I am a macroeconomist with research interests in labor markets and consumer finance.


Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Rochester

CV&Contact
Google Scholar Citations EconPapers Author Statistics

  • Senior Economist at the FRB San Francisco, May 2016 - present FRBSF Profile
  • Economist at the FRB Richmond, Aug 2008 - May 2016 FRBR Profile
  • Visiting Scholar:
    • UC Berkeley, Jan - Jul 2016
    • University of Texas, Austin, April 2016
    • CIREQ, Montreal, CANADA, April 2015, June 2015
    • FRB St. Louis, St. Louis, December 2013

Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed here are my own and do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System.

News

Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index LINK to the index on the FRB Richmond website, updated monthly

The Non-Employment Index is an alternative measure of resource utilization in the labor market developed by Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange and updated monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond on https://www.richmondfed.org/ The NEI is a weighted sum of all the non-employed expressed as the share of the civilian noninstitutionalized population 16 years and older where the weight for each group is given by its transition rate to employment relative to the highest transition rate among all groups (the transition rate of the short-term unemployed). The weights are designed to account for persistent differences in employment probabilities among the non-employed. Motivation for the NEI comes from an increase in the number of non-employed individuals who are not counted as the unemployed by the official statistics. (Reference: "Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market," by Hornstein, Kudlyak and Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015. PDF Slides)


Research Themes:

  • Unemployment, OLF
  • Wages
  • Job Search
  • Consumer Debt
  • Young Borrowers
  • Mortgage Default




Working Papers

Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories, Paper New Draft May 2017

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange


Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort, Paper and Slides Updated 2016/12

by Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-24.

Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market Paper New 2017/02

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak, 2017, FRB San Francisco WP No. 17-05.

Submitted


Systematic Job Search: New Evidence from Individual Job Application Data PDF

Marianna Kudlyak, Damba Lkhagvasuren and Roman Sysuyev, April 2012, Richmond FED WP No. 12-03R, Revision requested by the Journal of Labor Economics

This paper was initially posted under the title "Sorting by Skill Over the Course of Job Search."

Presentations: 
U Toronto (2013), SED, Seoul, Korea (2013),  North American Summer Meeting, LA (2013), U Warwick (2013), SOLE, Boston (2013), ASSA, San Diego (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2012), UC Berkeley (2012)


Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit, Paper and Slides Updated 2016/12

by Andra Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, 2015, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-31.
Submitted

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data  Paper and Slides Updated 2016/8

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, and John Mondragon, FRB SF WP No. 16-20

Submitted


The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration Paper and Slides Updated 2017/2

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak, FRB San Francisco WP No. 16-13

Submitted


Accounting for Unemployment in the Great Recession: Nonparticipation Matters, PDF

Marianna Kudlyak and Felipe Schwartzman, FRB Richmond WP No. 12-04


Marianna Kudlyak, September 2010, Richmond FED WP No. 10-13. For Supplementary Appendix click here.

This is an unpublished 2009 paper that describes the user cost of labor. The key point of this paper is published in "The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor", JME 2014.



Publications

Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis  Paper and Slides and Data

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M. Sanchez, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, Vol. 77: 48-69. Link


The CARD Act and Young Borrowers: The Effects and the Affected PDF

Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2016, Vol. 48(7): 1495-1513

The paper previously circulated under title "Are Young Borrowers Bad Borrowers? Evidence from the Credit CARD Act of 2009"

Presentations: ASSA, Boston (2015), SED (June 2014)*, New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payment Markets (October, 2013)*, ASU*

Media coverage:  WSJ, The Guardian, NBC News, Bankrate, Bloomberg, Forbes, Fox Business, UniBul Credit Card Blog, Global Association of Risk Professionals, The State, Chicago Tribune, Yahoo! News, Sun Herald, Morningstar, College Times, KGW-TV, Portland, OR, NBC Washington


The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor Link, Richmond FED WP, Nov 2007 version

by Marianna Kudlyak, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2014, Vol. 68: 53-67.

Supplementary Materials

Presentations: Boston College (March 2014), ASSA, Denver CO (2011), Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (2009), Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May 2009), System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May 2009), New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April 2009), FRB Kansas City (2008), FRB Cleveland (2008), UC Santa Cruz (2008), University of Montreal (2008), Wilfrid Laurier University (2008), Kyiv School of Economics (2008).


Productivity Insurance: The Role of Unemployment Benefits in a Multi-Sector Model Link, Richmond FED WP.

by David L. Fuller, Marianna Kudlyak and Damba Lkhagvasuren, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, Vol. 47: 39-53.  

