Working Papers & Works-in-Progress
Working Papers & Works-in-Progress
Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI (with L. Mann) -- New!
[CESifo WP] [Minneapolis Fed OIGI WP]
Presentations: Columbia U, Minneapolis Fed, BSE Summer Forum, SED, SITE, Boston U, HKS, Boston Macro-AI Workshop, NBER EFG Fall Meeting, Harvard U, NBER Labor Studies Fall Meeting, Philadelphia Junior Macro Workshop, Fed SF Micro-Macro Conference, IMF, NBER Digital Economics and AI Spring Meeting 2026, HEC Paris, OECD, Collège de France, Fed St. Louis Macro-Labor Conference
Superstar Teams -- Revise and Resubmit, Econometrica
[Latest version (v2.1), incl. Online Appendix | June 2025] [Supplemental Appendix] [Janeway Institute WP 2235 | June 2025] [CESifo WP 12303 | June 2025]
Econ JM Best Paper Award, European Economic Association/Unicredit Foundation
Companion note "Human Capital at Work: Five Facts about the Role of Skills for Firm Productivity, Growth, and Wage Inequality" (with C. Criscuolo & P. Gal) [OECD WP]
Firms as Foragers (with V. Carvalho)
Supported by a ~£38,000 grant from the Cambridge Keynes Fund
The Talent Bottleneck to Firm Growth and the Productivity Effects of AI (with T. Ifergane)
Supported by a ~$320,000 grant (2025-2029) from the Binational Science Foundation
Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)Distribution, with C. Cantore
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 119, pp. 58-74, 2021 [Published version - open access], [Online appendix], [Replication files], [Slides]
A capitalist-worker two-agent New Keynesian model to study the interaction of fiscal policy and household heterogeneity in a tractable environment. The model is consistent with micro data on empirical intertemporal marginal propensities to consume and it avoids implausible profit income effects on labor supply. Relative to the traditional two-agent model, these features imply, respectively, a lower sensitivity of consumption to the composition of public financing; and smaller fiscal multipliers alongside pronounced redistributive effects.
Volatile Hiring: Uncertainty in Search and Matching Models, with W. Den Haan and P. Rendahl
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 123, pp. 1-18, 2021 [Published version - open access], [Online appendix ], [Replication files], [Short slides | April 2021], [VoxEU column | Sep 2021]
We study the hypothesis that heightened uncertainty leads to higher unemployment because firms prefer to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to posting vacancies. Contrary to common belief, option-value considerations play no role in the standard search-and matching model with free entry. Constructively, we show that when the mass of entrepreneurs is finite and there is heterogeneity in firm-specific productivity, a rise in perceived uncertainty robustly increases the option value of waiting and reduces job creation.
The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation, with H. Lee and P. Rendahl
Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 51, pp. 117-137, 2023 [Online Appendix], [Replication files], [Slides for SITE | Sep 2022], [Cambridge INET Special Feature]
This paper argues that a risk-premium mechanism plays an important tole in the transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks to the labor market. In a quantitative model, this channel accounts for a significant fraction of the uncertainty-induced rise in unemployment, and it implies that uncertainty shocks are less deflationary than regular demand shocks, nor can they be fully neutralized by monetary policy.