Research

Last updated: January 13, 2023

Research interests

Economic Development, Technological Change & Growth; International Economics: Trade and Market Integration, Financial Crises; Applied Panel and Time Series Econometrics; Early Modern Asia (Qing China, Tokugawa/Meiji Japan)

Financial Crises

'Commodity Prices and Banking Crises'
Journal of International Economics, 2021, with Andrea Presbitero
*Replication Data*Published version (gated)*Appendix*VoxEU column*Earlier version: IMF WP 18/153*

‘Banking Crises and the International Transmission of Vulnerability’ with Jakob Madsen and Andrea Presbitero (work in progress)

'(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default: An Empirical Evaluation', July 2021*Earlier version: CEPR DP 13084*

Economic Development, Technological Change & Growth

Work in Progress and Working Papers

‘The Causal Effects of the Darker Side of Financial Development’ with Rachel Cho and Rodolphe Desbordes, June 2022
*Earlier version: CEPR DP 17022*VoxEU column*

'Climate Change and Economic Prosperity: Evidence from a Flexible Damage Function' with Rodolphe Desbordes, submitted September 2022

'Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth' with Vanessa Boese
Resubmitted to the Review of Economics and Statistics, December 2022 *CEPR DP 16587*

'How does democracy cause growth?' with Vanessa Boese, submitted August 2022 [10min video summary of this paper (from 53:50); mention in O Globo article]

Published and Forthcoming Research

'Democracy, Growth, Heterogeneity and Robustness'
European Economic Review, 2022
*Online Appendix*Data & code*Published version (open access)*

'Estimating and Testing the Multicountry Endogenous Growth Model'
Journal of International Economics, 2020 with Stef De Visscher and Gerdie Everaert
*Online Appendix*Data & Matlab code*Published version (gated)*WP version*

'The Magnitude of the Task Ahead: Macro Implications of Heterogeneous Technology'
The Review of Income and Wealth, 2020 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'Nonlinearities in the relationship between debt and growth: (no) evidence from over two centuries'
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2019
VoxEU talk (RES 2014). Column in The Conversation (May 2014). Media coverage: Financial Times (7th April 2014).
*Data (zipped Excel files)*Published Version (gated)*Technical Appendix*WP version*

'The Effect of Agricultural Technology on the Speed of Development'
World Development, 2018 with Dietz Vollrath
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'Public debt and growth: heterogeneity and non-linearity'
Journal of International Economics, 2015 with Andrea Presbitero
VoxEU column. Media coverage: Financial Times (7th April 2014)*Replication data & do files*Technical Appendix*Open Access Published Paper*
This paper was ranked 3rd in the Google Scholar ranking for the Journal of International Economics (on the basis of citations for 2015-19).

'Do spillovers matter when estimating private returns to R&D?'
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013 with Christian Helmers and Hubert Strauss
*Replication data & do files*xtmg*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis'
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2013 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Technical Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'Structural Change and Cross-Country Growth Empirics'
World Bank Economic Review, 2013 with Francis Teal
*Data*xtmg*Supplemental Appendix*Published Version (Gated)*WP version*

'Econometrics for Grumblers: A New Look at the Literature on Cross-Country Growth Empirics'
Journal of Economic Surveys, 2011 with Francis Teal
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'It's not Technical Progress: Empirical TFP Determination and Structural Change'
Oxonomics, 2008.
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

Market Integration in Qing China

'Sources of market disintegration in 18th century China' with Daniel Bernhofen, Jianan Li, and Stephen Morgan (work in progress)

'Assessing market integration in the early modern period', submitted August 2022, with Daniel Bernhofen, Jianan Li, and Stephen Morgan *Data for 209 Chinese prefectures*Data for 20 Belgian markets*Online Appendix* This paper replaces: 'Assessing market (dis)integration in early modern China and Europe'*CEPR DP 11288*CESifo WP No. 5580*Earlier Appendix* and 'The Evolution of Markets in China and Western Europe on the Eve of Industrialisation'