Presentations: ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, PA (2014)*, Fall Midwest Macro Meeting (2013)*, Stockman Conference at Rochester (2012)*.

Media coverage: NED-DGE Blog


Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from U.S. States Link, Richmond FED WP.

by Andra C. Ghent and Marianna Kudlyak, Review of Financial Studies, 2011, 24:9, 3139-3186. 


Articles in Federal Reserve Journals


What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market?, Link

Jason Faberman and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Perspectives, FRB Chicago, Vol. 40(1), 2016.

Media coverage:Mortgage News Daily


Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession, PDF

Marianna Kudlyak and Juan M Sanchez. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2016 (lead article).


What We Know About Real Wage Adjustment during the 2007-09 Recession and Its Aftermath, PDF

Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, Vol. 101(3), 2015.

Flows To and From "Working Part-Time for Economic Reasons" and the Labor Market Aggregates in the Aftermath of the 2007-09 Recession, Link PDF

Maria E. Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, Guannan Luo, Marisa Reed, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q 2015.

Media coverage:Digital Journal, Economist's View


Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market, PDF Link Slides

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2015.

A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation, PDF Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 1Q 2013.

Media coverage: White House CEA Report

Housing Services Price Inflation, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 3Q 2012.


Accounting for the Non-Employment of U.S. Men, 1968-2010, PDF
Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, and Jonathan Tompkins, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 4Q, 2011.


Are Wages Rigid Over the Business Cycle?, Link
Marianna Kudlyak, Economic Quarterly, FRB Richmond, 2Q, 2010.


Short Articles in Federal Reserve Journals


Measuring Labor Utilization: the Non-Employment Index

Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Letter, FRB San Francisco, March 2017, forthcoming.


Why Are Women Leaving the Labor Force?

Maria Canon, Helen Fessenden, and Marianna Kudlyak. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, November 2015.

Media coverage:Quartz.


Aging and the Economy: the Japanese Experience

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, October 2015.

How Should the Fed Interpret Slow Wage Growth?

Marianna Kudlyak, Thomas Lubik, Karl Rhodes. Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, February 2015.
Media coverage:WSJ.

Youth Labor Force Participation Continues to Fall, but It Might Be for a Good Reason,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Yang Liu. The Regional Economist, FRB St.Louis, January 2015.


Is Involuntary Part-Time Employment Different after the Great Recession?,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, July 2014.

Media coverage: WSJ Blogs


Does the Unemployment Rate Really Overstate Labor Market Recovery?,

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak, and Fabian Lange, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2014.

Data: Index Series for Economic Brief, Annual

Working paper: A New Measure of Resource Utilization in the Labor Market

Media coverage: WSJ, WashingtonExaminer.com, Reuters


Not Everyone Who Joins the Ranks of the Employed Was “Unemployed”,

Maria Canon, Marianna Kudlyak, and Marisa Reed, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, January 2014.
Media coverage: St Louis Post-Dispatch

How Risky Are Young Borrowers,
Peter Debbaut, Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, December 2013.

 A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate, 
Maria Canon
, Peter Debbaut, and Marianna Kudlyak, The Regional Economist, FRB St. Louis, October 2013.

Media coverage: Macromania


Job Search Behavior: Lessons from Online Job Search,
Marianna Kudlyak, and Jessie Romero, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, April 2013.

The Increased Role of Flows Between Nonparticipation and Unemployment During the Great Recession and the Recovery
Marianna Kudlyak, and David Price,
Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, June 2012.


The Responses of Small and Large Firms to Tight Credit Shocks: the Case of 2008 through the Lens of Gertler and Gilchrist (1994)
Marianna Kudlyak, David Price, and Juan M. Sanchez, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, October 2010.

Comparing Labor Markets across Recessions: a Focus on the Age Composition of the Population
Marianna Kudlyak, Devin Reilly, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond , April 2010.


Deterring Default: Why Some State Laws Decrease the Probability of Mortgage Foreclosures
Andra C. Ghent, Marianna Kudlyak, and Stephen Slivinski, Economic Brief, FRB Richmond, Sept 2009.

Media coverage: The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, CBS, The New Republic.



Work in Progress


Underemployment in an Equilibrium Search and Matching Model

Marianna Kudlyak and Guannan Luo

Draft available upon request.


Wages Over the Business Cycle

Marianna Kudlyak

Draft available upon request.


