Public Debt Management: Strategy and Evidence (forthcoming 2027). Cambridge University Press
Abstract: Effective public debt management can save millions of taxpayer dollars, ensure that needed infrastructure is delivered in an efficient and equitable way, and bolster trust in state and local government. When done poorly, it can squander taxpayers’ dollars and their goodwill. Given the tremendous complexity and careful scrutiny now surrounding municipal bonds, it’s more challenging than ever for public officials to get it right. As such, the goal of this book is to equip public debt management officials with a base of evidence to guide their strategic, policy, and tactical choices as they navigate the evolving municipal market landscape.
"Municipal Market Volatility: Concepts, Causes, and Consequences" (with Tom Doe and Sophie Lara). Under Review."
Abstract: We develop a framework to measure and explain volatility in the municipal bond market. Using new and existing data, we document a sustained increase in volatility over the past decade. We introduce three complementary measures: yield, price, and a forward-looking “VIX-style” index based on ETF options, along with a composite indicator that captures multiple dimensions of risk. We identify three primary drivers. First, the growing role of ETFs and separately managed accounts has made prices more sensitive to investor flows, amplifying volatility through redemptions and tax-loss harvesting. Second, Treasury market volatility transmits directly into municipal pricing through benchmark relationships and relative value adjustments. Third, investor sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty play an important role, especially over longer horizons. These findings suggest municipal volatility is increasingly driven by market structure and investor behavior, with important implications for borrowing costs and market stability.
"Physical Climate Risk Creates Challenges and Opportunities in US Municipal Finance” (with Aayushi Mishra, et. al.). Nature Cities 3 (January) (2026): 11-21.
"ESG Factors in Municipal Securities Disclosures: Toward a Materiality Concept." Northern Illinois University Law Review 44(3)(2024): 195-222.
"Diversification and Stability in Illinois Local Government Revenues" (with Wesley Janson). Illinois Municipal Policy Journal 8(1) (2023): 70-89.
"Local Lodging Taxes Before, During and After the Pandemic" (with Tom Hazinski). Municipal Finance Journal 44(1) (2023): 45-64.