On this page we report events as the corona virus epidemic is experienced by our 60 diarist households. 

The most recent events are shown first, so you will have scroll down deeply to find the earliest details about the epidemic.
Most recent posts simply report the 'comparing this month to last month' exercise that we began during the epidemic.

From January 2024 we have a new subpage which investigates why there has been a drop in our Diarists' use of MFI loans since the onset of Corona.  Access it here 

1st November 2024: The Goddess Durga helps keep spirits up

The number of Diarists who though the month was better than the previous month remained the same - 25 out of 60. The remaining 35 Diarists were split between those who thought it worse and those who the two months the same.

This was less to do with political problems or with income than with several Hindu Festivals that occurred in the month, including Durga Puja. 

1st October 2024: quite a sharp recovery

This month's chart shows a reversal on last month's, with many more Diarists thinking things had improved and far fewer thinking things got worse.

A wide variety of reasons were given for the improvement. It may be that things got better mainly because of the efforts of the Diarists rather than as a result of the calming of the political tension.


1st September 2024: more losses in August due to the political turmoil

Our Diarists were not as gloomy as last month but many reported declining income, and eleven of them specifically mentioned the political upheaval as a reason for that.

But compared to the previous month there were more Diarists whose income or health improved.

1st August 2024: the political disturbances take their toll

July saw political disturbances that affected commerce and employment, shut down the internet, and in some cases (though not in our area) caused injury and loss of life.

Our Diarists told us that July was one of the worst months in recent history. The astonishing gains of June were utterly reversed, with 41 of our 60 Diarists saying that July was worse than June. 25 Diarists mentioned income decline, 21 mentioned worsened health, and many others compared July unfavourably with the festival-rich month of June.

Of the very few who found July a good month (just six Diarists) health improvements were mentioned by three of them, and better income by just one - a record low!

1st July 2024: an astonishing recovery

After the very bad month of May comes a spectacularly good month in June, with more than three-quarters of our diarists voting it better than May.

This seems mainly the power of the Eid Festival to cheer people up. Not so much was said about income or health.

1st June 2024: finally, the collapse

After the festivities of April came a big cyclone in May and a slew of bad health, resulting in some of the worse figures for several months.

Those thinking that May was worse than April comfortably outnumbered those thinking it better. Compare that with the previous many months! (see directly below).

The cyclone itself was not mentioned as a reason, but for many diarists or their families health was very poor this month, and income fell.

1st May 2024: April was the least cruel month!

Despite the heatwave and despie the soaring inflation our Diarists liked April, for one big reason - its festivals. There was Eid, there was the Bengali New Year, and there was a Hindu Puja.

42 out of 60 Diarists mentioned how much they enjoyed these festivals. 

1st April 2024: a slight uptick

Results for March were quite similar to a month earlier. Slightly more Diarists than last time thought there had been an improvement, and slightly more thought things had worsened. The number who didn't commit to either view shrank to one-third of all Diarists.

Among those who thought things had improved it was because of better income rather than better health; but among those who thought things had got worse, health was the bigger problem.

Our Imam appreciated the start of Ramadam, which happened in March.


1st March 2024: not much change, again

The option chosen by the biggest group of them was to say 'the two months were similar'.

Income (helped by various welfare handouts) featured strongly among those who thought there'd been an improvement, but not among those who thought things had got worse - they were much more concerned about health. 

1st February 2024: a slightly better month

More diarists than last time thought the most recent month (January 2024) was better than the one before.

The variety of reasons given expanded somewhat. Among the reasons given for thinking that January was worse were no less than three cases of deaths within the close family.

1st January 2024: not much change

The same number of Diarists (17 of the 60) marked the current month (December) as a deterioration - the same as in November. Fewer said it was better, and an unusually large number thought there was no real change.

Income was the main determinant again, but there were also some interesting individual reasons for the answers.

1st December 2023: back to normal

The Diarists retreated from their upbeat mood of last month, with fewer than half of them considering November better than October. Concerns about income returned to the top of the list of worries for those who thought November worse.

1st November 2023: a festival boost

Once again their enjoyment of festivals has been a big factor in their minds when our Diarists compare one month with another. This time it is the main Benglai Hindu festival of Durga Puja.

Health worries declined, also. 

Remittances, welfare payments and MFI loans helped to improve inflows of money.


2nd October 2023: steady as she goes

September was like August: a small plurality of Diarists thought the latest month better than the previous one.

Among those who thought that September was worse than August poor income was not the main reason - poor health was. 

1st September 2023: ticking up again

Our Diarists found August somewhat better than July. Better income was the main reason, with improved health next in importance. Three Diarists got remittances.

Thos who thought August worse than July had deteriorating health or lower income. One Diarist lost some expensive gold jewellery. In another case a daughter-in-law left her Diarist mother-in-law's home without notice.

1st August 2023: reaction sets in

Poor incomes and worsening health were among the reasons given for July being worse than June. But most of the big majority of diarists who thought that July was worse than or the same as June didn't give clear reasons - they simply said that June had been good because they had enjoyed the Eid festival.


1st July 2023: a bounce-back for Eid

Enjoying the Eid al Adha festival was responsible for much of the very good result for June 2023. It was mentioned more often than improvements in income - which also did well this month. Several Diarists were able to sell animals for sacrificial slaughter.

Only two matters worried the minority of nine Diarists who thought June worse than May - lower income and health deterioration.

1st June 2023: a reversion

 After a very long series of monthly improvements, a sharp downturn has eventually happened. This was in part a reaction to the previous month's combination of the Eid Festival and the Bengali New Year, but there were also many reports of reduced income.

Overall there were a smaller number of reasons given for the changes, partly because a good number of Diarists didn't see much difference between the two months.

1st May 2023: a wonder-month

The best-ever month-on-month improvement was largely due to the fact that in April 2023 the Bengali New Year and the Eid Festival both occurred - and were enjoyed by our Diarists.

But negative factors were down to their lowest number ever, as well, with only 3 people reporting bad health, and only 2 reporting lower income, with just 3 other negative comments.

Those who said the two months were the same were also at record low numbers.

1st April 2023: better yet

Twice as many diarists thought March had been better than February than thought the opposite. Health was a factor again, and also home construction, as people used the cool dry weather to build. Several Muslims said they were enjoying peace of mind as a result of the Holy Month of Ramadan.

