please click here. 

Last updated 04/2024.

Education

• Indiana University, Ph.D., Economics, August 2009

• Osaka University, Fulbright Fellow, September 2002 - August 2003

• University of Massachusetts, Boston, B.A., Economics, 2002

Experience

• Senior Research Economist and Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (January 2020 - present)

• Senior Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (January 2014 - December 2019)

• Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (July 2010 - December 2013)

• Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Ball State University (August 2009 - June 2010)

Research

Publications in refereed journals

• "Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market," Energy Economics, forthcoming.

• "Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings," Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. Joint with Lutz Kilian and Alexander Richter.

• "A Simple Explanation of Countercyclical Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 16(4), 143-171, 2024. Joint with Joshua Bernstein, Alexander Richter, and Nathaniel Throckmorton.

• "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, 44, 225-243, 2022 (with Tyler Atkinson, Alexander Richter, and Nathaniel Throckmorton).

• "Resource Booms and the Macroeconomy: The Case of U.S. Shale Oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, 42, 307-332, 2021 (with Nida Cakir Melek and Mine Yucel).

• "Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials," The Energy Journal, 42(2) 1-30, 2021 (with Grant Strickler).

• "OPEC in the News," Energy Economics, 80, 163-173, May 2019.

• "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, 128(611): 1730-1757, 2018 (with Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton).

• "Inventory Shocks and the Oil-Ethanol-Grain Price Nexus," Economics Letters, 156 58-60, 2017 (with Navi Dhaliwal).

• “Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market, and the World Economy,” The Energy Journal, 36(S) 99-127, 2016 (with Nathan Balke and Mine Yucel).

• “How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Changes in the Relative Price of Oil? Considering Supply and Demand Shocks,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 44 1-19, 2014.

• “The Long-run Macroeconomic Impacts of Fuel Subsidies,” Journal of Development Economics 107C 129-143, 2014.

• “Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States,” Journal of Econometrics 156(2):304-231, 2010 (with Eric Leeper and Nora Traum)

Working papers

• "Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations." Joint with Lutz Kilian and Alexander Richter.

• "Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks." Joint with Lutz Kilian and Alexander Richter.

Book chapters

• "Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy." Joint with Lance Bachmeier. Routledge Handbook of Energy Economics. Routledge, U.K., Sept. 2019.

• "The Impact of Changing Energy Prices on Texas." Joint with Amy Jordan, Nicole Lake and Mine Yucel. Ten-Gallon Economy: Sizing up Economic Growth in Texas, pp. 139-158. Palgrave Macmillan, U.S., Sept. 2015.

Unpublished manuscripts

• "Time-varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates.” Joint with Nora Traum.

Select Dallas Fed publications

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey (2016Q1 - present).

• "Old oil fields reimagined as lithium sources." Southwest Economy. September 20, 2024 (with Vaughn Hajra and Sasha Samperio).

• “Texas to Get a New Type of Refinery: A Lithium Refinery.” Southwest Economy. March 10, 2023 (with Jessica Rindels).

•  “Automakers’ Bold Plans for Electric Vehicles Spur U.S. Battery Boom.” Dallas Fed Economics. October 11, 2022 (with Jessica Rindels).

• “Federal Dollars Could Drive Electric Vehicle Charging Across Texas.” Southwest Economy. Second quarter, 2022 (with Jessica Rindels).

• "Capacity Constraints Drive the OPEC+ Supply Gap." Dallas Fed Economics. April 19, 2022 (with Lutz Kilian and Kunal Patel).

• “The Russian Oil Supply Shock of 2022.” Dallas Fed Economics. March 22, 2022 (with Lutz Kilian).

• “Electric Vehicles Gain Ground but still Face Price, Range, Charging Constraints.” Dallas Fed Economics. February 22, 2021.

• “Solar Lights up Outlook for Renewable Energy in Texas.” Dallas Fed Economics. February 08, 2022 (with Kunal Patel).

• "Better Vehicle Batteries Needed to Power Energy Transition." Dallas Fed Economics. December 21, 2021.

• "Oil Market's Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals." Dallas Fed Economics. April 13, 2021 (with Lutz Kilian).

• "How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy." Dallas Fed Economics. May 19, 2020 (with Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou).

• "Dallas Fed Energy Survey Results Point to Bleak Outlook for Oil Industry." Dallas Fed Economics. March 26, 2020 (with Kunal Patel).

• "GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom's First 10 Years." Dallas Fed Economics. August 20, 2019 (with Mine Yucel).

• "Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale's Impact on the Market. Dallas Fed Economics. May 21, 2019 (with Kunal Patel).

• "Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships. Dallas Fed Economics. April 9, 2019 (with Grant Strickler).

• "Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won't Cause Sector Collapse in 2019. Dallas Fed Economics. February 14, 2019 (with Kunal Patel).

• “Plunging Oil Prices: A Boost for the U.S. Economy, a Jolt for Texas.” Economic Letter 10(3), 2015 (with Anthony Murphy and Mine Yucel)

• “Texas Feels Energy Drain: Lower Oil Prices Weaken Prospects for Job, Economic Growth.” Southwest Economy, 1st quarter 2015

• “Crude Oil Export Ban Benefits Some – but Not All.” Economic Letter 9(7), 2014

• “Reforma Energética: Mexico Takes First Steps to Overhaul Oil Industry.” Southwest Economy, 2nd quarter 2014 (with Jesus Canas)

• “Renewable Fuel Standards Hit the Blend Wall.” Economic Letter 9(2), 2014 (with Mine Yucel)

• “Getting Prices Right: Addressing Mexico’s History of Fuel Subsidies.” Southwest Economy, 3rd quarter 2013

• “On the Record: Increased U.S. Energy Supply Helps Offset Tight Global Conditions.” Southwest Economy, 4th quarter 2012

• “Commodity Futures Investing: Method to the Madness.” Economic Letter 7(5), 2012 (with Jackson Thies)

• “Market Expectations and Corn Prices: Looking into the Future to Explain the Present.” Economic Letter 7(7), 2012 (with Jackson Thies)

• “Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Futures Market Points to Fundamentals.” Economic Letter 6(10), 2011 (with Mine Yucel)

• “Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Market Fundamentals Suggest Otherwise.” Economic Letter 6(11), 2011 (with Mine Yucel)