A short published version:
Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-At-Home Orders Published Paper
Marianna Kudlyak and Erin Wolcott, Economics Letters 242(5):111894.
Abstract: We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16--22, 2020 triggered mass layoffs equal to half a percent of the population in just one week. Our findings contribute to explanations for why job loss in 2020 was synchronous and catastrophic, yet temporary.
Paper in Working Paper series: FRB SF, CEPR, Hoover Institution, IZA, SSRN
A long original version:
Pandemic Layoffs Paper
Marianna Kudlyak and Erin Wolcott, May 2020
Abstract: Using CPS monthly data and high-frequency state-level data from the Federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, we find that the pandemic layoffs in March-April 2020 were predominately temporary. This is in contrast to job loss during the most recent recessions when most layoffs were permanent. Permanent job loss triggers a protracted re-employment process and is a key factor behind slow recoveries of unemployment. We discuss risks of the pandemic layoffs turning into permanent job loss.