Estimating the Trend in the Labor Force Participation Rate Slides, Dec 2013  

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Presentations: FRB St. Louis (2013), A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (2013)


Measuring Government Consumption Multiplier from Household Retail Purchase Data Abstract

Bill Dupor, Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak, and Saif M. Mehkari

Presentations: The 31st Congress of European Economic Association (Aug 2016, by Kudlyak), Society of Economic Dynamics, Toulouse, France (June, 2016, by Dupor), FRBR-UVA Research Jamboree, UVA (May 2016, by Karabarbounis), 6th Ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data (Dec 2015, by Karabarbounis)

Draft available upon request.


Discussions


14. "Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires," by Mark Gertler, Chris Huckfeldt and Antonella Trigari

at the CADRE Conference, FRB Kansas City, May 9-10, 2017.


13. "Allocative and Remitted Wages: New Facts and Challenges for Keynesian Models," by Susanto Basu and Chris House,

at the Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, FRB SF, March 31, 2017.


12. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," by Hie Joo Ann and James D Hamilton,

at the Annual Macroeconomics Conference, UC Irvine, October 28, 2016.


11. "Credit Growth and the Financial Crisis: A New Narrative," by Stefania Albanesi, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal,

at the “Commercial-Housing-Urban-Macro (CHUM) Conference”, FRB Atlanta and University of Wisconsin-Madison, Atlanta, October 14-15, 2016. 


10. "Endogenous Wage Rigidity and Labor Force Participation," by Cynthia L. Doniger and David López -Salido,

at the “New Developments in Macroeconomics of Labor Markets,” Kiel-FRB NY, NYC, NY, Sept 8-9, 2016.


9. "Grown-Up Business Cycles" by Benjamin Pugsley and Ayşegül Şahin,
New Developments in the Macroeconomics of Labor Markets, CREI, Barcelona, September 18-19, 2015.


8. "Aging and Deflation: Japanese Experience" by Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara,
Macro Montreal "New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis", HEC Montreal, June 1-2, 2015.

7. "Firing Costs and Labor Market Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Analysis" by Gonzalo Llosa, Lee Ohanian, Andrea Raffo and Richard Rogerson,
System Macro Meeting, LA Branch of FRB SF, April 13-14, 2015.

6. “How Sticky Wages in Existing Jobs Can Affect Hiring" by Mark Bils, Yongsung Chang and Sun-Bin Kim,
Recent Developments in the U.S. Labor Market: Analysis and Policy Responses, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, October 2013.

5. “Rebuilding Household Credit Histories: Slow Jobless Recovery from Mortgage Crises” by Guannan Luo,
2013 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, October 2013.

4. “The Trend Is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries by Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu,
Employment Consequences of the Great Recession, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2012.

3. “Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market,” by Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni Violante,
Employment and Education Conference, FRB Atlanta Center for Human Capital Studies, September 2011.

2. “What Drives Movements in the Unemployment Rate?” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura,
New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, NYC, April 2010.

1. “Firm Entry and Labor Market Dynamics,” by Pedro Silos and Enchuan Shao,
Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto, May 2009.




Teaching: Micro Data for Macro Models Course webpage

This is a PhD-level mini-course that covers topics on micro data for macro models. Currently, the course covers two modules: (1) Wage Rigidity, (2) Matching Efficiency.

Seminar Presentations

  • FRB Cleveland (forthcoming),
  • UCS (2017-03-30),
  • UC Davis (2016-11-02),
  • Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands (2016-09-26), 
  • Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands (2016-09-23),
  • UC Santa Cruz (2016-05-05), 
  • UT Austin (2016-04-15),
  • UC San Diego (2016-03-28),
  • BLS (2016-03-23),
  • U.S. Census (2016-03-24),
  • FRB San Francisco (2016-02), 
  • Houston University (2016-02-22), 
  • European University Institute, Florence, Italy (2015),
  • FRB Philadelphia (2015),
  • FRB Chicago (2015),
  • FR Board (2015),
  • University of Montreal, Canada (2015),
  • Elon University (2015),
  • FRB NY (2014),
  • VCU (2014),
  • Boston College (2014),
  • FRB St Louis (2013),
  • University of Toronto, Canada (2013),
  • University of Warwick, UK (2013),
  • University of California Berkeley (2012),
  • FRB Richmond (2008),
  • FRB Kansas City (2008);
  • University of California Santa Cruz (2008),
  • University of Montreal, Canada (2008),
  • Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada (2008),
  • Kyiv School of Economics, Ukraine (2008),
  • FRB Cleveland (2008).

