Campaigns & Elections
Endres, Kyle and Costas Panagopoulos. 2019. "Cross-Pressure and Voting Behavior: Results from Randomized Experiments." Journal of Politics. 81(3): 1090-1095 pdf
Cross-pressured partisans are commonly viewed as persuadable, and campaigns routinely target these voters in elections. Yet evidence of the causal impact of policy cross- pressures on voting behavior is limited. We deployed randomized experiments to examine whether (and how) nonpartisan information that highlighted policy cross-pressures affected voting in the 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election. Our results suggest partisans conflicted with their party’s gubernatorial nominee on the issue of Kynect, Kentucky’s health care exchange, who were exposed to information about the candidates’ positions were more likely to report defection intentions in a pre-election survey, but these did not necessarily materialize on Election Day. Information exposure seems to have produced few discernible effects on voting overall, based on self-reports in post-election surveys we conducted, but an examination of validated voting records suggests cross-pressured partisans were generally more likely to abstain when provided with the policy positions of both gubernatorial candidates.
Endres, Kyle. 2020. "Targeted Issue Messages and Voting Behavior." American Politics Research. 48(2): 317-328. pdf
In today’s data-driven campaigns, presidential targeting strategies rely on detailed perceptions about the political leanings and policy positions of Americans to decide which registered voters to contact and which messages to emphasize in their outreach. However, identifying supporters and opponents of a candidate’s policy positions is far from foolproof. This reality results in some citizens encountering political messages on congruent issues, where their issue stance aligns with the messaging candidate, and others encountering incongruent issue messages, where the candidate and message recipient do not share the same position. Examining official contact records from the 2012 presidential campaign of Republican Mitt Romney, I find evidence that Romney’s campaign had some success when targeting Democrats with congruent issue messages. Messaging Democrats with an issue where they and Romney share common ground is associated with decreased support for Obama, increased abstention, and increased support for Romney. Contacting Democrats with an incongruent message and contacting Republicans with either an incongruent or congruent issue message had minimal effects on the voting behavior of the recipient.
Endres, Kyle and Kristin J. Kelly. 2018. "Does Microtargeting Matter? Campaign Contact Strategies and Young Voters." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 28(1): 1-18. pdf
In recent elections, campaigns have based their contact decisions on individual microtargeted propensity scores generated using “Big Data” rather than the more traditional geographic-based contacting. Shifts in campaign strategy have implications for who is contacted and ultimately who participates in elections. As campaigns focus more of their outreach towards individuals who the data indicate are more likely to turn out and more likely to vote for their candidate, some groups may be systematically excluded from contact. We investigate this using voter files and survey data from the 2012 US elections to compare who the Republicans identified for campaign contact using microtargeted propensity scores and who would have been identified for contact if they used a strictly geographic-based approach. Our findings suggest that young people are much less likely to be designated for contact when campaigns rely on microtargeted data than older individuals, the latter of whom are more likely to be contacted under both geographic and microtargeting strategies.
Endres, Kyle. 2016. "The Accuracy of Microtargeted Policy Positions." PS: Political Science and Politics. 49(4): 771-774. pdf
Identifying voters who share policy positions with the candidates has become an important component of modern political campaigns as they rely on microtargeted estimates to guide targeting decisions. Using survey data and microtargeted estimates from the 2012 election, I conduct one of the first independent examinations of the accuracy of microtargeting. The estimates are the most accurate in Florida, a state that requests information on the race of voters when they register and has party registration. The estimates are less accurate in the other battleground states that do not collect as much information. The accuracy rates range from 36% to 82% depending on the issue and state.
Panagopoulos, Costas and Kyle Endres. 2015. "The Enduring Relevance of National Presidential Nominating Conventions." The Forum. 13(4): 559-576. pdf
Some contend the relevance of presidential nominating conventions has faded in recent decades as fewer voters watch and reach voting decisions during the conventions. We evaluate these trends empirically and consider the historical evolution of conventions to argue that, while they do not garner the attention they once did, conventions can still have a consequential effect on the outcomes of presidential elections, especially in competitive cycles.
Panagopoulos, Costas, Kyle Endres, and Aaron Weinschenk. 2018. "Preelection Poll Accuracy and Bias in the 2016 U.S. General Elections." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties. 28(2): 157-172. pdf
This report examines accuracy and bias in national- and state-level preelection polls conducted during the 2016 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national polls in 2016 were somewhat more accurate than in 2012, but statewide polls were less accurate. Patterns across the board suggest polls underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevertheless, these biases were generally statistically insignificant, suggesting significant bias in preelection polls was scarce in 2016.
Endres, Kyle and Costas Panagopoulos. 2023. “Who is Mobilized to Vote by Information about Voter ID Laws?” Politics, Groups, and Identities. pdf
Advocacy groups often work to educate the public about voting requirements following changes to election laws. These outreach efforts have the potential to mobilize partisan groups who consider the laws a threat to their party’s electoral prospects. In the 2017 Virginia election, we partnered with an advocacy organization to conduct a field experiment evaluating the effects of the organization’s outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards providing details about voter identification requirements in place at the time in Virginia. Overall, the postcards had minimal effects on turnout compared to the no-contact control group. However, each version of the postcards significantly increased turnout among subgroups based on their underlying partisanship and/or vote-propensity. Democrats were significantly mobilized by postcards highlighting the potentially disproportionate impact of ID laws on demographic groups that traditionally support the Democratic Party, with approximately a two percentage point increase in turnout overall, and even higher increases among high vote-propensity Democrats. A simple, informational postcard, on the other hand, elevated turnout among low vote-propensity recipients by two percentage points. The postcard treatments did not significantly increase turnout among Republicans or mid vote-propensity registrants of either party.
Endres, Kyle and Costas Panagopoulos. 2021 “Photo ID Requirements and Perceived Reductions in Electoral Fraud.” Research & Politics. 8(3): 1-7. pdf
Photo identification (ID) laws are often passed on the premise that they will prevent voter fraud and/or reduce perceptions of electoral fraud. The impact of ID laws on perceptions of electoral fraud remains unsettled and is complicated by widespread confusion about current voting requirements. In the 2017 Virginia election, we fielded an experiment, with an advocacy organization, evaluating the effects of the organization’s outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards. After the election, we surveyed subjects about electoral integrity and their knowledge about election laws. We find that providing registrants with information on the state’s photo ID requirements is associated with a reduction in perceptions of fraud and increased knowledge about voting requirements.