1st March 2023: still improving, but more slowly

This month, a plurality rather than a majority of Diarists thought that the month was better than the previous one. Quite a few thought there was no difference.

Far more Diarists thought that things had got worse than was the case last month, with low income and poor health dominating this view



1st February 2023: still getting better

The run of months in which a majority of diarists say that the month was better than its predecessor has grown again. This time there were however an unusally high fraction of Diarists saying "no change".

Health is fast disappearing as an issue. Better income is the most frequently given reason for improvement. Only two Diarists complained of high expenditure and no-one explicitly mentioned inflation.



1st January 2023: better yet

Once again a majority of Diarists thought that this month (December 2022) was better than last (November). The margin of 'better' over 'worse' was larger than last month.

Health declined as an issue. A Hindu 'kirton' (sung prayer celebration) was enjoyed by many. More MFI loans were issued than in recent months. 

1st December 2022: things improve again

It is now the fifth successive month that more Diarists thought the current month better than the previous one. Curiously, the split of numbers is the same as last month - 24 thought November was better, 20 thought it was worse and 16 thought the two months the same.

There was a wide range of reasons given this time, often concerning family relationships or MFI transactions. But health and income remain the big factors. 

1st November 2022: things still improving

For the fourth month in a row, more of our Diarists found the most recent month (October 2022) better than the previous one (September). 

Income gains or losses returned to their uncontested spot as the most often cited reason for the opinions. Notably this month, health was less often mentioned: only 6 Diarists reported declining health (compared with 10 the previous month) and most of the gains seem to have been already made - only one Diarist mentioned improved health this time (compared with 12 the previous month).

Once again enjoyng festivals - this time the Hindu festival of Durga Puja - was an important reason for liking the month.

1st October 2022: Yet more gains

Once again, more diarists thought that the just concluded month (September) was better for them than the previous month (August), This is the third straight month of advances. 

1st September 2022: August even better than July

July was much better than  June, our Diarists thought, but August, it seems, was even better. The improvement was rather slight, but is surprising given the sharp inflation Bangladesh is experiencing. Not many people complained about high levels of expense.

1st August 2022: my goodness, that was a good month!

Largely because so many of them enjoyed the Eid Festival, July for our Diarists proved to be the most postive month on record in our month-on-month comparisons. Two thirds thought July was better than June.

Twice as many Diarists saw income increase as saw it decrease, though for may there was little difference.

Health is not longer such a big determinant of how they saw things.

2nd July 2022: confidence slips again

When we ran are regular 'month on month' comparison file for June versus May we found that our diarists have turned gloomier again, and that health remains a big issue for many.

14th June 2022: the 'month-on-month' comparison over 26 months

Here we show how the 60 diarists responded to our question 'was this month better or worse than last month?' for 26 months starting in April 2020.
In 15 months, the 'better' responses outnumbered the 'worse', the opposite was true for 10 months and in one month they were equal.
Overall, there were 570 'better' responses and 494 'worse' ones. There were also 496 responses saying the two months were the same. 

In a future posting we shall look into why certain months were scored the way they were. A spoiler - the first month, April 2020, was when the severe COVID lockdown kicked in.

2nd June 2022: the diarists remain upbeat

Following their gradual turn to optimism over the last few months (see earlier charts below) an even larger plurality of our diarists coninued their upbeat turn of mind.

One reason was that many of them enjoyed the Eid Festival (or, if Hindu, enjoyed rthe increased economic activity it brings).

For those who thought things were worse, health remains the main concern.



There are only 59 diarists in the survey this month bexause one household has fled the scene, leaving debts behind: we are still trying to trace them.

15th May 2022: The Jaws of the Pandemic

We think this chart best sums up the impact of the pandemic on the financial lives of our diarists.
The data are for the same 60 diarists, over the same period from July 2015 to the end of 2021.






2nd May 2022: April considerably better than March

Half our diarists thought that April was a better month than March, and fewer of them were undecided. 

Better income retained its position at the top of the list of reasons for improvement, and less income regained its position at the top of the list of reasons for decline, ousting poor health, which only four diarists reported this month.

Several diarists reported the recipt of state benefits which were more plentiful in April than in earlier months. These include pensions and disability benefits


1st April 2022: like the previous month there's been some improvement but health remains a problem

Our diarists are slightly more optimistic than they were last month. Ten rather than 12 reported lower incomes. Health remains a main reason for their discontent, with more diarists citing poor health as a reason for pessimism than those reporting lowered incomes. One diarists died this month (from a stroke) and another is critically ill (our staff think it is not Covid). 

In three diarist households their were weddings for sons or daughters - this is the wedding season in Bangladesh. Also, three households were busy with successful building work.

1st March 2022: health remains a problem despite some recovery

Our diarists were evenly split on whether February was better than January. But more of them reported improving health than reported declining health. We guess that many of these illnesses are Covid but most are noit formally diagnosed. 

There were three deaths in the wider families of the diarists. One diarist was preventing from returning to his job overseas because he failed a Covid test at the airport.

1st February 2022: health problems spoil January 2022

The omicron variant of the corona virus has spread quickly in Bangladesh. In the diary area many people are sick with flu-like symptons which - though not tested - are likely to be corona. One of our staff and many of our diarists are suffering, but none of them has had it in an accute form.
All this is clearly shown in the month's 'Month-on-month' comparison.

3rd January 2022: December disappoints

Half the diarists thought that December and Novenber were similar, an unusually high number. The other half were inclined to believe things didn't improve in December.


2nd December 2021: November improves somewhat on October

Although October was much better than September in the view of our diarists, November was better still for a good number of them, outnumbering those who thought it worse.

Among the 15 who found November worse than the previous month there were only two reasons - declining income and worsening health in the family. For the 25 who found November there were many reasons for their view, with income and health again topping the list.

2nd November 2021: October much better than September!

Suddenly our diarists are upbeat! Partly this was to do with October's Hindu festivals including the big one, Durga Puja  (a big minority of our diarists are Hindus). 

But also several diarists found more work or income or found new jobs or new chances to get someone in the household overseas. There was a marriage (and a divorce) and some visits from relatives (and disappointment that a visit didn't happen.

Improvements to health were more frequent than deteriorations.

