I am a Visiting Scholar at the School of International Service (SIS) at American University and a Lecturer in Political Science at Loyola University Maryland. I am also an Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).
I have a Ph.D. from the Sorbonne and a Master's from Harvard, and my research focuses on armed conflict, war economies, and comparative foreign policy.
My publications include an edited volume on political violence and state capture (Routledge, 2026) and a monograph on the war in Syria and its connections to other conflicts in the Middle East (University of Texas Press, 2025). I also published articles in Survival, Small Wars & Insurgencies, Middle East Policy, Asian Affairs, and World Policy Journal, as well as analyses and opinion pieces for War on the Rocks, the Modern War Institute at West Point, and The Conversation.
In my role at ISPI, I produce quarterly reports on Libya to inform the Italian Parliament and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
My research is grounded in extensive fieldwork, including in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Kurdistan, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia.
In Cairo, I was the Politics Editor of Daily News Egypt, at the time one of the last independent newspapers in Egypt. During the course of my fieldwork, I also lived for extended periods in Beirut and Kabul.
Latest publications at a glance (selection):
Books
Violence, Coercion, and the Politics of State Capture: Elites and Armed Actors in Vulnerable and Fragile States. Edited volume.
Routledge, 2026.
War in Syria and the Middle East: A Political and Economic History
University of Texas Press, 2025.
Articles
State Capture by Militias, Paramilitaries, and Organized Crime
Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 36, No. 4, 2025.
Russia's State Capture Strategy in Africa, from Wagner to the Africa Corps
Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 36, No. 4, 2025.
Book reviews
The Abraham Accords: The Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalization
The Middle East Journal, Vol. 78, No. 2-3, 2025.
Analysis and Commentary
A Fragile Ceasefire with Iran and the Price of Ending the War
War on the Rocks, April 2026. Co-authored with Anthony Wanis-St. John.
From Syria to Africa, Russia's Strategy Is Faltering--But Its Repercussions Will Endure
Modern War Institute at West Point, February 2025.
E-mail: fmanfredifirmian@american.edu