Research

I presented my work in conferences such as the European Economic Association Congress, the Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Royal Economic Society Conference, the Urban Economics Association Conference, the European Association of Labour Economics, the European Public Choice Meeting, the Economic History Society Conference, the Silvaplana Workshop in Political Economy, the International Institute of Public Finance Conference, the International Panel Data Conference, the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, the conference of the Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics, the Economic Science Association Conference, the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics Conference, the Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data Conference, and the Portuguese Economic Journal Conference. 

Google Scholar profile here

Publications:

• The effect of Brexit on British workers living in Portugal: A synthetic control method approach (with Ana Venâncio). Cambridge Journal of Economics (2024).  

• Not so sweet: The impact of the Portuguese soda tax on producers (with Judite Gonçalves and Roxanne Merenda). International Tax and Public Finance (2023). Working paper version here

  • • Media: Expresso, Jornal de Negócios, Eco, Dinheiro Vivo

• Nobody’s Gonna Slow Me Down? The Effects of a Transportation Cost Shock on Firm Performance and Behavior (with Catarina Branco, Dirk Dohse, and José Tavares). Journal of Urban Economics (2023). Working paper version here

  • • “Call for Papers sobre “Internacionalização da Economia Portuguesa no Pós-Covid-19: Oportunidades e Desafios”, awarded by the Office of Strategy and Studies (GEE) of the Portuguese Ministry of Economy and AICEP

    • Media: Expresso, Observador, Eco, Rádio da Covilhã

• Failing Young and Temporary Workers: The Impact of Covid-19 on a Dual Labor Market (with Bruno Carvalho, Carolina Nunes, Susana Peralta, and José Tavares). The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2023). CEPR Covid Economics available here

  • • Media: Público 

• The virus that devastated tourism: the impact of covid-19 on the real estate market (with Mafalda Batalha, Duarte Gonçalves, and Susana Peralta). Regional Science and Urban Economics (2022). CEPR Covid Economics available here

  • • Media: Visão, Público

• Regional and Sectorial Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Electronic Payments (with Bruno P. Carvalho and Susana Peralta). Journal of Regional Science (2022). Working paper version here. Previous version: What and how did people buy during the Great Lockdown? Evidence from electronic payments. CEPR Covid Economics available here

  • • Media: Público 

• Can ATMs Get Out the Vote? Evidence from a Nationwide Field Experiment (with José Tavares and Pedro Vicente). European Economic Review (2021). CEPR Working paper version here

• Leave Them Kids Alone! National Exams as a Political Tool (with José Mesquita and José Tavares). Public Choice (2021). CEPR Working paper version here

  • • Media: Expresso 

• Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China – at Home and Abroad (with Sónia Cabral, Pedro Martins, and Mariana Tavares). Economica 88:350 (2021). IZA Working paper version here. Banco de Portugal Working paper version here.

  • • Media: VoxEU Blog, Expresso, Público, Economics in a Picture (Banco de Portugal)

• The Effects of Highway Tolls on Private Business Activity – Results from a Natural Experiment (with David Audretsch and Dirk Christian Dohse). Journal of Economic Geography 20:6 (2020). Working paper version here. Older version here

  • • Media: Expresso, Público (opinion), Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Negócios, Jornal Económico

• Brown Sugar, how come you taste so good? The impact of a Soda Tax on prices and consumption (with Judite Gonçalves). Social Science and Medicine  264 (2020). Working paper version here

  • • Media: RTP, TVI, Expresso, Público, TSF, Observador, Jornal de Notícias, Dinheiro Vivo, Jornal de Negócios, Jornal Económico

• Who seeks re-election: Local Fiscal Autonomy and Political Careers (with Susana Peralta). Public Choice 184 (2020). Working paper version here

Working Papers (Submitted):

• European Funds and Firm Performance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (José Mesquita and José Tavares). CEPR Working paper version here. Ungated version here

  • • Media: Visão 

• The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market (Diogo Leitão, Jaime Marques Pereira, and José Tavares). CEPR Working paper version here

  • • Presentation in the Online Economic History Workshop here

• Collateral Value and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Property Tax Reform (with Miguel Ferreira and Ana Venâncio). Working paper version here