2nd October 2021: September same as or worse than August 

In the monthly survey there were a lot of diarists who found September and August much the same. Of the rest, slightly more thought that September had been worse than August. Perhaps worryingly, the main reason was not lower income (which is most often the case) but poor health.

Among those who did find September better than August there was a variety of reasons for their view, not dominated (as is often the case) by improved income.

1st September 2021: August a bit better than July

In our regular end-of-the-month survey, 25 of our 60 diarists said that August had been better than July, and for unusually consistent reasons - 21 said it was because income rose. 

One couple remarried (after several split-ups) and another moved into a new home provided by a state-backed charity.

Of the 20 diarists who thought August worse than July, 8 remarked that in July they had enjoyed the Eid al Adha festival.  Only 5 said income had fallen. 

3rd August 2021: sharp differences between the April 2020 and the July 2021 lockdowns

In April 2020 during the first lockdown, all kinds of transactions were few in number and very low in value. But with an even more dangerous COVID situation in July 2021, this was not so. On the inflow-transaction side, only financial transactions declined dramatically, mainly because MFIs and Co-ops were ordered to close. Income was maintained at the level of recent months or a little higher.

We talked to a number of diarists. A summary of their views is that

1 We are still afraid of COVID but it has been going on for so long now that we have no option but to try and live and earn as normally as possible

2 Over the months we have found ways to work around the difficulties and earn at least some money 

3 The MFIs and the Co-op are closed again: but in any case we have been using loans a bit less than we used to

1st August 2021: Despite the new lockdown, diarists again say things have improved 

As the Delta variant ravaged Bangladesh, a fresh and more severely policed lockdown was imposed from 1st July, but it was suspended for the duration of the Eid festival. Perhaps that is why, as in May and in June, more diarists thought that the current month was better than the previous one. The margin of 'better' over 'worse' has narrowed, though.

2nd July 2021: June better than May (even after May so much better than April!)

Despite the Delta-variant induced COVID spike in the country, our diarists had reasons to find June a better month than May - even though May was well up on April.


10th June 2021: Surviving two Covid lockdowns

We have posted a slideshow on the publications page which explains why the two lockdowns (of April-May 2020 and April-May 2021) were experienced so differently. The slideshow includes numbers from our data and the voices of our diarists. This particular slide shows how expenditure fell less steeply than income in the first lockdown.

1st June 2021: May was much better than April

In a startling recovery of fortunes, and in the midst of a lockdown, our diarists found May much better than April, by an unusually large margin of 25 to 12, with 13 diarists saying the two months were similar.

The range of reasons was also unusually wide. It was not entirely dominated by increases or decreases in work and income. For the first time, welfare payments showed up significantly (these were government disability and old-age allowances).  In May festivals for both communities were celebrated (the very important Eid al Fitr for the Muslims, and Charak Puja, a Bengali Hindu occasion). Several diarists said they enjoyed them.  

5th May 2021: exploring the April numbers

The second lockdown started on 5th April, and we learned from the previous post that many diarists (24 of them) thought that April had been worse than March, giving as their main reason a decline in work or income. Nevertheless, 14 diarists reported improved work or income (compared to the previous month). As a result, incomes for all 60 diarists combined did not fall in the disastrous way they did in April 2020, the main month of the first lockdown. 

Indeed locally-earned net income for the diarists as a whole was higher in April than in March. There was no sickening dip as there had been in April 2020. This is clearly seen in the new chart, below. 

Whereas in April 2020 nearly everyone suffered an income decline, this year some diarists did well while others didn't. We explored this by comparing the income histories of the various occupations that our diarists engage in. For this exercise, we compared the April 2021 gross incomes for various occupations with the average values for gross incomes for the previous 3 months (January-March 2021).

Overall, gross incomes in April 2021 were 91% of their average for January-March. We do not see drastic falls for any sectors other than shoes sales and repairs, and musical income (playing in bands, and singing at events): these two were at less than half their January-March level. Other poorly-performing sectors include hairdressing, dressmaking, newspaper-vending, laundry, plying a ferry boat, driving, and shop sales, all around 80 to 90% of their January-March levels. 

Among the sectors that did well in April were farm labour, up because the month coincided with a main harvest, farm sales, fishing, and rickshaw pulling. For some diarists, occupations fluctuate with available opportunities, so a fall in demand for shoe repairs can be compensated for by working as a farm labourer, or by hiring and driving rickshaw.

1st May 2021: the new lockdown makes April much worse than March

Bangladesh, like India next door, is experiencing a new spike of Corona cases and the government imposed a new lockdown from 5th April. At first it wasn't very strongly enforced, then during the month first strengthened then weakened again.

But it left our diarists very clear about what kind of month April had been: bad by a big margin compared to March. 24 out of 60 diarists said it was worse, and 21 of those 24 attributed the drop to less work or less income. There was only one other reason given: poor health.  

2021 UN WIDER Paper

The text of a paper on corona's impact on poor people in the Hrishipara area is available at https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/impact-covid-19-pandemic-poor

The paper is written by Prof Kunal Sen, Director of UN WIDER Helsinki, Risto Ronkko of WIDER, and diary director Stuart Rutherford, and is based on the diary data.

18th April 2021: here comes another lockdown

On 5th April 2021, with infection cases rising alarmingly, the government imposed a fresh lockdown. It was not enforced strongly for its initial week but then it was extended for a second week and has been enforced.

The chart shows weekly total net incomes for our 60 diaries (excluding remittances and a small number of other inflows). Incomes, after a couple of false starts, had been moving back to where they were before the 2020 lockdown. So far (mid April 2021) the numbers are not indicating a repeat of the catastrophic collapse of April 2020 - but we will be watching carefully.

9th April 2021: Transactions our diarists didn't make in March

We asked all 60 of diarists if there had been expenditure that they had wanted or needed to make in March 2021 but had been unable to. Most said 'no'. We looked at the remaining 22, to see if they were mostly the diarists with the lowest incomes. They weren't: as the chart shows, they were distributed randomly along the income scale.

See more in the blog on the Publications page

1st April 2021: Another unsatisfactory month for our diarists

In our 'month-on-month' survey more diarists thought March was less than good than February, while even more thought that there wasn't much to choose between them.

Worryingly, the main reason for the pessimistic reports this time was ill health, which was more reported than income falls, a rarity. With a new wave of corona infections hitting Bangladesh just now, we can only hope that these illnesses are not due to COVID-19.

