CONTACT INFORMATION
Phone: 240.389.4450 Email: “michaeltkiley” at “gmail.com”
EDUCATION AND FIELDS OF SPECIALIZATION
Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics/Econometrics
Ph.D (1996) and M.A. (1993), Economics, University of Maryland at College Park
B.A. (1991), Economics, University of Delaware
CURRENT POSITION
Deputy Director, Division of Financial Stability, & Senior Adviser, Board Members, Federal Reserve Board: Primary responsibilities include providing the Board with analysis of issues related to financial stability and monetary policy. (2017-)
Member, Policy Advisory Committee, Supervision and Regulation, Federal Reserve Board (2019-)
Financial Stability Board (FSB), Standing Committee for the Assessment of Vulnerabilities (Federal Reserve representative or substitute for Federal Reserve member) (2022-)
FSB, Standing Committee for Standards Implementation (Federal Reserve representative) (2022-23)
PREVIOUS POSITIONS
Counselor, Domestic Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury: Primary responsibilities include providing the Secretary and Undersecretary of the Treasury, along with other senior officials, with advice on issues affecting U.S. financial institutions and markets. (2021)
FSB, Surveillance Framework Group (2019-2021) & Analytical Group on Vulnerabilities (2018-2023)
Federal Reserve Board: Member, Senior Officers Committee (2017-21); Co-organizer, Systemic Risk Integration Forum (2017-21); Official Staff, Division of Financial Stability and Division of Research and Statistics (2012-2016); Official Staff (2007-2011), Section Chief (2003-07), and Economist (1996-2003) Division of Research and Statistics.
Bank for International Settlements Consultative Group for Directors of Financial Stability (BIS CGDFS) for the Americas, U.S. Representative. (2015-2019)
FSB and Basel Committee for Banking Supervision, Macroeconomic Assessment Group (2010)
Lecturer, Yale School of Management (2022) and Johns Hopkins University (2016; 2000- 2001) and Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor (1998)
Economist, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2001-2003)
HONORS AND AWARDS
IDEAS/REPEC: Top Global Rankings in Economics (Top 200 in Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Central Banking across 70,000+ registrants)
Graduate Studies: University of Maryland Graduate Fellowship (1991-93 and 1995-96), Departmental Fellowship (1993-1994), Economic Club of Washington Fellowship (1994-1995)
University of Delaware: Award of Special Merit and Distinguished Senior in Economics (1991), Phi Beta Kappa (1991), University National Scholar (1988-1991)
PUBLICATIONS (Articles/Book Chapters)
Michael T. Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin, 2024. Central Banking Post Crises. Oxford Handbook of Banking (and National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 32237. DOI 10.3386/w32237).
Michael T. Kiley, 2024. Anchored or Not: How Much Information Does 21st Century Data Contain on Inflation Dynamics? International Journal of Central Banking, February.
Michael T. Kiley, 2024. Growth at risk from climate change. Economic Inquiry, 1–18. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13206.
Michael T. Kiley, 2022. "Unemployment Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1407-1424, August. Version with online appendix.
Michael T. Kiley, 2021. "What macroeconomic conditions lead financial crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
Michael T. Kiley, 2020. “The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges.” Annual Review of Financial Economics. Vol. 12:- (Volume publication date November 2020).
Michael T. Kiley, 2019. “Discussion of ‘The optimal inflation target and the natural rate of interest, by Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
Ben S. Bernanke & Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2019. "Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 421-426, May.
Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Francisco Covas & John C. Driscoll & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Michael Kiley & Albert Queralto & Jae Sim, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 137-204, September.
Michael T. Kiley, 2018. “Quantitative Easing and the ‘New Normal’ in Monetary Policy.” The Manchester School, 86: 21-49. doi:10.1111/manc.12238
Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring.
Aikman, David & Kiley, Michael & Lee, Seung Jung & Palumbo, Michael G. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2017. "Mapping heat in the U.S. financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, 81(C), pp. 36-64.
Michael T. Kiley & Sim, Jae, 2017. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 54(PB), pp. 232-259.
Michael T. Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, 21, pp. 1-15, July
Michael T. Kiley, 2016. "Monetary policy statements, treasury yields, and private yields: Before and after the zero lower bound," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, 18(C), pp. 285-290.
