Research
Published Articles
Contagion of Fear: Panics, Money, and the Great Depression (with Gary Richardson and Fabrizio Marodin) Explorations in Economic History (July 2024).
The Effects of Countercyclical Interest Rates: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard (with Gonçalo Pina). Journal of International Economics (November 2023). NBER Working Paper 29970; CEPR Discussion Paper 17236; CESifo Working Paper 9716
Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century (with Christoph Trebesch). Journal of Economic Literature (June 2023). Available as NBER Working Paper 28598; CEPR Discussion Paper 15935; CESifo Working Paper 8959.
The Smoot Hawley Trade War (with Kevin O’Rourke and Kirsten Wandschneider). Economic Journal (October 2022). Available as CEPR Discussion Paper DP15952; CESifo Working Paper 8966; and NBER Working Paper 28616.
Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression (with Sanjiv Das and Angela Vossmeyer). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (August 2022). Available as CEPR Discussion Paper DP 13416; CESifo Working Paper 7425; and NBER Working Paper 25405.
Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward (with Christoph Trebesch). Forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Literature. Available as NBER Working Paper 28598; CEPR Discussion Paper 15935; CESifo Working Paper 8959.
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I (with Jose Lopez). Published in the Economic Journal (January 2021). Also available as NBER Working Paper 24624; CEPR Discussion Paper 12951; CESifo Working Paper 7066; and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06.
Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard (with Goncalo Pina) Published in the Journal of International Money and Finance (October 2020). Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 11640; and CESifo Working Paper 6212.
Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression (with Gary Richardson) Published as the lead article in the Journal of Political Economy (April 2019). Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 11164 and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Working Paper 16-03.
Pulling up the Tarnished Anchor: The End of Silver as a Global Unit of Account (with Rick Fernholz & Marc Weidenmier) Published in the Journal of International Money and Finance (June 2017). Also available as CEPR Discussion Paper 11952 and CESifo Working Paper 6436.
Predicting Winners in Civil Wars (with Stephen Haber, Kim Oosterlinck, Marc Weidenmier) Published in the Journal of Banking and Finance (November 2015) and CEPR Discussion Paper 10109 (August 2014).
The Evolution of Bank Supervisory Institutions: Evidence from American States (with Matt Jaremski) Published in the Journal of Economic History (September 2015) and NBER Working Paper 20603.
Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk (with Marc Weidenmier). Published in the Journal of Economic History (June 2015) and CEPR Discussion Paper 10388. An earlier version (October 2009) is available as NBER Working Paper 15401.
Capital Controls and Recovery from the Financial Crisis Capital Controls of the 1930s (with Kirsten Wandschneider) Published in the Journal of International Economics (February 2015), CEPR Discussion Paper 10019, NBER Working Paper 20220, and CAGE WP132.
Globalization, Trade and Wages: What does History tell us about China? (with Se Yan) Published in the International Economic Review (February 2014) and NBER Working Paper 15679. Read about this article and related research on trade and wages at the web portal VoxEU.com
Skin in the Game? Risk, Leverage, and Consequences of New Deal Financial Legislation? (with Gary Richardson) Published in Explorations in Economic History (July 2013) and NBER Working Paper 18895.
Shadowy Banks and Financial Contagion during the Great Depression: A Retrospective on Friedman and Schwartz (with Gary Richardson) Published in the American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings (May 2013).
Does the Structure of Banking Matter for Economic Growth? Evidence from U.S. State Banking Markets (with David Wheelock) Published in Explorations in Economic History (April 2013), NBER Working Paper 15710, and Federal Reserve of St. Louis Bank Working Paper 2010-004A.
Irving Fisher and Price-Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer? (with Richard Burdekin & Marc Weidenmier). Published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (June 2012) and NBER Working Paper 17123.
Arresting Banking Panics: Fed Liquidity Provision and the Forgotten Panic of 1929 (with Mark Carlson and Gary Richardson) Published in the Journal of Political Economy (October 2011) and NBER Working Paper 16460.
Trading Silver for Gold: Nineteenth-century Asian Exports and the Political Economy of Currency Unions (with Hans Joachim Voth). Published in Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia (Oxford University Press-ADB), 2011.
Blood and Treasure: Exiting the Great Depression and Lessons for Today (with Joe Mason) Published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy (November 2010). Read about this article and related research on the web portal VoxEU.com
Why did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan (with Masato Shizume & Marc Weidenmier) Published in the Journal of Economic History (March 2010) and NBER Working Paper 15195.
Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment (with Marc Weidenmier) Published in the Journal of International Money and Finance (February 2010) and NBER Working Paper 11472. Discussed in NBER Reporter, Fall 2005
Branch Banking as a Device for Discipline: Competition and Bank Survivorship during the Great Depression (with Mark Carlson). Published in the Journal of Political Economy (April 2009, Lead Article) and NBER Working Paper 12938.
Institutions, Competition, and Capital Market Integration in Japan (with Mari Ohnuki). Published in the Journal of Economic History (March 2009) and NBER Working Paper 14090.
Trade and Empire (with Marc Weidenmier).Published in Economic Journal (November 2008, Lead Article) and NBER Working Paper 13765. Read about this article and related research on trade at the web portal VoxEU.com
The Baring Crisis and the Great Latin American Meltdown of the 1890s (with Marc Weidenmier). NBER Working Paper 13403. Published in the Journal of Economic History (June 2008).
Capital Market Integration in Japan (with Mari Ohnuki). Published in Monetary and Economic Studies (November 2007).
Are Prudential Supervision and Regulation Pillars of Financial Stability? Evidence from the Great Depression Published in the Journal of Law and Economics (May 2007) and NBER Working Paper 12074.
Branch Banking, Bank Competition, and Financial Stability (with Mark Carlson), Published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (August 2006); NBER Working Paper 11291; and Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series WP 2005-20.
Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary (with Marc Weidenmier) Published in the Journal of Economic History (September 2005) and NBER Working Paper 10729. Discussed in NBER Reporter, Fall 2005.
Bank Supervision, Regulation, and Instability During the Great Depression Published Journal of Economic History (March 2005) and NBER Working Paper 10475
The Great Depression as Credit Boom Gone Wrong (with Barry Eichengreen) Published in Research in Economic History (2004) and as BIS Working Paper No. 137.
The Productivity of U.S. States (with Ian McLean) Published in the Journal of Economic Growth (March 2003) and NBER Working Paper 9445.
U.S. Regional Growth and Convergence, 1880 - 1980 (with Ian McLean) Published in the Journal of Economic History (December 1999). Discussed in the New York Times. An additional figure helps clarify the point of the article.