  • • “Savings and Financing of the Portuguese Economy”, awarded by the Office of Strategy and Studies (GEE) of the Portuguese Ministry of Economy and the Portuguese Association of Insurers (APS)

    • Media: Expresso, Jornal de Negócios

• Public Expenditure and Private Firm Performance: Using Religious Denominations for Causal Inference (with Henrique Alpalhão, Marta Lopes, and José Tavares). CEPR Working paper version here

• Do short-term rentals increase housing prices? Quasi-experimental evidence from Lisbon (with Duarte Gonçalves and Susana Peralta). Working paper version here

  • • Media: LSE Business Review, Expresso, Diário de Notícias, Eco, Público, Público 

• Does Organized Crime Attract EU Funding? Evidence from Sicily (with José Tavares and Marlene Thomas) CEPR Working paper version here

• American treasure and the decline of Spain (with Carlos Javier Charotti and Nuno Palma) Working paper version here

  • • Media: VoxEU Blog

• Measuring the Carnation Revolution: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Economic Crisis in Portugal (1974-1992) (with Luciano Amaral and Bruno Lopes Marques)

• Cousins From Overseas: The Labour Market Impact of Half a Million Portuguese Repatriates (with Lara Bohnet and Susana Peralta). CESIfo working paper version here

• All that glitters? Golden Visas and real estate (with Kristina Strohmaier). EU Tax Observatory working paper version here

  • • Media: Expresso, Expresso, CNN Portugal, Sábado

Work in Progress (send me an e-mail to ask for preliminary drafts):

• Treasure islands, real jobs? The impact of reforming an EU low-tax jurisdiction (with Sónia Cabral, Joana Garcia, Raquel Miranda, and Susana Peralta)   

• Touristification and incumbent residents: evidence from personal income tax records (with Jorge Ferreira and Susana Peralta)   

• The electoral impact of a large return migration shock in a nascent democracy (with Miguel Fonseca and Susana Peralta)   

• Can the keyboard beat the good old pen? The effect of computer-based testing on students’ performance (with Pedro Freitas, Luís Catela Nunes, and Ana Reis)

• Attitudes Towards Immigrants: Evidence from Veterans of Colonial Wars in Africa (with Margarida Matos and José Tavares)

• Lonely Planet: The impact of Brexit on Tourism (with Vitor Cavalcante and Paulo M. M. Rodrigues)

  • • Media: UK in a Changing Europe (King's College), Sapo 24

Publications in peer-reviewed journals (other topics):

• For Whom the Bell Tolls: The Effects of Tolls in an Uncongested Motorway on Road Safety (with Alfredo Marvão Pereira and Rui Marvão Pereira). Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development. Working paper version here

  • • Media: Público, Jornal Económico, Autoclub

• Success and failure in portuguese Colonial Africa: the case of the Cazengo agricultural company (1900-1945).  (with Maria Eugénia Mata and Leonor Fernandes Ferreira) Entreprises et histoire 3 (2017): 53-73.

• More than just numbers: Suicide rates and the economic cycle in Portugal (1910–2013) (with Mariana Tavares and Pedro Pita  Barros). SSM- Population Health (2016). Volume 2, December 2016, Pages 14–23

Books/ reports:

• Barómetro da Habitação (with Alda Botelho Azevedo).  Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (2023).

  • Media:  RTP,  CNN Portugal, Porto Canal, Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias, Observador, Eco, Renascença, Público

• O impacto económico dos fundos europeus  (with José Tavares and Ernesto Freitas). Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (2017).

  • • Media: Expresso, Público, Rádio Renascença, Diário de Noticias

• Empresas privadas e municípios: dinâmicas e desempenhos (with José Tavares and Ernesto Freitas). Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (2016).

• Econometric Methods for Cultural Policymakers (edited by José Tavares, several co-authors) – Cultura e Desenvolvimento, Secretaria de Estado da Cultura (2015). Executive summary (in English) and full study (in Portuguese) available here

Book Chapters:

• O mercado imobiliário em Portugal. Several authors. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (2022).

• As melhores teses de economia. Several authors. Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos (2017).

• Economics and reality: an essay on deviation – Mateus Doc VII. Several authors. Instituto Internacional Casa de Mateus (2015)