Matthew Osborne

I am an associate professor of marketing at University of Toronto. My research interests include quantitative marketing, empirical industrial organization, behavioral economics, and machine learning. I am also the director of the Master of Management of Innovation at the Institute for Management of Innovation (IMI), and the Marketing Area PhD Coordinator at the Rotman School of Management.

Link to my CV

Research Currently in Progress

"The Effect of Online Product Reviews on Product Variety," (with Ying Bao, Limin Fang, and Zining Liu)

"Quantifying the Heterogeneous Impact of Recent FDA Changes to the Nutrition Facts Label," (with Yiqi Li and Anocha Aribarg)

"Interactive Customer Feedback in the Digital Economy: When and How Should Content Creators Respond to Customers?" (with Minjee Sun)

"The Role of Cognitive Costs in Consumer Response to Changes in the Purchase Environment," (with Andrew Ching)

Selected Working Papers

"Technology and Market Power: The United States Cement Industry, 1974-2019," June 2023, (with Nathan Miller, Gretchen Sileo and Gloria Sheu) [link]

"The Impact of Dollar Store Access on Local Market Structure and Food Access," January 2023 (with El Hadi Caoui and Brett Hollenbeck) [link]

"A Neuro-Autopilot Theory of Habit: Evidence from Canned Tuna," June 2022 (with Ryan Webb, Clarice Zhao, Peter Landry and Colin Camerer) [link]

"Broadcasting Promotions or Just Promotions? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Multi-Product E-Tailing," March 2022, (with Xin Chen and Yunhao Huang), revise and resubmit at Management Information Systems Quarterly.

"BMI, Food Purchase, and Promotional Sensitivity," November 2021, with Ying Bao, Ted Jaenicke and Emily Wang [link to latest draft on SSRN, link to June 2020 draft].

"BMI/Obesity and Consumers’ Price Sensitivity: Implications for Food Tax Policies," May 2019 (first version September 2018), with Ying Bao, Ted Jaenicke and Emily Wang, revise and resubmit at PNAS Nexus [link to May 2019 draft].

"The Simplification Paradox: Does Reducing Cognitive Complexity Always Improve Retirement Savings Contributions?," with Avni Shah, Andrew Fertig, Jacklyn Lefkowitz, Alissa Fishbane, and Dilip Soman. Draft available on request; Revise and resubmit at Journal of Consumer Research

“Sending out an SMS: Automatic Enrolment Experiments for Overdraft Alerts,” August 2021 (with Michael Grubb, Darragh Kelly, Jeroen Nieboer and Jonathan Shaw), revise and resubmit at Journal of Finance. This paper combines and adds to analysis in the following working papers:

"Time to Act: A Field Experiment on Overdraft Alerts," July 2018, with Paul Adams, Michael Grubb, Darragh Kelly, and Jeroen Nieboer [link]
"Sending out an SMS: The Impact of Automatically Enrolling Consumers into Overdraft Alerts," May 2018, with Andrea Calflish, Michael Grubb, Darragh Kelly and Jeroen Nieboer [link]

"Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Supply in a Storable Goods Market", (Preliminary Draft, updated November 2012) [link]

Published Papers

"Identifying Heterogeneity Using Recursive Partitioning: Evidence from SMS Nudges Encouraging Voluntary Retirement Savings in Mexico," Accepted at PNAS Nexus, with Avni Shah, Jacklyn Lefkowitz, Alissa Fishbane, and Dilip Soman. [link to working paper]

"Does Visual Salience Affect Credit Card Choice?", (Behavioural Public Policy, 1–18, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2021.14), with Matt Hilchey and Dilip Soman.

"Finding Mr. Schumpeter: Technology Adoption in the Cement Industry," (RAND Journal of Economics, Vol. 52(1), 2021, pp. 78-99), with Jeffrey Macher and Nathan Miller.

"Identification and Estimation of Forward-looking Behavior: The Case of Consumer Stockpiling," (Marketing Science, Vol. 39(4), 2020, pp. 707-726, link to June 2019 version with online appendices, link to October 2018 version with online appendices; link to April 2017 version including online appendix) with Andrew Ching. Finalist for the 2020 John D.C. Little Best Paper Award.

"Frequency vs Depth: How Changing the Temporal Process of Promotions Impacts Demand for a Storable Good," Japanese Economic Review, Special Issue: Bridging Marketing and Economics, Vol 69(3), 2018, pp. 258-283 (lead article) [link]

"Approximating the Cost-of-Living Index for a Storable Good", (American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Vol. 10(2), May 2018, pp. 286-314) [link to January 2017 version including online appendix, link to November 2014 Version]

"Pass-Through in a Concentrated Industry: Empirical Evidence and Regulatory Implications" (RAND Journal of Economics, Vol 48(1), Spring 2017, pp. 69-93) [link] with Nathan Miller and Gloria Sheu.

"Cellular Service Demand: Biased Beliefs, Learning, and Bill Shock", with Michael Grubb, American Economic Review, Vol 105(1), January 2015, pp 234-271. (July 2013 version is available here, February 2012 version is available here, with previous online appendix here.)

Online Appendix for "Cellular Service Demand: Biased Beliefs, Learning, and Bill Shock" [link]

"Spatial Differentiation and Price Discrimination in the Cement Industry: Evidence from a Structural Model", with Nathan Miller, RAND Journal of Economics, Vol 45(2), Summer 2014, pp. 221-469 (lead article) [link to latest working paper] (link to April 2011 version)

"Consistency and Asymptotic Normality for Equilibrium Models with Partially Observed Outcome Variables", with Nathan Miller, Economics Letters, Vol 123(1), April 2014, pp. 70-74 [link to working paper version]

"Consumer Learning, Switching Costs and Heterogeneity: A Structural Examination", Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Volume 9, Number 1, March 2011 , pp. 25-70(46) [link to working paper version]

Technical Appendix for Consumer Learning, Switching Costs and Heterogeneity: A Structural Examination [link]