1st March 2021: How the pandemic year has looked to our diarists, month by month

We ask our diarists each month if this month was better or worse than the previous month. As the chart shows, April 2020, the first full month of lockdown, was disastrous, with 56 of 60 diarists saying it was was worse than March. Loss of work and income were the main reasons given, followed by anxiety about the virus, and the inability to go out and about.

In late May the lockdown was relaxed and there was a big bounce-back. 

The influence of the major festivals is apparent. Eid al Fetr was celebrated in late May and Eid al Adha on the last day of July. Those are Muslim festivals, but 24 of our diarists are Hindu, and they celebrated Durga Puja in October. Their responses to our survey show that enjoying these festivals was an important reason for finding an improvement in these months.

More recently, things seem to have levelled to a new normal, with a growing proportion of diarists saying that they see no difference between successive months.

1st March 2021: February not quite as good as January

The monthly survey suggests that our diarists are still not seeing any dramatic improvement in their lives. Many thought that February was pretty much the same as January, which was not a particularly good month.

There was some good news. One diarist, a poor rickshaw driver, got a free government house. Another, a painter, opened a new tea shop. But eight diarist households had health problems and there was a death.

1st February 2021: January not much better than December

Our monthly survey comparing consecutive months shows that those Diarists who thought December and January to have been much the same were the biggest group. Then, those who thought January better than December somewhat outnumbered those that thought the opposite.

As usual there was a mix of reasons. Health problems, which include accidents, were important this time round, nudging income declines off the top spot among negative reasons. For one diarist, being forced to visit her estranged husband's home because his second wife had died was the main reason the month was bad.

Among the reasons for January being better, one Diarist said she had been allotted a subsidised home by the government - a very unusual event. Another said she was recovering from the shock she experienced the previous month from a murder than happened near her home.

1st February 2021: phone ownership doesn't seem to have changed much during the pandemic

The chart shows what percentage of diarists owns what kind of phone from 2016 to 2021. 

Smartphone ownership reached about 20% of diarists by mid 2017 but has remained stable since. Feature phones have become steadily less popular, and basic phones now dominate as much as ever.

The percentage of diarists without their own phone is shrinking very gradually, and it is worth noting that all but one of them has some kind of access to phones belonging to other family members. 


25th January 2021: interesting new reports:
one by MSC (formerly Microsave), and another by S K Sinha

MSC has a new report out on The Response to COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Find it at https://www.microsave.net/2021/01/12/response-to-covid-19-in-bangladesh/

S K Sinha managed the first ever financial diaries, in Bangladesh in 1999-2000. Recently he wrote up some interviews he did with low-income workers in Bangladesh and their experience of and attitude to the Corona pandemic.

Corona in Rural areas.pdf

6th January 2021: lower-income diarists appear more conservative in their savings habits

The chart shows monthly totals of saving deposits and withdrawals from MFIs and Co-ops for the 30 diarist households with the lowest household income (above) and for the 30 with the highest income (below). 

Deposit and withdrawal totals were, as one might expect, much higher for the better-off households. (NB the scales are not the same) But the poorer households withdrew about 80% of what they deposited, while the better-off ones withdrew almost twice as much as they deposited in the year. 

It also appears that the poorer households more consistently kept up their deposits in the difficult months following the lockdown (the lockdown was in April and May) while the better-off did less well in this respect.

Note: with a sample of this size, behaviour by a single diarist can greatly affect the outcome, and in this case a big withdrawal in December by just one of the better-off households pushes the total up by 300,000 taka. They withdrew the money to start building a house. Nevertheless, even if we  ignore this 300,000 taka withdrawals, withdrawals by better-off households remain at about 137% of deposits in the year (compared with 80% for the poorer households).

2nd January 2021: December was better than November

In our latest monthly survey, there were more than twice as many diarists who thought that December was better than November than thought things had got worse - though there were also many who thought there was nothing to choose between the two months.

The most common reasons - for both the optimists and the pessimists - were to do with the availability of work or income. 

2nd December 2020: where have all the loans gone?

The diarists had already begun to take fewer loans from MFIs, though they hold more and more of their savings there.

With the pandemic lockdown in April and May 2020 MFI loans dried up completely as the MFIs were closed.

Recovery since then has been very slow. In November, for example, only one MFI loan was issued - and the client didn't want it! She was 'requested' to take it by the MFI as a condition of keeping her savings account with them.

1st December 2020: November about the same as October

According to our monthly survey, November was about the same as October: a third of diarists thought it was better, another third thought it was worse and the remaining third thought the two months were the same.

Improved income or work was the main reason for those who liked November, whereas for those who disliked the month there were two main reasons: sickness, and reduced income or work.

29th November: Rice prices

We looked at the price that our diarists have been paying for ordinary plain white rice this year, and calculated the average price for each month from Februaryb to September

2nd November 2020: our diarists are more positive about October than September

35 of our 60 diarists thought October was better than September, and only 13 thought it worse. 

Improved income was a factor, but perhaps not the biggest one. About half our diarists are Hindu, and many of them said that enjoying the Durga Puja festival was the main reason. 

And only 4 diarists reported that income had got worse in October, as a reason for preferring September.


12th October 2020: corona has had little effect on mobile money use

The Hrishipara diarists have never used mobile money much. The main use has been to receive remittances from overseas, some of which get sent by agents via mobile money.

That hasn't changed during the corona period, though we do see a massive inflow of remittances for the July Eid al Adha festival. 

3rd October 2020: our regular month-on-month survey

This month our diarists have seen much less progress than in previous months. Only 12 out of 60 thought that September was better than August while 27 thought it was worse. The rest saw no change.

There was a wider variety than usual of reasons for their feelings.

1st October 2020: the schools are still closed

Schools in Bangladesh were closed by government order on March 17th 2020. They are still closed. We talked to all our diarists to hear their views on this, and discussed it with four local schoolteachers. Here is our report.

Schooling survey V2.pdf

11th September 2020: our regular month-on-month survey

As usual, at the end of August we asked all our 60 diarists whether August had been better than July, and why. The table shows their replies. 

7th September 2020: a post-festival income slump

In July incomes rose to above long-term average levels, as can happen in months when there's a big festival towards the end of the month. The pandemic didn't stop that happening ahead of the Eid al Adha festival that was celebrated in Bangladesh on 31st July. 

