Publications

My research cloud, based on the titles of my papers

Selected publications

The international dimension of trend inflation, 2024, with Luca Fosso, Journal of International Economics, 148, 103896, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103896.

Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound, 2023, with Sophocles Mavroeidis, Nigel McClung, Journal of Economic Theory, 214, 105745, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105745.

Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations, 2023, with Stefano Fasani, Jakob Grazzini and Lorenza Rossi, Journal of Monetary Economics, 140, S48-S63. Video presentation, Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2022, Cleveland FED

Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It's all in the monetary-fiscal mix, with Peder Beck-Friis, Anna Florio and Alessandro Gobbi, 2023, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 134, 1-15. New Appendix.

The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment, 2022, with Sophocles Mavroeidis, The Journal of Monetary Economics , Volume 127, 1-17.

Non-linearities, state-dependent prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, 2022, with Timo Haber, The Economic Journal, Volume 132, Issue 641, 37–57.

Empirical Evidence on the Euler Equation for Consumption in the US, with L. Magnusson and S. Mavroeidis , 2021, The Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 117, 129-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.12.004 ; Technical Supplement (186 pages!)

Walk on the Wild Side: Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots, with P. Bonomolo and H.F. Lopes, 2019, The American Economic Review, vol. 109(5), 1805-42.

On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation, with L. Phaneuf and E. Sims, 2018, The Journal of Monetary Economics , vol. 99, 56-71.

The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation, with A. Sbordone, 2014, The Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 52(3), 679-773. (405 citations in GS, 54 in Scopus)

Trend Inflation and Firms Price-Setting: Rotemberg vs. Calvo, with L. Rossi, 2012, The Economic Journal, Vol. 122 (563), 1115–1141.

Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy, with T. Ropele, 2009, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(8), 1557-1584. (290 citations in GS, 52 in Scopus)

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Low Trend Inflation, with T. Ropele, 2007, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 2568-2583. (218 citations on GS, 40 in Scopus)

Staggered Prices and Trend Inflation: Some Nuisances, 2004, Review of Economic Dynamics ,7, 642-667. Technical Appendix. (479 citations on GS, 111 in Scopus)

Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and the Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks, 2000, The Economic Journal, 110, 664-686. (129 citations on GS, 43 in Scopus)

All publications

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy, 2024, with Dennis Bonam and Andra Smadu, Journal of International Money and Finance, 142, 103029, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103029.

The international dimension of trend inflation, 2024, with Luca Fosso, Journal of International Economics, 148, 103896, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103896. Previous versions titled The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve : December 2021 , April 2021

Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US, 2024, with Qazi Haque, Leandro M. Magnusson and Sophocles Mavroeidis. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3037

Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound, 2023, with Sophocles Mavroeidis, Nigel McClung, Journal of Economic Theory, 214, 105745, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2023.105745

Price level targeting under fiscal dominance, 2023, with Anna Florio and Alessandro Gobbi, The Journal of International Money and Finance , Vol. 137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102876

Business Dynamism, Sectoral Reallocation and Productivity in a Pandemic, 2023, with A. Colciago and R. Silvestrini, European Economic Review , Vol 156. Replication Package GitHub, Online Appendix. This project is part of the Epidemic-Macro Model Data Base (Epi-MMB). DNB working paper No. 725, 2021.

The (Ir)Relevance of Rule-of-Thumb Consumers for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations, 2023, with Alice Albonico and Qazi Haque, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13057

The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment, 2022, with Sophocles Mavroeidis, The Journal of Monetary Economics , Volume 127, 1-17.

(Dis)Solving the ZLB equilibrium through income policy, with Jacopo Bonchi, 2022, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54, 519-535. Online Appendix , previous version November 2020

Non-linearities, state-dependent prices and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, 2022, with Timo Haber, The Economic Journal, Volume 132, Issue 641, 37–57. Online Appendix (59 pages)

The public debt multiplier, with Alice Albonico and Alessandro Gobbi, 2021, The Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Volume 132

Controllling Inflation with Timid Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes, with A. Florio and A. Gobbi, 2020, International Economic Review, vol. 61, 1001- 1024; wp 2017 version: Controlling Inflation with switching monetary and fiscal policies: expectations, fiscal guidance and timid regime changes ; previously also circulated as: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: Leeper (1991) Redux, (version March 2016)

Walk on the Wild Side: Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots, with P. Bonomolo and H.F. Lopes, 2019, The American Economic Review , vol. 109(5), 1805-42, previously circulated as Rational Sunspots, 2016 (version March 2016),.

Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model, with J.E. Arias, N. Branzoli and E. Castelnuovo, 2020, The International Journal of Central Banking, June, 51-94. available as Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia wp No. 17-16, and Melbourne Institute wp 09/2018 .

On the Welfare and Cyclical Implications of Moderate Trend Inflation, with L. Phaneuf and E. Sims, 2018, The Journal of Monetary Economics , vol. 99, 56-71

High Trend Inflation and Passive Monetary Detours, with A. Florio and A. Gobbi, 2018, Economics Letters, vol.172, 138-142

Determinacy analysis in high order dynamic systems: The case of nominal rigidities and limited asset market participation, with A. Colciago and L. Rossi, Economics Letters, 2018, 159, 82-87. Technical Appendix

Transparency, Expectations Anchoring and the Inflation Target, with A. Florio and A. Gobbi, 2017, European Economic Review, vol. 91, 261-273. Online Appendix; old version July 2015, first version 2012

Limited Asset Market Participation, Sticky Wages and Optimal Monetary Policy, with A. Colciago and L. Rossi, 2017, Economic Inquiry, 55(2), 878-897. Technical Appendix

VERSION January 2015: Boom and Burst in Housing Market with Heterogeneous Agents, with A. Spelta and N. Pecora, 2018, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(7), 1808-1824, doi:10.1017/S1365100516000882

Inflation Persistence, Price Indexation and Optimal Simple Interest Rate Rules, with N. Branzoli, 2015, The Manchester School, Volume 83, Issue Supplement S3, p. 1-30. Invited paper: Special Issue: Growth and Business Cycle in Theory and Practice. Proceedings of Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Conference, September 2015, DOI: 10.1111/manc.12117

The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation, with A. Sbordone, 2014, The Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 52(3), 679-773. APPENDIX. wp versions: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 628, Department of Economics and Management Working Paper Series #53 (10-13). Here you can find some codes (and a readme file) and here is a detailed (long and somewhat unpolished) LONG APPENDIX that could be useful for students and beginners. Johannes Pfeifer has replication codes on his fantastic Dynare code webpage.

Discussion of "Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?" by F. Ruge-Murcia, 2014, International Journal of Central Banking, June issue, 327-335.

Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule, with T. Ropele, 2013, European Economic Review, vol. 61 (C) , 77-100, wp version, Bank of Italy, working paper no. 867, April 2012.

Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models, with G. Fagiolo and A. Roventini, 2013, Macroeconomic Dynamics, doi:10.1017/S1365100513000473. wp version: Quaderni di Dipartimento #157 (1-12), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

The Effectiveness of Government Debt for Demand Management: Sensitivity to Monetary Policy Rules, with N. Rankin, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 37 (8), 1544–1566. Previously circulated as Taylor Rules Cause Fiscal Policy Ineffectiveness.

Trend Inflation and Firms Price-Setting: Rotemberg vs. Calvo, with L. Rossi, 2012, The Economic Journal, Vol. 122 (563), 1115–1141. wp version: Quaderni di Dipartimento #100 (07-09), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia. Replication codes.

Disinflation in a DSGE Perspective: Sacrifice Ratio or Welfare Gain Ratio?, with T. Ropele, 2012, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 36, 169-182. wp version, Bank of Italy, working paper no. 736, January 2010.

Sacrifice ratio in a medium-scale New Keynesian model, with T. Ropele, 2012, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44 (3), 457-467.

