Dr. Lutz Kilian has been a Senior Economic Policy Adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas since the summer of 2019. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1996 and his M.A. in Development Banking from The American University in 1988. He joined the faculty at Michigan in 1996, where he was tenured in 2002 and promoted to Professor of Economics in 2008. Prior to his Ph.D., he worked for the research department of the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC. During 2001-03 he served as the research adviser to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt a.M., Germany. Dr. Kilian has been a research visitor at the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. He has also been a consultant for the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Trade Organization, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the European Parliament, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, among others. He is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Analysis, the Center for Financial Studies, the CESifo, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network and an officer of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA). He has served as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Dr. Kilian has published over 100 articles. His work has appeared in leading general interest and field journals in economics and statistics. His research interests include time series econometrics, empirical macroeconomics, and energy economics. Much of his recent research is concerned with the sources of fluctuations in the price of oil, with the transmission of oil price shocks to the U.S. economy, with the role of speculation in global oil markets, with measuring oil price expectations in financial markets, and with oil price forecasting. He has also worked on quantifying the impact of the U.S. shale oil revolution and the effect of releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, on estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand, on measuring the global business cycle in commodity markets, on the link between oil and food prices, and on the joint determination of oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates, for example. Dr. Kilian's work in empirical macroeconomics and in international finance includes topics such as the stagflation of the 1970s, the specification of monetary policy rules, the role of household inflation expectations, the quantification of deflation risks, the role of sticky prices in business cycle models, the transmission of regional shocks to housing markets, and tests of exchange rate models.
Dr. Kilian has also worked extensively on topics in time series econometrics with a special focus on bootstrap methods of inference for autoregressions, on impulse response analysis, on the estimation of structural parameters in DSGE models, on the specification and identification of structural VAR models, on the construction of counterfactuals, on forecasting and forecast scenarios, on methods of inference that are robust to possible unit roots and cointegration, on testing for asymmetries in the transmission of shocks, and on testing predictability. He is the author of a textbook with Helmut Lütkepohl on Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 2017.