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The Calculator

The Calc_LTEP spreadsheet (Excel) is a different type of calculator.

I'm extraordinarily pleased with it - you can download it and try different supply mixes out by changing the figures in column C 

There's a number of over-simplifications involved here - but basically I've made my best estimates of hourly Ontario Demand, populated anticipated production of nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and must-run natural gas facilities (labelled baseload).
In hours these sources fail to meet demand the amount is considered as provided by natural gas (whatever ability biomass, conservation, CHP, storage and coal have to meet this demand would be subtracted from the natural gas total - they are not part of the calcualtion)
- failures to meet NERC capacity reserve requirements will be indicated if they occur
-cost per MWh of the supply mix is calculated, plus a revised figure is shown just below it which provides a better estimate of cost to Ontarians.

The costing puts almost all of the cost into paying for capacity.   This requires a fuller explanation, but basically it applies the logic of the Net Revenue Requirement contracts for natural gas facilities and applies them across all technologies.  The reasoning is that it is likely non-utility generators (NUGs) are re-imbursed on those weekends they are dispatched off, and the unfortunately perfectly reasonable assumption that the government eliminated the displeasure with the upcoming ability to dispatch off renewables by agreeing to pay them fully during periods the grid can't accept their power.  This is already true of Bruce Power while dispatched down.

The vast majority of contracts pay whether the power is accepted or curtailed - this capacity-focussed calculator recognizes that.

Some sample supply mixes are included in a tab of the workbook.

To demonstrate how this calculator differs from others, copy the LTEP1 supply mix into column C

There's an estimated cost to that of $104.75/MWh

Now delete the 8,000MW of wind.

The estimated cost drops to $87.66/MWh.


Comments would be appreciated; the separate pages for generation types are being populated, and may answer some concerns readers may have.

Download the spreadsheet (V4): Native xlsx file it runs best in Excel, but it opens in Open Office for me, although it takes a while to do so, and runs slower.


Previous versions
Verson 3: A couple of fixes, and a couple of more sample mixes (particularly related to 2025 options)

Version 2: Posted an updated version with an effort at costing conservation and storage, and an effort to allow coal (mainly for costing historical mixes - but also allows demonstration of the cost of replacing infrequently utilized generation).

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