Regional Patterns of Inflation Persistence in Italy, with A.Vaona, 2012, Regional Studies,Vol. 46 (4), 509-523. wp version: Quaderni di Dipartimento #69 (02-07), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

Macroeconomic Models: Better Horses for Thougher Courses, The Manchester School, Supplement 2011, 17-20, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2011.02265.x. From a round table on the Future of Macroeconomics at the 2010 Annual Conference of the Money, Macroeconomics and Finance (MMF) Research Group, Limassol, 2 September 2010. Panelists: Hashem Pesaran (University of Cambridge), Guido Ascari (University of Pavia), Marcus Miller (University of Warwick) and Richard Werner (University of Southampton)

Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a Trend Inflation World: An Empirical Investigation, with E. Castelnuovo and L. Rossi, 2011, Journal of Economic Dynamics And Control, Vol. 35 (11), 1852-1867. Appendix. wp version: Quaderni di Dipartimento #108 (01-10), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

Real Wage Rigidities and Disinflation Dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg Pricing, with L. Rossi, 2011, Economics Letters, Vol. 110 (2), 126-131. wp version: Quaderni di Dipartimento #116 (07-10), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

Il modello Neo-Keynesiano, politica monetaria e dinamica dell'inflazione. Perchè l'inflazione è persistente?, saggio ad invito per la Rivista di Politica Economica, 2009, 1, 23-63.

The Long-run Optimal Degree of Indexation in the New Keynesian Model models with price staggering à la Calvo, with N. Branzoli, 2010, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 30 (1), 482-493.

Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy, with T. Ropele, 2009, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(8), 1557-1584. Appendix, wp version, Bank of Italy, working paper no. 708, May 2009. Old wp version, 2005 , Quaderni di Dipartimento #55 (10-05), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

Real Wage Rigidities and the Cost of Disinflations , with C. Merkl, 2009, The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 41 (2), 417-435. wp version, 2005 , Quaderni di Dipartimento #68 (02-07), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia;

Optimal Simple Rules and the Lower Bound on the Nominal Interest Rate in the Christiano-Eichenbaum-Evans model of the U.S. Business Cycle, with N. Branzoli, 2007, Portuguese Economic Journal, 6, 117-131.

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Low Trend Inflation, with T. Ropele, 2007, Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 2568-2583. Longer previous working paper version available as: The Optimal Stability-Oriented Monetary Policy: Optimal Monetary Policy Under Low Trend Inflation, with T. Ropele, Quaderni di Dipartimento #167 (05-04), Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Metodi Quantitativi, Università degli studi di Pavia.

Perpetual Youth and Endogenous Labour Supply: A Problem and a Possile Solution, with N. Rankin, 2007, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29, 708-723. ECB wp version, No. 346, 2004.

Relative Wage Concern: The Missing Piece in the Contract Multiplier?, 2004, with J.A. Garcia, Research in Economics, 58, 343-369.

Staggered Prices and Trend Inflation: Some Nuisances, 2004, Review of Economic Dynamics ,7, 642-667. Technical Appendix.

Price/Wage Staggering and Persistence: a Unifying Framework, 2003, The Journal of Economic Surveys, 17 (4), 511-540.

Staggered Wages and Output Dynamics under Disinflation, 2001, with N. Rankin, Journal of Economic Dynamics And Control, 26 (4), 653-680.

Optimising Agents, Staggered Wages and the Persistence in the Real Effects of Money Shocks, 2000, The Economic Journal, 110, 664-686.

Superneutrality of Money in Staggered Wage-setting Models, 1998, Macroeconomic Dynamics , 2, 383-400.

Sintesi della Tesi: Un Modello Dinamico con Agenti Ottimizzanti e Salari Sovrapposti, PREMIO SIE 1997, Rivista Italiana degli Economisti, 1997/3, 464-468..

Deflazione, Disinflazione e Modelli a Salari Sovrapposti, 1997, Il Giornale degli Economisti ed Annali di Economia, 56, 235-273.

Football Economics

Evaluating Rent Dissipation in the Spanish Football Industry, with P. Gagnepain, 2007, The Journal of Sport Economics, 8, 468-490.

Spanish Football, with P. Gagnepain, 2006, The Journal of Sport Economics, 7, 76-89. (194 citations on GS, 70 in Scopus)

Miscellaneous

Taxing a Monopolist, with P. Bertoletti and M. Menegatti, 2005, Research in Economics, 59, 321-334.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in the Italian Regions, with Valeria Di Cosmo, Scienze Regionali/Italian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 4, 2, 2005, 27-49. For this paper Valeria was awarded the Premio di Laurea “Giorgio Leonardi”, offered by Società Italiana di Scienze Regionaliand the Premio Sapio 2004 per la Ricerca Italiana.