Working Paper
Publications
The Federal Reserve’s Output Gap: The Unreliability of Real-Time Reliability Tests, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023, 38(7): 1101-1111.
Global Financial Cycles since 1880, with Galina Potjagailo, Journal of International Money & Finance, 2023, 131: 102801.
Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter, with Josefine Quast, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40(1): 152-168. Code for the modified and the original Hamilton filter with a demo-file for the computation of an output gap for the US.
Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence, with Magnus Reif and Mewael Tesfaselassie, Economica, 2021, 88(352): 1016-1053.
Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model, with Kai Carstensen, Markus Heinrich and Magnus Reif, International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36(3): 829-850. Current Recession Probabilities for Germany Based on the Paper.
Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?, with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, International Journal of Central Banking, 2019, 15(4): 81-126.
The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. a High Inflation Environment, with Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, Review of Economic Dynamics, 2018, 28: 34-50.
How the Baby Boomers’ Retirement Wave Distorts Model-Based Output Gap Estimates, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2018, 33(5): 680-689. Datafile: Demographically Adjusted US Hours Timeseries
Forecasting with Large Datasets: Aggregating Before, During or After the Estimation, with Inske Pirschel, Empirical Economics, 2018, 55(2): 573–596.
Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models, Appendix, Journal of Applied Econometrics, January/February 2015, 30(1): 74-96.
The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach, with Peter Tillmann, codes, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, April 2015, 19(2): 161-182.
Sticky Information Models in Dynare, Software, with Fabio Verona, Computational Economics, March 2014, 43(3): 357-370.
Do large recessions reduce output permanently? codes, with Mehdi Hosseinkouchack, Economics Letters, December 2013, 121(3): 516-519.
Forecasting and Policy Making, with Volker Wieland, Chapter 5, in G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, Eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier, August 2013, 239-325.
Fiscal consolidation strategies, with John Cogan, John Taylor and Volker Wieland, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, February 2013, 37(2): 404-421.
A New Comparative Approach to Macroeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis, codes, with Volker Wieland, Tobias Cwik, Gernot J. Müller and Sebastian Schmidt, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, August 2012, 83(3): 523-541.
Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions, codes, Journal of Macroeconomics, June 2012, 34(2): 342-361.
The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy, with Volker Wieland, Economic Theory, June 2011, 47(2-3): 247-292. Link to voxeu.org article.
Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission? with Tobias Cwik and Gernot J. Müller, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, April 2011, 35(4): 545-564.
Policy Oriented Publications
Growth Prospects, the Natural Interest Rate, and Monetary Policy, with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen and Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 13(2019-35): 1–34, June 2019.
Rezessionsrisiko der deutschen Wirtschaft deutlich erhöht, with Kai Carstensen and Magnus Reif, ifo-Schnelldienst 72(5): 28-31, March 2019.
Konjunkturschlaglicht: Schwächephase oder beginnender Abschwung? with Nils Jannsen, Wirtschaftsdienst 98(7): 531-532, July 2018.
Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: An Assessment Based on a Literature Survey, with Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Hanisch, and Nils Jannsen, Credit and Capital Markets, 2017, 50(4): 455-488.
Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? A Literature Review with an Application to the Euro Area, with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen, and Stefan Reitz, Review of Economics, December 2016, 67(3): 231-254.
Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Transmission Channels and Risks, with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Kooths, Intereconomics, 50(4): 206-212, August 2015.
Policy papers
Growth Prospects, the Natural Interest Rate, and Monetary Policy, with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen and Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, November 2018.
Transmission channels of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area: Where do we stand? with Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Hanisch, and Nils Jannsen, Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, November 2016.
Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? with Salomon Fiedler, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Reitz, Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, November 2015.
The Effects of Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Initially Useful, but Subsequently Largely Ineffective, with Nils Jannsen and Galina Potjagailo, Global Economic Symposium Blog, October 2015.
Quantitative Easing carried out by the US Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan: What are the key policy messages relevant for the euro area that can be drawn from these experiences? with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Kooths, Monetary Expert Panel Briefing for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, March 2015.
Is there a Threat of Self-Reinforcing Deflation in the Euro Area? A View through the Lens of the Phillips Curve, with Volker Wieland, IfW Kiel Policy Brief 79, September 2014.
Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update for the Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013, with John Cogan, John Taylor and Volker Wieland, IMFS Working Paper No. 68, March 18, 2013
Macroeconomic Model Comparisons and Forecast Competitions, with Volker Wieland, VoxEU.org, February 13, 2012
Writings in German
Energiekrise: Inflation, Rezession, Wohlstandsverlust, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2022 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), September 2022.
Klimaschutz ohne Produktionseinbußen: Die Rolle energiesparenden technischen Fortschritts, Hintergrundpapier zum Schwerpunktthema der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2022, Juni 2022.
ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2022: Inflation, Lieferengpässe und Krieg bremsen wirtschaftliche Erholung in Deutschland, (with many coauthors from ifo), ifo Schnelldienst, 75, Sonderausgabe Juni 2022.
Von der Pandemie zur Energiekrise - Wirtschaft und Politik im Dauerstress, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2022 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), April 2022.
Pandemie verzögert Aufschwung – Demographie bremst Wachstum, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2021 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), April 2021.
Industrie in der Rezession – Wachstumskräfte schwinden, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2019 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), Oktober 2019.
Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession? with Martin Ademmer, Nils Jannsen and Stefan Kooths, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2019.10, October 2019.
Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abwärtssog, with Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Saskia Mösle and Galina Potjagailo, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2019|Q3, September 2019.
Schwacher Jahresauftakt 2018: Delle oder Beginn eines Abschwungs? with Philipp Hauber and Nils Jannsen, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2018.10, July 2018.
Deutsche Wirtschaft: Luftloch im konjunkturellen Höhenflug, with Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, and Galina Potjagailo, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2018|Q2, June 2018.
Deutsche Wirtschaft im Boom - Luft wird dünner, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2018 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), April 2018.
Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland, with Kai Carstensen, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2017.14, September 2017.
Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur, with Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, and Galina Potjagailo, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2017|Q3, September 2017.
Deutsche Wirtschaft gut ausgelastet - Wirtschaftspolitik neu ausrichten, Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2016 (with many coauthors from IfW, ifo, IWH, DIW and RWI), September 2016.
Zu Produktionspotenzial und Produktionslücke in den Vereinigten Staaten, with Nils Jannsen, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2016.2, March 2016.
Getrübte Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur, with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths and Martin Plödt, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2016|Q1, March 2016.
Makroökonometrische Simulationen zur US-Zinspolitik, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2015.13, September 2015.
Schwäche in den Schwellenländern bremst Weltkonjunktur, with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths and Galina Potjagailo, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q3, September 2015.
Deutschland: Expansion trotzt weltwirtschaftlicher Unruhe, with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Martin Plödt and Galina Potjagailo, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q3, September 2015.
Zwischen GREMAIN und GREXIT: Euroraum in der Bewährungskrise, with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Salomon Fiedler, Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Dominik Groll, Philipp Hauber, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Rolf J. Langhammer, Martin Plödt, Galina Potjagailo and Ulrich Stolzenburg, Kiel Policy Brief 90, July 2015.
„Quantitative Lockerung“: Transmission, Auswirkung und Risiken, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2015.8, June 2015.
Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur, with Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Inske Pirschel and Martin Plödt, Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2015|Q1, March 2015.
Wie wahrscheinlich ist eine „Deflationsspirale“ im Euroraum? Eine Analyse anhand einer Phillips-Kurve, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Box 2014.8, September 2014.
Euroraum: Dämpfer für die Konjunktur, Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2014, with Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Dominik Groll, Joachim Scheide and Tim Schwarzmüller, September 2014.
Zwang und Zufall, with Stefan Kooths, Wirtschaftswoche, appeared also as IfW Kiel Focus 169 with the title: Marktwirtschaftliche Politik statt politisierte Märkte - Wider den grassierenden Neointerventionismus, June 2014.
Möglichkeiten und Grenzen von makroökonomischen Modellen zur (exante) Evaluierung wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen, Working Paper 05/2013, German Council of Economic Experts, November 2013.
Die Fed steckt in der Sackgasse, with Nils Jannsen, Zeit online, April 2013.
Gralshüter der Neoklassik?, with Volker Wieland, Das Wirtschaftsstudium, 2011, 40(12): 1576-1579. This is an article about the work of the 2011 Nobel laureates in economics Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims.