Monetary Policy under Network-Level Bottlenecks
With Nick Sander, Sihwan Yang, and Sebastian Wende
A production-network model shows that temporary sectoral bottlenecks steepen the Phillips curve and create trade-offs between stability during and after constraints bind, while coordinated monetary tightening reduces inflation spillovers across regions.
Media coverage: The Economist
Related policy work: World Economic Outlook
Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia
With Husnu Dalgic
Dollar invoicing predicts exposure to currency risk empirically, while a small-open-economy model shows that dollar pricing and dollar liabilities jointly make depreciation recessionary and raise the currency risk together with risk-adjusted neutral interest rate.
Paper · Appendix · IMF Working Paper
A Silver Lining in the Silver Economy: Macroeconomic Implications of Healthy Aging
With Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, and Diaa Noureldin
Model simulations suggest that healthy-aging trends could add about 0.4 percentage point to annual global GDP growth over 2025–2050, partly offsetting the economic drag from population aging.
Media coverage: Financial Times · Freakonomics
Related policy work: World Economic Outlook
Cost-of-Living Crises: A Cross-Country Approach
With Marijn Bolhuis, Braulio Britos, Bertrand Gruss, Chiara Maggi, and Sihwan Yang
In preparation for NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2027
International Economic Sanctions and Monetary Policy
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Sangwoo Park
Monetary Transmission Mechanism
With Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Gee Hee Hong
Monetary Policy, Trade, and Commodity Price Fluctuations
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Larry Schembri
War and Macro
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Jiyoung Lee
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Ambiguity
With Burçin Kısacıkoğlu