I am a political scientist studying political violence and conflict, with a regional focus on the greater Middle East.
I am currently a Visiting Scholar at the School of International Service at American University, where I am conducting research on ceasefires and the ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and Iran.
I am also an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). In this role, I produce quarterly reports on Libya for the Italian Parliament and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
My first book, War in Syria and the Middle East: A Political and Economic History, was published by the University of Texas Press in 2025. I am also the editor of Violence, Coercion, and the Politics of State Capture: Elites and Armed Actors in Vulnerable and Fragile States (Routledge, 2026). A forthcoming book entitled Libya Divided: Power, Corruption, and Foreign Interests is under contract with Lynne Rienner.
My peer-reviewed articles have appeared in Survival, Small Wars & Insurgencies, Middle East Policy, Asian Affairs, and World Policy Journal, and I have forthcoming articles in International Negotiation and Terrorism and Political Violence.
I also regularly publish policy analysis and commentary in outlets including War on the Rocks, the Modern War Institute at West Point, and The Conversation.
My research is grounded in extensive fieldwork, including in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Kurdistan, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Egypt, and Libya.
During my fieldwork, I lived for extended periods in Beirut and Kabul. In Cairo, I was the Politics Editor of Daily News Egypt, at the time one of the last independent newspapers in Egypt.
Latest publications at a glance (selection):
Books
Violence, Coercion, and the Politics of State Capture: Elites and Armed Actors in Vulnerable and Fragile States. Edited volume.
Routledge, 2026.
War in Syria and the Middle East: A Political and Economic History
University of Texas Press, 2025.
Articles
Russia and Iran: The Axis of Transactions Unraveled
Middle East Policy, Vol. 33, No. 3, 2026.
State Capture by Militias, Paramilitaries, and Organized Crime
Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 36, No. 4, 2025.
Russia's State Capture Strategy in Africa, from Wagner to the Africa Corps
Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 36, No. 4, 2025.
Book reviews
The Abraham Accords: The Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalization
The Middle East Journal, Vol. 78, No. 2-3, 2025.
Analysis and Commentary
Israel and Lebanon Have a Long History of Failed Ceasefires – Will This Time Be Any Different?
The Conversation, Juy 2026. Co-authored with Anthony Wanis-St. John.
A Fragile Ceasefire with Iran and the Price of Ending the War
War on the Rocks, April 2026. Co-authored with Anthony Wanis-St. John.
From Syria to Africa, Russia's Strategy Is Faltering--But Its Repercussions Will Endure
Modern War Institute at West Point, February 2025.
E-mail: fmanfredifirmian@american.edu