The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs
Robert E. Hall and Marianna Kudlyak, Labour Economics, 2022, Vol. 79, 102244. Link
Download jobless unemployment series, updated March, 2025
Download slides Jan 13, 2021
Video presentation by Bob Hall at Banco Central de Chile on Jan 7 2021
Abstract: Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups---those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. Jobless unemployment reached its pandemic peak in November 2020, at 4.9%, modest by historical standards, and has declined at a faster-than-historical pace since.
Paper in Working Paper series: FRBSF, Hoover Institution, CEPR , IZA, NBER, Paper Feb 2022