Patents

'What Can Explain the Chinese Patent Explosion?'
Oxford Economic Papers, 2017 with Christian Helmers and Zhihong Yu
GEP Briefing; VoxEU. Media: FT Investment Adviser; China Daily; BBC World Service; Rathbones Review
*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

'Patent litigation in China: protecting rights or the local economy?'
Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment & Technology Law, 2016
with Brian J. Love and Christian Helmers*Published Version (ungated)*
Article in Intellectual Asset Management magazine (March/April 2016), iam blog entry. Article in Mitteilungen der Deutschen Patentanwalte (04/2017)

'The Heterogeneous Effect of Software Patents on Expected Returns: Evidence from India'
Economics Letters, 2016
with Marcel Fafchamps, Christian Helmers and Manasa Patnam*Online Appendix*Published Version (gated)*WP version*

Older Working Papers

'The Role of Crop Type in Cross-Country Income Differences', April 2016, with Dietz Vollrath

*Data*xtmg*CEPR discussion paper DP11248*

'Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models' November 2013, with Stephen R Bond

*Data*xtmg*Online Appendix*

'Panel Estimation for Worriers' November 2010, with Anindya Banerjee and J James Reade

Stata Routines

'Estimating discrete choice panel data models with interactive fixed effects', September 2017 (article introducing xtnlmg). Work in progress

'Estimating panel time series models with heterogeneous slopes.' Stata Journal Vol.12(1), pp. 61-71, April 2012 (article introducing xtmg).

'MULTIPURT: Stata module to run 1st and 2nd generation panel unit root tests for multiple variables and lags' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.

'Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data' Presentation providing an overview of macro panel methods, given at the UK Stata User Group Meeting, September 2011.

'XTCD: Stata module to investigate Variable/Residual Cross-Section Dependence' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.

'XTMG: Stata module to estimate panel time series models with heterogeneous slopes' IDEAS: Statistical Software Components, February 2011.

Background Papers, Books and Book Chapters

'Empirical Development Economics' with Mans Soderbom and Francis Teal (lead authors), Simon Quinn and Andrew Zeitlin. Book manuscript, Routledge UK. Three chapters on Panel Time Series econometrics (publication date: September 2014)

'Growth, Employment, and Industry in Nigeria' with Francis Teal, in: Volker Treichel (ed.) Putting Nigeria to Work: A Strategy for Employment and Growth, Chapter 3, Washington: The World Bank, June 2010.

'Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire: Changing Places' with Francis Teal, in: Institut de Haute Études Internationales et du Développement (eds.) Revue internationale de politique de développement – Afrique: 50 Ans d'Indépendance, pp.33-49, Graduate Institute, 2010.

Cross-country Growth Empirics for Grumblers: Modelling Technology in Agriculture and Manfuacturing using Cross-country Panel Datasets, Saarbrücken: VDM Verlag, 2010. ISBN: 978-3-639-22559-4. (DPhil thesis)

'The Empirics of Economic Growth: A Dual Economy Approach' in: United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (eds.) Growth, Exports and Technological Change in Developing Countries: Contributions from Young Scholars, pp.9-21, Vienna: UNIDO, 2009.

'Extent and Causes of Global Shifts in Manufacturing' with Francis Teal, October 2007, Background Paper: UNIDO Industrial Development Report 2009 (Chapters 2, 4-5).

'China, the WTO, and the End of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing' with John Thoburn, in: Zhang, H. (ed.) Marginalization in China, Ashgate, 2007.

'Challenges to Vietnam in the global garment and textile value chain' with John Thoburn, Khalid Nadvi, and Chris Edwards, in: Guliani, E., R. Rabellotti and M. P. van Dijk (eds.) Clusters Facing Competition: The Importance of External Linkages, Ashgate, 2005.

Earlier Publications on Manufacturing Sourcing & guanxi

As a result of my previous work at the University of Bath I have a number of publications on sourcing strategies for manufacturing in China and on the changing nature of guanxi. More information can be found here.