Michael T. Kiley, 2016. "Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges," FEDS Notes 2016-05-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "An evaluation of the inflationary pressure associated with short- and long-term unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, 137(C), pp. 5-9.
Hess Chung & Edward Herbst & Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Effective Monetary Policy Strategies in New Keynesian Models: A Reexamination," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, 29(1), pp. 289 - 344.
Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Low Inflation in the United States: A Summary of Recent Research," FEDS Notes 2015-11-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
David Aikman & Michael T. Kiley & Seung Jung Lee & Michael G. Palumbo & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2015. "Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary," FEDS Notes 2015-08-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long‐Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, 46(5), pp. 1057-1071, 08.
Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, 10(4), pp. 69-104, December.
Michael T. Kiley & Sim, Jae W., 2014. "Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 43(C), pp. 175-198.
David M. Arseneau & Michael T. Kiley, 2014. "The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy," FEDS Notes 2014-04-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2013. "Output gaps," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 37(C), pp. 1-18.
Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, 26(66), pp. 233-283, 04.
Boivin, Jean & Michael T. Kiley & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pp. 369-422 Elsevier.
Michael T. Kiley, 2010. "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, 92(3), pp. 679-683, August.
Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 25(4), pp. 720-754.
Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments," Conference Series; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 53.
Edge, Rochelle M. & Michael T. Kiley & Laforte, Jean-Philippe, 2008. "Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 32(8), pp. 2512-2535, August.
Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?" International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, 3(2), pp. 173-201, June.
Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, 39(s1), pp. 101-125, 02.
Michael T. Kiley, 2004. "Stock Prices and Fundamentals: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, 77(4), pp. 909-936, October.
Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "An Analytical Approach to the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefit from Activist Monetary Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, 3(1), pp. 1-26, March.
Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?" Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, 41(3), pp. 392-406, July.
Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?" The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, 3(1), pp. 1-22, July.
Michael T. Kiley, 2003. “The Economic Impact of the Computer Revolution: A Progress Report.” In Paganetto, Luigi, The Knowledge Economy, Information Technologies and Growth, Ashgate Publishing, Dec. 2003.
Michael T. Kiley, 2002. "The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, 5(5), pp. 1-7.
Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, 34(2), pp. 283-98, May.
Michael T. Kiley, 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, 55(1), pp. 171-215, December.
Kiley, Michael T, 2000. "Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, 32(1), pp. 28-53, February.
Kiley, Michael T, 1999. "The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, 109(458), pp. 708-24, October.
Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Predicting Tax Rate Changes: Insights from the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, 20(1), pp. 153-167, January.
Michael T. Kiley, 1997. "Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost," Economics Letters, Elsevier, 56(2), pp. 215-221, October.
WORKING PAPERS (not published: previous five years)
Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
PUBLICATIONS (Monographs)
Financial Stability Board (member, informal working group), 3 July 2017, Framework for Post-Implementation Evaluation of the Effects of the G20 Financial Regulatory Reforms.
Financial Stability Board (member, informal working group), 3 July 2017, Framework for Post-Implementation Evaluation of the Effects of the G20 Financial Regulatory Reforms: Technical Appendix.
Macroeconomic Assessment Group (member) established by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, December 2010. Final Report: Assessing the macroeconomic impact of the transition to stronger capital and liquidity requirements.
Macroeconomic Assessment Group (member) established by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, August 2010, Interim Report: Assessing the macroeconomic impact of the transition to stronger capital and liquidity requirements. Bank for International Settlements.
OECD Economic Surveys: Iceland (with Hannes Suppanz and Douglas Sutherland), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, April 2003
OECD Economic Surveys: United States (with Hannes Suppanz and Elizabeth Docteur), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, November 2002
Social and Private Rates of Return to Research and Development in Industry: An Introduction & Main Report. CRS Reports 93-772E & 93-770E, U.S. Library of Congress, August 1993
ACADEMIC SEMINAR PRESENTATIONS
2024: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (November), Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting (November), Qatar Center for Global Banking and Finance–King's College London (July), Brookings Institution (June), Society of Government Economists Meeting (April), Federal Reserve Board (March), ASSA Annual Meeting (January)
2023: CEBRA Annual Meeting (July, New York), ICEA Pandemics, Labour Markets and Inflation Conference (June, Siena), University of Maryland Department of Economics (May), Central Bank Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop (April), Danmarks Nationalbank (February).
