Research
Publications
"Filtering Persistent and Asymmetric Cycles", 2023, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 473 - 495 . [WP version]
"On the Behavior of Okun's Law across Business Cycles", 2022, Economic Modelling, vol. 112, Article 105858. [WP version]
"Recession-specific Recoveries: L's, U's and Everything in Between", 2021, Economics Letters, vol. 209, Article 110145 [joint with Irina Panovska] [WP version]
"Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples", 2018, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 1 – 11[joint with Yunjong Eo and James Morley], Awarded Best Paper in 2018 at the SNDE Annual Symposium, Dallas Fed, March 2019.
"U.S. Wage Growth and Nonlinearities: The Roles of Inflation and Unemployment", 2018, Economic Modelling, vol. 68, pp. 273 – 292 [joint with Irina Panovska]
"Causality between Public Debt and Real Growth in the OECD: A Country-by-country Analysis", 2017, Economic Papers, vol 36, no. 2, pp. 156 – 170 [joint with Ariuna Taivan]
"State-dependent Exchange Rate Pass-through Behavior", 2016, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 64, pp. 170 – 195 [joint with Irina Panovska]
"The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy", 2016, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 167 – 182 [joint with Neil Wilmot]
"Nonlinearities in the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve", 2016, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 48, pp. 19 – 43 [joint with Irina Panovska]
"Outliers and Persistence in Threshold Autoregressive Processes", 2016, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol 20, no. 1, pp. 37 – 56 [joint with Yamin Ahmad]
"Do Monetary Policy Shocks Generate TAR or STAR Dynamics in Output?", 2015, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 227 – 247.
"Estimated Thresholds in the Response of Output to Monetary Policy: Are Large Policy Changes Less Effective?", 2014, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 41 – 64.
Working Papers
"Likelihood-ratio-based Confidence Intervals for Multiple Threshold Parameters" (revise and resubmit)
"Regime-dependent Health Care Employment Dynamics in Recessions" (under review, joint with Lacey Loomer)
"Taylor Rules, (A)symmetric Preferences, and Dual Mandates"
"Wage Growth and the Role of the Labor Share in the U.S."
Work in Progress
"Levels and Trajectories in Modelling and Forecasting Unemployment Rates"
"Has U.S. Labor Productivity Undergone High-Frequency Changes?" (joint with Neil Wilmot)
Other Publications
"Rethinking the Role of FDI in Peru: Are Its Links to the Local Economy Relevent?", 2005, Economía y Sociedad 58, pp. 45-54. Lima: Economic and Social Research Consortium [in Spanish].
"A Model of Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy: A Structural Approach for Peru", in: González Izquierdo, Jorge, 2004, Essays on the Peruvian Economy Vol. III. Lima: Research Center of the Universidad del Pacífico [joint with Alberto Gonzales, in Spanish].
"Towards the Coordination of Policies: A Dynamic Approach Based on Differential Games", 2002, Revista Estudios Económicos 8. Lima: Central Reserve Bank of Peru [joint with Alberto Gonzales, in Spanish].