Our diarists tried to maximize their income ahead of the festival. Some worked longer hours. Some got tips. Some were lucky enough to have Eid-related goods to sell, or cattle or goats to sell for the sacrifice. 

Those with overseas remittance incomes did especially well as the overseas workers sent as much as they could before the festival. 

But it often happens that in the week or ten days after Eid al Adha things slow down. As a result, incomes slumped in August. Remittances fell from 333,000 taka in July to 5,000 taka in August.

3rd September 2020: shopkeepers are still lagging 

We keep records of the number of transactions we record each month. As you would expect, shopkeepers contribute more than others to this tally. The chart alongside shows that their share of transactions has yet to recover.  

23rd August 2020: how have the overseas workers been faring  in the pandemic?

In the new blog (see below. 10th August)) we discuss the remarkable rebound in remittances received by diarists from their family members overseas.

In this table we provide some notes about the situation that the 12 biggest remittance workers have faced. (We suggest you to right-click the image and open the table in a new tab).

The interviews were done in mid-August.

In most cases their work was interrupted but has now resumed at least in part. They got by on reduced pay, or on 'accommodation and food only' terms, or by digging into their savings (see following item). 

23rd August 2020: overseas workers and their savings

We noted (see the previous item) that overseas workers sometimes used their savings to get by while their jobs were on hold. 

That set us wondering about how and where and why overseas workers save overseas rather than remit everything back home.

So we interviewed a very small sample of just five overseas workers, but what we found was quite consistent:

These overseas workers do save; they save mostly formally in substantial sums; and they have good reasons for not remitting everything home. 

(We suggest you to right-click the image and open the table in a new tab).

10th August 2020: new blog

The fifth of our blog series on the corona virus, "Corona and the Hrishipara Diarists: July 2020: A big rebound -but only for some", covers what happened to our diarists in July 2020. Read it at the  Manchester University Global Development Institute's site. It has also been uploaded to our publications page. 

26th July: and now - the worst floods in 18 years

Not since we first came to Hrishipara in 2002 have we seen floods this deep. Hrishipara neighbourhood stands on the banks of the Shitalakshiya River. Between the houses and the river is a long sloping area used for farming and grazing. That area is now completely inundated and the water is beginning to lap at the doorsteps of the homes.

25th July: spending in June was at around 80% of pre-lockdown levels

We have compared the aggregated monthly spending of our 60 households to see how pre- and post-lockdown months compare. 

Our three chosen categories of spending - survival, delayable, and discretionary, stand in June at 80% of the January-February average. The chart also clearly shows how households continued spending on essentials but allowed 'delayable' spending to drop to almost nothing in the height of the lockdown. 

Discretionary spending was high in May because of the Eid festival.

15th July 2020: incomes before and after the lockdown

This chart shows how 20 of our 60 diarists had incomes in the immediate post-lockdown period that were larger than in the immediate pre-lockdown period. Notes show the occupations of the ten-best and best-worst performers. Remittance shows up strongly in both well- and poorly-performing cases.

The median % of income recovery for the 56 diarists in the chart is 76% (because of a small number of exceptionally big recoveries, the mean is 112%).

Both the best-ten and the worst-ten performers include a mix of very poor, poor and near-poor households. 

11th July 2020: new blog

The fourth of our blog series on the corona virus, "Corona and the Hrishipara Diarists: June 2020: Still waiting", covers what happened to our diarists in June 2020. Read it at the  Manchester University Global Development Institute's site. It has also been uploaded to our publications page. 

1st July 2020: savings and loan behaviour at the local co-operative

The Diary Project shares an office with a local financial Co-operative. Their numbers for June are just in and show a remarkable recovery following the end of the lockdown on the last day of May. 

Savings deposits in particular have grown back to their pre-corona levels. Loan disbursements and repayments were also strong in June. 

Perhaps the most notable aspect of the chart is that savings withdrawals have been lower than this writer expected both during and in the month following the lockdown.

Note: some but not all of our Diarists have accounts at this Co-operative.

24th June 2020: sales and stock purchases at a small village general store

The chart shows how sales and stock purchases for a small village general store have not recovered following the end of the lockdown. 

Aside from the expected reasons for this, such as the general economic decline, the shopkeeper mentions two other particular reasons for his poor sales. One is that because of fear of infection youngsters no longer gather and gossip near his shop. They used to be good customers for snacks and cigarettes and they used to buy groceries for their families. Another reason is that for lack of employment, some local people have started small businesses selling snacks and groceries from rickshaw vans, and he has lost some business to them. 

22nd June 2020: the shape of basic household spending, March 20th to June 20th

In this chart we look at spending on food, healthcare, and clothing, before, during and after the lockdown.

Food spending (in green, right-hand scale) dropped from its pre-lockdown norms, but not by a huge amount: diarists focused their spending on food and no-one went seriously hungry. At the Eid festival came a sharp but short-lived splurge.

Spending on health (in red, left-hand scale) also surged, but just after Eid, as the end of the lockdown was announced.

Clothing (in blue, left-hand scale) collapsed to nothing with the onset of the lockdown, but rose to meet the traditional demand for new clothes at Eid before sinking back.

16th June 2020: savings and loan transaction numbers start to recover after the lockdown

The previous slide (below) shows savings and loan transaction values at one small co-operative. In this new slide we paint a wider picture, showing the number of transactions made by the two formal Banks, one Co-operative Bank, and fifteen MFIs that transacted during the period shown.


10th June 2020: savings and loans start to recover, too

The previous entry shows how the number of transactions made by our 60 diarists has begun to grow again.

Here, we use a different perspective. The Hrishipara Diary Project is housed at Shohoz Shonchoy, a small local Co-operative MFI. Its clients are not restricted to our diarists, nor are all our diarists clients of the MFI. 

The chart shows how savings and loan transactions at the MFI fell when the lockdown was declared, but bounced back again in the first week after it was lifted.

9th June 2020: Transactions start to grow again

In normal times we record around 500 transactions each day from our 60 diarists. This number fell suddenly when the lockdown was introduced. It reached its smallest number on 17th April before starting a slow climb. 

A second plunge towards the end of April is explained by the Eid festival. 

