Nuclear

The status of Ontario's nuclear reactors may be downplayed in the supporting documents being provided for the long term energy plan. The Ontario Power Authority recklessly indicates "potential" refurbishments are projects for after 2019 in its Technical Presentation, while the Ministry of Energy is presenting a crude graphical calculator as if, by 2025,135TWh of a needed 155TWh has already been secured.

A review of Ontario's reactors:

• Bruce A units 1 and 2 are freshly refurbished. If they find their operational groove should be good towards 2040 now - this is the 1500MWh of refurbished capacity referenced in my current mix (and the basis for estimating costs of refurbished units)

• Bruce A unit 3 underwent a life-extension project - completed midway in 2012, the project promised to be "extending the unit's life for up to 10 years"

• Bruce A unit 4 underwent the life extension project - completed early in 2013

• Bruce B - all units - have an agreement "to the end of the decade"

• Pickering - probably all units - is subject to a regulatory decision that will determine if the operator's plans to operate the facility until the end of the decade will be strengthened by a renewed 5-year operating license, or threatened by the rejection of the application

• Darlington - the refurbishment of Ontario's newest, and its best performing, reactors seems likely as much of the planning and even some contract awards for refurbishmet work is underway.

By 2025 it is likely that 1500MW of capacity from two refurbished reactors will still be in operation.

It is, I think, more likely than not that 3600MW of capacity from refurbished Darlington reactors will be operable.

It is less likely 6 other units at Bruce will be operational.

It is almost certain 6 units at Pickering will have been shuttered.

A new build at Darlington is a possibility.

It is unlikely Ontario could go years without refurbishement activity and then refurbish 10 reactors between 2019 and 2025.

Unfortunately a lack of professonalism in planning seems to now be incapable of recognizing the requirements of managing a supply chain to maintain a healthy availability of competent professionals.

In 2012 the Pickering, Darlington, and non-refurbished Bruce units produced 55% of all the generation on the IESO grid (which was far more than Ontario demanded): Pickering units accounted for ~14% of that, and Bruce units 3-8 ~22.5%.