Work in Progress

WORKING PAPERS

"On the Determinants of Young Adult Outcomes: An Examination of Random Shocks to Children in Military Families." With Bruce Sacerdote, William Skimmyhorn and Michael Stevens. Revise and Resbumit requested at Quarterly Journal of Economics.

• Using the quasi-random assignment of 760,000 children in U.S. military families, we show that neighborhood attributes experienced during childhood have powerful impacts on SAT scores, college-going and earnings. For earnings and college going outcomes, location during high school is twice as important as location during elementary school, and for SAT scores, location during middle school has the strongest impact. There is little evidence of positive interactions in neighborhood quality across ages groups. Importantly, the same locations benet children with equal potency across race or sex. Twenty years of exposure in a 1 standard deviation \better" county raises SAT composite scores by 10 points (1.8 percentiles), raises college attendance by 1.7 percentage points, earnings by 2.2 percentile points, and lowers EITC receipt by 10%. Impacts are three times more potent when we measure neighborhood quality at the zip code level: twenty years of exposure to a one (county level) standard deviation better zip code raises college going by 6.7 percentage points, SAT composite by 38 points and income percentile at age 25 by 6.1 points. By equalizing average neighborhood quality for Black and White families, we estimate that the Army's quasi-random assignment reduces Black-white earnings gaps among the children of Army personnel by 23%.

"You Can't Handle the Truth: The Effects of the Post 9-11 GI Bill on Higher Education and Earnings." With Andrew Barr, Bruce Sacerdote, William Skimmyhorn and Michael Stevens.

• The Post 9/11 GI Bill (PGIB) is among the largest and most generous college subsidies enacted thus far in the U.S. We examine the impact of the PGIB on veterans’ college-going, degree completion, federal education tax benefit utilization, and long run earnings. Among veterans potentially induced to enroll, the introduction of the PGIB raised college enrollment by 0.17 years and B.A. completion by 1.2 percentage points (on a base of 9 percent). But, the PGIB reduced average annual earnings nine years after separation from the Army by $900 (on a base of $32,000). Years enrolled effects are larger and earnings effects more negative for veterans with lower AFQT scores and those who were less occupationally skilled. Under a variety of conservative assumptions, veterans are unlikely to recoup these reduced earnings during their working careers.  All veterans who were already enrolled in college at the time of bill passage increase their months of schooling, but only for those in public institutions did this translate into increases in bachelor’s degree attainment and longer-run earnings. For specific groups of students, large subsidies can modestly help degree completion but harm long run earnings due to lost labor market experience. 

"Estimating the Elasticity of Broad Income in the Presence of Income Growth and Volatility" With Caroline Weber and Andrew Whitten  

• This paper precisely estimates the elasticity of broad income (EBI) with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate for high-income taxpayers. We study the introduction of a new top income tax bracket in 2013 using a large panel of high-income taxpayers drawn from administrative tax records. Our estimation strategy — inverse probability weighting — takes into account the tremendous income volatility experienced by high-income taxpayers. We obtain an intent-to-treat (ITT) EBI of 0.013. After rescaling to account for taxpayers crossing the top income tax bracket threshold, we obtain a treatment-effect-on-the-treated elasticity that is bounded below by the ITT estimate and above by 0.034.