Conference Presentations


2017

2016

  • "New Data and New Questions: Implications for Macroeconomics" at Arizona State University, Arizona (Nov),
  • A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (Oct)
  • EEA-ESEM, 31st Annual Congress of the European Economic Association and 69th European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Geneva, Switzerland (Aug)
  • NBER SI Macro Perspectives group, Boston (July)
  • "Transformation of Central Banking" the annual research conference of the National Bank of Ukraine organized in cooperation with Narodowy Bank Polski, Kyiv, Ukraine (May)

2015

  • Distributional implications of the crisis and policy responses, 18th DNB Annual Research Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands (Nov), 
  • Midwest Macro Meetings, University of Rochester (Nov)
  • Econometric Society World Congress, Montreal, Canada (Aug)
  • Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Manheim, Germany (Aug)
  • Society of Economic Dynamics Meeting, Warsaw, Poland (Jun),
  • Federal Reserve System Applied Economics Meeting, Dallas (May),
  • CADRE Meeting (May, Kansas City), 
  • Labor Market Workshop co-sponsored by the University of Kentucky and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Feb)

2014

  • The North American Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society, Philadelphia (Jan)
  • Federal Reserve System Applied Economics Meeting, Minneapolis (May)
  • Society of Economic Dynamics Meeting, Toronto (Jun)
  • NBER Summer Institute, Boston (Jul)
  • Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Toulouse, France (Aug)
  • A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (Oct)

2013

  • A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (Oct)
  • Society of Economic Dynamics Meeting, Seoul (Jun)
  • The North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, LA (Jun)
  • Annual Meeting of the Society of Labor Economists, Boston (May)
  • Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, San Diego (Jan)

2012

  • A. Stockman Conference, University of Rochester (Oct)

2011

  • Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Denver CO (Jan)

2010

  • Society of Economic Dynamics Meeting, Montreal (Jul)
  • MEA Annual Meeting, CSWEP Session (Mar)

2009

  • Econometric Society European Meeting, Barcelona (August)
  • Annual Conference of the Canadian Economic Association, Toronto (May)
  • System Macroeconomics Committee Meeting, FRB San Francisco (May)
  • New York/Philadelphia Workshop on Quantitative Macroeconomics, FRB Philadelphia (April)
  • Society of Labor Economists Annual Meetings (May)
  • EEA Annual Meeting, CSWEP Session (February)
  • System Committee on Financial Structure and Regulation, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (November)
  • Wegmans Conference, University of Rochester (October)
  • FDIC/FHFA Mortgage Default Modeling Symposium, Arlington (September)

Referee Service

  • American Economic Review, 
  • Quarterly Journal of Economics,
  • Review of Economic Studies, 
  • Journal of Monetary Economics,
  • American Economic Journal: Macro,
  • Journal of European Economic Association,
  • Review of Economic Dynamics,
  • Labour Economics,
  • European Economic Review,
  • Economic Letters,
  • Journal of Legal Studies,
  • Journal of Labor Research,
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
  • Journal of Comparative Economics,
  • Journal of Macroeconomics,
  • Journal of Banking and Finance,
  • Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 
  • Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
  • The Manchester School,
  • Review of Economics and Statistics,
  • Canadian Journal of Economics,
  • International Economic Review
  • European Economic Review
  • B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics

Other Professional Activities

Conference organization

  • 11th Annual West Coast Search & Matching Spring Workshop, May 2016 (co-organized with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau)          
  • Alan Stockman University of Rochester Alumni Conference, Rochester, October 2014 (co-organized with Juan M Sanchez)       
  • Federal Reserve System Applied Microeconomics Conference, Richmond, May 16-17 2012 ((co-organizer)
  • Session “Unemployment Across Regions and Sectors” ASSA Meetings, Philadelphia, January 2014.
  • Session “New Evidence from Online Job Search” ASSA Meetings, San Diego, January 2013 (organizer).
  • Session “Labor Market, Labor Decisions, and Production Cycles” ASSA Meetings, Denver, January 2011 (co-organizer).

Conference participation (w/o presentation): 

  • National Association for Business Economics Tech Economist MeetUp, 2017
  • Third Workshop on Marketplace Innovation, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 2017
  • Conference on Big Data in Economics on October 21-22, 2016 at the University of Southern California
  • FRB St Louis Advances in Research Conference, St Louis, April 7-8 2016.
  • NBER SI Macro Perspectives Group (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)