2022: International Centre for Economic Analysis Inflation Conference (January), Harvard University (February), Midwest Economic Association Spring Meetings (March), RiskLab/Bank of Finland/ESRB Conference on Systemic Risk Analysis (May)
2021: OECD (October), Bank of England (September), KDI School of Public Policy and Management (Seoul) Frontiers in Development Policy Conference (September), Duke University (School of Public Policy, February), University of California, Riverside (February)
2020: CEBRA 2020 (September), King's College, London (November)
2019: American Economic Association Meeting, Bank of Canada, De Nederlandsche Bank/ECB Conference on Monetary Policy and Low Interest Rates, Georgetown Center for Economic Research Biennial Conference, Bank of Finland, Brookings Institution (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)
2018: Interagency Early Warning Model Workshop (FRB Dallas/FDIC/FRB Philadelphia), Norges Bank, Royal Economic Society Annual Meeting
2017: Central Bank Modelers Workshop (Banque de France), Money, Macro and Finance Conference (King's College London), Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, Spring Meeting, ECB--Second Annual Macroprudential Policy Conference, National University of Singapore, Boston College, Banco Central do Brasil--Annual Conference on Financial Stability
2016: Barcelona GSE Summer School, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco The Future of Inflation Symposium
2015: Banque de France, Southern Finance Association, NYU-Stern and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Financial Intermediation Conference, Federal Reserve System Capital Markets Conference
2014: Harvard University, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, NBER Macroeconomics Annual Conference, Office of Financial Research/Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Annual Conference, Petersen Institute for International Economics
2013: ASSA Federal Reserve Day-Ahead Conference, DNB-Tilburg-JEDC Conference, Federal Reserve Second Annual Stress Test Modeling Symposium, NBER Monetary Economics Meeting (Fall)
2012: Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Minneapolis, BIS-IMF-Bank of Korea Conference on Macrofinancial Linkages (Seoul), Korea University (Seoul), Bank of England Workshop on Macroeconomic Models for Financial Stability
2011: Boston College
2010: CEPR Economic Policy Forum (Rome), BIS (Macroeconomic Assessment Group)
2009: Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, Cleveland, and New York, Society for Economic Dynamics (Istanbul), Key Developments in Monetary Economics (Handbook of Monetary Economics) Conference
2008: NBER Summer Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, European Central Bank
2007: National Association for Business Economics (Washington, DC), Federal Reserve System Policy Conference (St. Louis, May)
2006: Bank of Finland, DYNARE Conference (University of Paris I), European Central Bank
2005: Federal Reserve Board , Computing in Economics and Finance Meeting (Summer), Centre for Central Banking Studies – Bank of England
2004: Federal Reserve Board , Econometric Society Summer Meeting, Centre for Central Banking Studies – Bank of England
2003: Econometric Society Winter Meeting, Wesleyan University
2002: INSEAD, Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics (T2M) Conference (University of Evry Val d’Essonne), Bank of England, Baruch College—CUNY
2001: Federal Reserve Board , Econometric Society Summer Meeting, University of Wisconsin Madison (Department of Finance)
2000: Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, 12th Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar--University of Rome, Federal Reserve System Committee Meeting, WEA Conference
1999: University of Maryland, Southeast Economic Theory Conference, NBER Monetary Economics Meeting, Federal Reserve System Committee Meeting--Fall, IMF, NBER Summer Institute, Rutgers University, ASSA Meetings
1998: University of Wisconsin, Studienzentrum Gerzensee (Swiss National Bank), University of Michigan, NBER Monetary Economics Meeting, George Washington University, Brown University, Econometric Society Winter Meeting, AEA Meeting
1997: Northwestern University, NBER Summer Institute, Econometric Society Summer Meeting, UCLA, AEA Meeting
1996: MIT, Southern Economic Association Meeting, Federal Reserve System Committee Meeting--Fall, NBER Summer Institute, University of Virginia
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Married with three children
Birthdate: June 30, 1970
Citizenship: USA