Since the lockdown was lifted on 31st May the increase has resumed. Among the transaction types that are starting to show up again are transactions with MFIs.

5th June 2020: new blog

The third of our blog series on the corona virus, "Corona and the Hrishipara Diarists: May 2020: climbing for a fall?", which covers what happened to our diarists in May 2020, is available at the Manchester University Global Development Institute's site here. It has also been uploaded to our publications page. 

1st June 2020: Why April was the crueller month

We have completed our 'this month versus last month' survey where we ask our 60 diarist households if this month was better or worse than the previous month, and why.

Most thought that May was better, largely because they got more work, or their business income recovered a bit. But 19 thought that May was just as bad as April, because they couldn't see any improvement in their situation.

Just two thought May was worse, one because of a death in the household (not from COVID), and the other because income declined even further.

29th May 2020: from tomorrow, transport and offices are allowed to open: what will the MFIs do?

The MFIs have been closed since March 26th so (with a handful of exceptions) there have been no transactions.

But as our chart shows, 54 of our 60 diarists between them have accounts at 22 MFIs (and Co-ops), holding massive savings and considerable debt. 

Will MFIs resume lending? Will they release savings on demand? Through the eyes of our diarists, we will be watching!

25th May 2020: spending categories during the lockdown

We know from earlier entries (below) that, after the lockdown was declared, spending shrunk.

Here we show some detail of the six spending categories that our diarists households spent most on during the two months from lockdown to the eve of Eid.

24th May 2020: remittance flows before Eid

We know that overseas remittances around the world are down. This chart shows what happened to the seven diarists who most rely on remittances, by comparing this year's flows to the two previous years.

We see that the amounts vary - 2018 and 2019 are very different. But 2020 is exceptional, and not just for the decline in the total received (184,200 taka in 2020 compared with 542,000 in 2019). Note also the long period, from week 4 to week 8, when almost nothing arrived. These are weeks when the lockdown was most severely imposed.

22nd May: The corona crisis in the context of the life of a an unskilled labourer

Narendra has faced income crises several times since we started tracking his transactions in September 2015.

None were as severe as the one he has suffered since the corona lockdown.


17th May 2020: Eid is coming! Even the virus won't stop us buying new clothes for Eid

We reported on 26th April (see below) that our diarists had stopped buying clothes, even though in the month before the Eid festival (due this year on 23rd May) most Muslim households (and even some Hindus) usually spend a lot on clothes.

In the chart alongside you can see the lull in clothes buying. But then with the partial relaxation of the lockdown, and as Eid nears, old habits are returning!

15th May 2020: our diarists are sceptical about the relaxation of the lockdown

The lockdown is now substantially relaxed, so on 13th May we asked all 60 diarists if they welcomed that.

45 of 60 said they didn't welcome it, and they all gave the same reason: because it will increase the spread of the virus. The 15 who welcomed the relaxation also all gave the same reason: because people will be able to earn more easily.

The negative opinion was somewhat more prevalent among men (21 against, 5 in favour) than women (24 against, 10 in favour).

Among occupational groups, those who receive overseas remittances stand out as being the most opposed to relaxation. 

10th May 2020: a premature relaxation?

Although the government extended the lockdown to 16th May, it has signalled some relaxation from 10th May, saying that factories and shops may open. 

Even ahead of that, some shops opened in our area. On 9th May the barriers around the Hrishipara neighbourhood (see story and picture for 17th April, below) were removed.

We can see signs of the relaxation in our data. The chart shows how there has been a very shallow 'v' shaped recovery in the number and value of their transactions. As well as shops re-opening, rickshaws are running, and some daily workers are back at work.  

7th May 2020: new blog

Our second special monthly blog, entitled "Covid-19 and the Hrishipara Diarists: was April the cruellest month?" is now available on the Manchester University Global Development Institute site here. It described what happened to our diarists in April. It can also be read on our publications page. 

4th May 2020: taking a longer view - how April's total money flows compare to the average month over the last three years

All of the sixty diarists in our April 2020 project have been with us since late July 2017 (some have been with us much longer). We looked at the average monthly flows of money through their combined hands since August 2017 and compared it with the flows in April 2020.

These are the totals for all flows - income, spending, financial (savings, loans), gifts and so on. Transaction were mostly made in cash but there are a few mobile-money transactions.

1st May 2020: how much food relief are the diarists getting?

Food relief has been available, but not on a consistent life-supporting basis.

As the first chart shows, 24 of our diarist households have received food relief at some time or other. Between them they shared 50 packages of food. Each packet was typically 5kg of dry rice, 1kg of lentils, 1kg of soybean cooking oil, 1kg each of potato and onion, and a little salt and sometimes soap. The value of each gift is around 250 taka ($3 at market exchange rate). 

One diarist (very poor) has had six such packages, but she is exceptional. Others have had 1, 2 or at the most 3 packages.

There are a variety of providers. Government schemes account for the biggest share, but local 'neighbours' and 'elites' (particularly well-to-do neighbours) have between them given more often than the government. Those 'neighbours' include two of our better-off diarists. Other sources are shown in the second chart.

Our recent survey showed that almost all diarist believe that the government and 'elites' should provide food relief - and cash as well.

30th April 2020: why April was worse than March

Each month we ask our diarists to compare the month with the previous month - using whatever criteria comes to mind. In April their assessment turned very negative. Of the 60 diarists, 58 said April was worse than March. Virtually all of the 58 mentioned Corona virus in their answers, and the chart shows how many of them mentioned four key words.

Of the two who didn't say April was worse, one is mason's assistant who got work at a construction site that managed to stay open - he thought the two months similar. The other was a housewife who thought April was better than March because her husband and son found some harvesting work and earned more than usual.

28th April 2020: cash-in-hand after a month of lockdown

As recent postings have shown, our diarists households have been cutting back severely on some spending. As a result, their cash-in-hand balances have stood up surprisingly well. The median figure is that, after a month of lockdown, they have 80% of the cash they had before the lockdown.

The chart also shows that better-off households (in terms of income per person) have preserved their cash-in-hand balances only marginally better than the poorer households.

26th April 2020: no new clothes for the fasting month of Ramadan

In normal years our diarists spend a lot on clothes in the month leading up to the holy fasting month of Ramadan. Ramadan began on 25th April this year, so the month leading up to it is precisely the period since the lockdown began. 

