Low nominal interest rates in the 2010s increased focus on the possibility that the long-run neutral real interest rate (r*) would remain low and constrain monetary policy. The chart below presents several crude proxies for r*. My related research includes:
Monetary policy transmission in the Handbook of Monetary Economics.
Measurement of r* in the Annual Review of Financial Economics and International Journal of Central Banking
Implications for monetary policy in American Economic Review, Brookings Papers for Economic Activity, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, and the Manchester School.
Note: The long-run real interest rate should equal the equilibrium real interest rate. The figure presents 3 measures, each of which has benefits and drawbacks.
1. The 5-year/5-year forward rate from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (green).
2. The 10-year real Treasury yield.
3. The average 10-yr sovereign yield on US, UK, and German debt minus 2 percent (a measure of the inflation target).