Are Older Adults Healthier than Before? Global Evidence on Healthy Aging
With Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, and Diaa Noureldin
The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 34, 100638 (2026)
Across 41 countries, successive cohorts reach older age in better physical, cognitive, and mental health, with the strongest gains in cognition but persistent disparities across countries and socioeconomic groups.
Related policy work: World Economic Outlook
Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool?
With Fabio Ghironi
Journal of International Economics, 158, 104180 (2025)
Interest rate uncertainty as a capital-flow management policy affects the composition of capital flows between short-term bond and FDI, with nonlinear New Keynesian model showing that welfare improves when countering uncertainty-driven flows but may decline when responding to level shocks.
Paper · Appendix · CEPR · NBER
Policy references: Bank of Canada Governor’s speech · World Economic Outlook
International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions
With Fabio Ghironi and Daisoon Kim
Journal of Monetary Economics, 154, 103810 (2025)
A dynamic international trade and macro model that shows sanctions reshape production and exchange rate dynamics, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage and important transitional effects that long-run comparisons miss.
Media coverage: Kommersant
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects
With Fabio Ghironi and Daisoon Kim
IMF Economic Review, 72, 611–652 (2024)
A three-region model shows that sanctions reduce efficiency and welfare in the targeted economy, while broader international participation strengthens their impact at a cost to countries joining the sanctions.
Paper · Bank of Canada Working Paper
Media coverage: Berliner Zeitung
News-Driven International Credit Cycles
Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103372 (2021)
A two-country model links unfulfilled optimism to credit misallocation and cross-border borrowing cycles, and finds that liquidity injections mitigate the resulting downturn more effectively than purchases of non-traded-sector assets.
Paper · Appendix · Bank of Canada Working Paper
Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconomic Interdependence
Journal of Monetary Economics, 115, 265–278 (2020)
A banking model shows how cross-border funding frictions can redirect credit toward non-traded sectors and widen current account deficits, while common central bank interventions mitigate downturns following sudden stops.
Paper · Appendix · ESRB Working Paper
Awards: European Economic Association Young Economist Award · 48th Money, Macro and Finance Conference Best Paper Award · ESRB Ieke van den Burg Award shortlist
Coverage: Liberty Street Economics · e-axes — 360 Econ View
Monetary Policy under Network-Level Bottlenecks
With Nick Sander, Sihwan Yang, and Sebastian Wende
A production-network model shows that temporary sectoral bottlenecks steepen the Phillips curve and create trade-offs between stability during and after constraints bind, while coordinated monetary tightening reduces inflation spillovers across regions.
Media coverage: The Economist
Related policy work: World Economic Outlook
Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia
With Husnu Dalgic
Dollar invoicing predicts exposure to currency risk empirically, while a small-open-economy model shows that dollar pricing and dollar liabilities jointly make depreciation recessionary and raise the currency risk together with risk-adjusted neutral interest rate.
Paper · Appendix · IMF Working Paper
A Silver Lining in the Silver Economy: Macroeconomic Implications of Healthy Aging
With Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, and Diaa Noureldin
Model simulations suggest that healthy-aging trends could add about 0.4 percentage point to annual global GDP growth over 2025–2050, partly offsetting the economic drag from population aging.
Media coverage: Financial Times · Freakonomics
Related policy work: World Economic Outlook
Cost-of-Living Crises: A Cross-Country Approach
With Marijn Bolhuis, Braulio Britos, Bertrand Gruss, Chiara Maggi, and Sihwan Yang
In preparation for NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2027
International Economic Sanctions and Monetary Policy
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Sangwoo Park
Monetary Transmission Mechanism
With Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Gee Hee Hong
Monetary Policy, Trade, and Commodity Price Fluctuations
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Larry Schembri
War and Macro
With Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, and Jiyoung Lee
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Ambiguity
With Burçin Kısacıkoğlu
Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim
With Deniz Igan and Diaa Noureldin
World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1, October 2025
The Rise of the Silver Economy: Global Implications of Population Aging
With Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, and Diaa Noureldin
World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, April 2025
The Great Tightening: Insights from the Recent Inflation Episode
With Jorge Alvarez, Emine Boz, Thomas Kroen, Alberto Musso, Nicholas Sander, Sebastian Wende, and Sihwan Yang
World Economic Outlook, Chapter 2, October 2024
Steady But Slow: Resilience Amid Divergence
With Hippolyte Balima, Daniel Leigh, and Jean-Marc Natal
World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1, April 2024
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present, and Future. A Thematic Review
With Matteo Cacciatore and Bruno Feunou
Staff Discussion Paper, Bank of Canada, April 2024
Multilateralism During Economic Warfare
In B. Coulibaly and H. Kharas (eds.), Climate, Global Governance, and Technology
Special Report, Brookings Institution, October 2023
Potential Output and the Neutral Rate in Canada: 2023 Assessment
With Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Youngmin Park, and Temel Taskin
Staff Analytical Note 2023-6, Bank of Canada, May 2023
Yield Curve Control
With Matteo Cacciatore
CEA Inquiry, Bank of Canada, July 2020
The Growth Debate Redux
In K. Derviş and H. Kharas (eds.), Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit
Brookings Institution Press, November 2014
Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Reflections on the Global Economy
With Izak Atiyas and Fuat Keyman
In K. Derviş and H. Kharas (eds.), Think Tank 20: The G-20 and Central Banks in the New World of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Brookings Institution Press, August 2013
International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions
With Fabio Ghironi and Daisoon Kim
VoxEU, October 2024
Fiscal Multipliers
With Domenico Lombardi
Longitude, pp. 76–78, March 2013
Buying Time by Buying Bonds
With Kemal Derviş and Karim Foda
Brookings Up Front, September 2012
Unemployment Risk, Liquidity Traps, and Monetary Policy
By Dario Bonciani and Joonseok Oh
37th Symposium on Money, Banking and Finance, Banque de France, 2021 · Slides
Monetary Policy Transmission in the New Model for France of Banque de France
By Lemoine et al.
Central Bank Modelling Workshop, Central Bank of Armenia, 2019 · Slides
Sovereign Default in a Monetary Union
By Sergio de Ferra and Federica Romei
CEPR ESSIM, Tarragona, 2019 · Slides
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest
By Philippe Andrade, Jordi Galí, Hervé Le Bihan, and Julien Matheron
Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics Conference, IAB, Nuremberg, 2019 · Slides
Volatility Risk Pass-Through
By Ric Colacito, Max Croce, Yang Liu, and Ivan Shaliastovich
NBP–Bank of Lithuania–CEBRA–CEPR Conference on International Spillovers, Warsaw, 2018 · Slides
Monetary Policy Volatility Shocks in Brazil
By Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo
XX Annual Inflation Targeting Conference, Banco Central do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, 2018 · Slides
Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel
By Robert Kollmann
CEPR Annual International Macro and Finance Meeting, Zurich, 2017 · Slides
Financial Heterogeneity and Central Bank Non-Standard Measures in a Monetary Union
By Matthieu Darracq Pariès and Niki Papadopoulou
1st Research Conference of the CEPR Network on Macro Modelling and Model Comparison, Frankfurt, 2017 · Slides
When Markets Sneeze, the Fed Gets Bold: The Collateral Framework as an Unconventional Policy Tool
By Osman Abbasoglu, Salih Fendoglu, Birol Kanik, and Yasin Mimir
10th Winter Workshop in Economics, Istanbul, 2016 · Slides