The chart alongside compares this year with the two previous years. It looks as if this is where they made many of their enforced spending reductions.


(Note that dates of Ramadan are determined by the Muslim lunar year. In 2018 Ramadan was 16th May to 14th June, and in 2019 6th May 6th to 4th June).

....but they keep up their spending on mobile phone connectivity

24th April 2020: which foods have the diary households cut back on?

In normal times one would expect food expenditure to rise year-on-year, because of inflation and rises in the diarists' prosperity. But if we compare the month following the declaration of the lockdown with the same period in 2019 we find that spending has gone down by 10%.

The chart shows where the deepest cuts were made: in meat and poultry and in snacks and sweets. They also spent less on fruit, though spending on vegetables is unchanged. 

Spending on rice, the staple, was up a little and for some other items it rose quite steeply.

The chart shows spending on food and that is not the same as how much people are eating. Some diarists have a little land and are growing more vegetables than before. Some poorer diarists are eating some meals at the homes of relatives. Some food relief has been provided by public and private entities. 

There are about 241 people in these 60 households and the total food expenditure in the month under consideration was 268,824 Bangladeshi taka. (It was 299,699 taka in the same period last year).

This year, at market exchange rates, roughly  $13 was spent on food per person during the month (or about $1 a day per person at Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates).

Since the start of the lockdown the prices of foods which are shipped into the area, like rice and potatoes, have gone up somewhat, while locally produced perishable goods like eggs, milk and vegetables, have become cheaper.

23rd April 2020: multi-year comparison shows impact of lockdown on diarists' transactions 

The chart shows the total combined money transactions of all sixty of our diarist households for the one-month period from 23rd March to 22nd April for three successive years. 

We see that after the lockdown was declared on 23rd March 2020 both inflows and outflows shrunk dramatically to a third of their values in previous years.

21st April 2020: direct effects of the lockdown 

The chart shows weekly inflows and outflows for a diarist who runs a school tuck-shop during the day and mans a snack-stall in in the market in the evenings.

After the lockdown, his income entirely disappeared (aside from the small reward he gets from the diary project) and he has severely restricted his household spending.

He told us "when this is all over life may not be stable for a long time as there'll be many jobless people"

21st April 2020: disease, income loss, and hunger

38 of our 60 diarists have talked to us about about what they most fear in the present situation. The risk of catching the disease, loss of income, and anxiety about food dominate what they said. A few are so frightened of the disease that it has blotted out other worries. Many see the disease as the immediate threat and hunger as a looming one. Here are a few examples of what they said:

20th April 2020: has the corona outbreak changed your daily routine?

We asked this question of 23 of our diarists. Only two said 'no'. 

One is a widow who runs a tiny village shop. She says that she sits in her shop just as before, and what has changed isn't her routine but her sales, which have plummeted. Others in the house have lost their jobs and the whole family now spends much of its time watching TV and trying not to think too much about food. 

The other is married to a man with a reputation for laziness, and they have a son who has inherited the same trait. She says "I cook, clean, and look after the cow just as before. My husband and my son sit around doing nothing much, just as before. What I can't do any longer is visit my father's house". Our records show that her parents have been generously supporting them over the years with cash gifts to make up for the household's income shortages. 

Among the 21 who say their routine has changed, the most commonly reported changes are  loss of employment and of the opportunity to go out. Being unable to visit relatives distresses them. Many say that they now spend a lot of time watching TV, resting, and praying or watching sermons by popular religious leaders on their phones. A youngster who normally serves table in a tea-shop is now "getting up later, and playing more games on my phone".

A few have managed to rearrange some of their work. A barber now takes orders by phone and goes to his clients' homes, after dark, to cut their hair. A rickshaw driver starts work at 6 in the morning and works for a couple of hours because "at that time the police and the army are still asleep so they don't bother us, and I can get some passengers among those who are also using this chance to get some work done". A minority who have a bit of farmland or a larger garden are spending more time growing vegetables: though the diarists with the biggest landholding is neglecting her paddy fields as she's too scared to out.

as long as we can get back by 8 o'clock...

19th April 2020: indirect effects of the outbreak (1)

Majeda (not her real name) is a cleaner at the hospital where there has been an outbreak of corona cases (see entry for 17th April below). The house where she lives with her husband and three children has no water connection, and for years they have taken water from her neighbour's tap. 

But the outbreak at the hospital has scared the neighbours, and although she hasn't worked at the hospital for the last week and isn't (as far as she knows) infected, they have forbidden Majeda to come near them or to use their water tap.

Today she spent $PPP 15 on a length of plastic piping, and is planning to hook it up to the neighbour's groundwater pump-set: the neighbour has said that'll be OK. We'll let you know if she succeeds.   PS on 20th April: yes, she did.

18th April 2020: further income declines

Of our 60 diarist households, only five received any income on 17th April- the lowest total so far. Those five were:

The situation on 18th April was very similar: income came to the same two shopkeepers and in very small amounts to five other diarists. On 18th, as on most days since the lockdown began, not much money came in in the form of gifts. Just two diarist households got cash gifts. A few more households got gifts of food, organised by local entities such as school committees.

17th April 2020: the situation suddenly worsens; barriers are being erected; the first diarist becomes infected

For the first time, one of our 60 diarists has been confirmed infected. He is an orderly at the local government hospital and is one of 13 people employed there who are confirmed infected and are now isolated at home. He was doing relatively well, because his government salary (and that of his wife who works at the same hospital) insulated him from income loss, and he was continuing to build a new home. His test was done in his own hospital - so he is sceptical of its accuracy and is trying to have his sample sent to Dhaka for verification. The hospital is a five-minute walk from our project office.

The infections at the hospital are part of a sudden worsening of the situation, both nationally and locally. More testing is revealing more cases, and cases are now doubling in the country every three days. The local authorities in our area have strengthened social-distancing control. Rickshaws are not allowed to ply. All shops (including mobile money agents) are closed except pharmacies. As a result we have seen a further drop in income and in the number of transactions we record each day (down to just 169 on 15th, from a pre-corona average of around 500). 

