Rogers, M.L. & Pridemore, W.A. (2018). Do national homicide rates follow supranational trends? Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency.

Abstract

Objectives

We explored supranational trends in national homicide rates. We searched for a global trend, regional trends, and trends specific to other theoretically relevant groups of nations. We also tested two common metanarratives – modernization and conflict – as potential explanations for any global trend present in homicide rates.

Methods

We obtained annual homicide victimization rates for 94 nations between 1979 and 2013. We examined year-to-year differences, squared semi-partial correlation coefficients to search for supranational trends, and pooled cross-sectional mixed models to test potential explanations of any global trend.

Results

There was a very weak global homicide trend. We found strong regional trends in Eastern Europe and in Northern Europe, a weak trend for South and Central America, and no trend for Asia. Both wealthy and non-wealthy nations exhibited weak trends. Transitional nations shared a strong homicide trend. Modernization and conflict theories fared poorly as explanations for the weak global trend.

Conclusions

The presence or absence of supranational homicide trends holds significant implications for theory. A weak global trend is evidence against widely held metanarratives like the modernization, civilizing, and conflict perspectives. Strong sub-regional homicide trends in Eastern Europe and Northern Europe demand further exploration and should shift popular attention away from Western Europe. The lack of a homicide trend in developed or developing nations and the presence of a strong trend among transitional nations are curious features requiring further consideration.