Local people are building bamboo and corrugated-metal barriers on roads and alleyways, to stop outsiders entering. Our Project Manager describes the situation as 'panic'.  Right across the road from his office tin roofing sheets are blocking off passageways into the Hrishipara neighbourhood.

view of a passageway into Hrishipara neighbourhood, from our project office

14th April 2020: New Year's Day: income decline continues, but what exactly are the diarists buying?

As the chart shows, both income and expenditure are declining, but expenditures continues to be greater than income. We analysed the data for 13th April to see exactly what they are buying.

12th April 2020: income declines by size of household income - who did worst?

We looked at the 2019 incomes of our 60 diarist households and divided them into quartiles. We then analysed which quartiles have suffered the biggest income losses during the present crisis.

As the chart shows, the households with the biggest 2019 incomes suffered the steepest relative declines. But the absolute values to which the lower-income households have fallen in later March and early April are very worrying. 

The scale is in $ PPP (dollars at an exchange rate that takes into account the fact that a $ buys more in Bangladesh than in the US). Note that these household incomes are not adjusted for the number of people in the household.  

The second quartile fell into negative income in April 5-11 because they include some shopkeepers who bought expensive stock that they couldn't then sell. 

11th April 2020: lockdown extended again: a change of mood among our diarists?

When the lockdown started on 26th March our observations and conversations with our diarists suggested they were more frightened of the disease than the economic effects. The newspaper vendor in the chart alongside, for example, stopped selling papers - even though they were still available from the wholesaler - because he was scared of going into the street to sell them. 

He thought he could muddle through the crisis, partly because he had heard it wouldn't go on for very long. But then they extended its period, and then again, and then again, so now it is extended to 25th April.

As a result we see a different view emerging among our diarists. They are becoming more concerned about the loss of income. 

8th April 2020: cash balances in the home are holding up - how did they manage that?

After ten days of lockdown cash reserves held at home have held up remarkably well. Some diarists have increased their balances, and a big majority still have at least 75% of their pre-lockdown balances. How can this be?

The single biggest factor is 'belt tightening'. Since we started the diaries in mid-2015 we have noticed that diarists have a strong tendency to adjust expenditure to suit income. In this particular and very severe case they have cut down very heavily on all but food shopping (see earlier charts on this page). Of course, the fact that many shops are closed has helped them maintain this discipline.

Other factors are less important. Receiving gifts or charity has not risen above normal levels, and nor has borrowing nor withdrawing of savings. Remittances are down. Diarists have not yet begun to sell off assets.

Some of the poorer diarists have begun to get baskets of food as part of a government relief programme: this helps but is still in its infancy.

The diary project gives each diarist a small participation reward of just over $1 a week: though this sum is small it pushes up the relative cash balances of the very poorest of our diarists.

(Note: we have omitted one outlier from the chart: he is one of the least poor and his balance shot up because he received a planned loan for house construction) 

6th April 2020: which occupations are doing better during the lockdown?

In the table we divide our 60 diarists by occupation types and show which of them maintained a good proportion of their normal income after the lockdown started,and which didn't. Overall, they earned a third (37%) of what they would normally expect: but some fared a lot worse than that.

3rd April 2020: the economics of a small village shop in corona times

Village shopkeeper reports: "when people heard there may be a lockdown they bought a lot of of goods, especially rice and cigarettes. Prices rose quite sharply. I bought extra stock. But wholesale prices were also high and I worried that as my customers have decreased I may get stuck with too much expensive stock. So I have cut back and will wait to see what happens."

3rd April 2020: some diarists are back at work but income collapse continues; food purchase volumes remain erratic

A handful of our diarists found some work yesterday. Our poorest diarist, a widow who does odd jobs in the vegetable market, was able to carry water for some stall-holders. A construction labourer got some work on a site somewhat removed from the main roads. A rickshaw driver reported that though there were few customers, there were also few rickshaws plying the roads so he got some fares. But there are exceptions and for most diarists the acute stage continues. 

2nd April 2020: lockdown extended: our first special corona blog

The lockdown in Bangladesh has been extended to April 11th. The very precipitous drop in food purchases reported here on 29th March somewhat reversed in the last two or three days though spending generally remains well down. We have published "Covid-19 and low-income households in central Bangladesh" telling the corona story for March and it can be read on the Manchester University Global Development Institute site here.  It can also be found on our publications page.

30th March 2020: income falls for four occupations

Food purchases late March.pdf

29th March 2020:  food purchases fall; police and army presence noted - more shops and construction sites close

Graphic shows food purchases per day per diarist household, in US$ at market exchange rate. Five-day moving average. Food stalls in the market remain partially open.

A shopkeeper well away from the main roads tells us he thinks he'll have to close as the police and army patrols reach the interior villages. Similarly some construction work has now closed for the same reason

28th March 2020: government food relief starts; mixed picture on MFI services

Two of our diarists received baskets of foodstuffs (5kg rice, 1 kg soya bean oil, 500grm lentils, 250grm garlic, 500grm onion) under a new Government corona-related relief scheme: both diarists are very poor, if not the poorest.  The Manager of the local branch of Grameen Bank, a leading MFI, tells us that his head office has told him to close all operations including the release of savings. Another MFI, and a Cooperative, tell us they are finding ways to allow clients to take back their savings.

27th March 2020: income and employment collapse, and expenditure falls; MFIs close

The combined locally-earned income of all 60 diarist households collapses after the imposition of the lockdown by the government (see graphic below). Hardest hit are those running or working in shops and tea-stalls and restaurants and hairdressing. Casual and construction jobs are also lost though some activity is still happening in those sectors. Rickshaw drivers and ferry-boatmen are experiencing low demand. Diarists who depend on overseas remittances report many cases where the jobs have been stopped. MFIs (micro-finance providers) have shut up shop, and it remains to be seen whether their clients (who include a majority of our diarists) will be able to withdraw their savings. 

27th March.pdf

26th March 2020: lockdown begins

The government-imposed closure of all shops and offices nationwide comes into force.  Many diarists report loss of work opportunities. Others report that family overseas are unable to work and will not be able top send remittances.

23rd March 2020: corona virus arrives nearby

Local people become aware of a cluster of corona-virus patients in a village about 10km from our research area. None of our diarists reports being affected by the outbreak but see purchases of masks and of soap rising.

18th March 2020: overseas remittance senders in difficulty

We hear reports that some local people who are home on leave from overseas jobs have been told not to go back to their work countries. However, none of our diarists are in this situation.