"Technological Change, Firm Heterogeneity and Wage Inequality" with Adrian Lerche, Uta Schönberg and Jeanne Tschopp (updated: December 2025) [Link to earlier IZA Working Paper Version]. Revise and Resubmit, Economic Journal.
We argue that skill-biased technological change not only affects wage gaps between skill groups but also increases wage inequality within skill groups across workers in different workplaces. Building on a heterogeneous firm framework with labor market frictions, we show that an industry-wide skill-biased technological change shock will increase between-firm wage inequality within the industry through three main channels: increased employment concentration in more productive firms, increased wage dispersion between firms for workers of the same skill type, and increased segregation and sorting of skilled workers in more productive firms. Using rich, matched employer-employee administrative data from Germany, we provide empirical evidence of establishment-level patterns consistent with the model's predictions. We further document that industries with more exposure to technological change exhibit particularly pronounced patterns along the dimensions highlighted by the model.
"Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States" with Alena Bičáková, Kelly Foley, Jacopo Mazza and Peter McHenry (updated: October 2025) [Working Paper Versions: IZA, CLEF]. Revise and Resubmit, Economics of Education Review.
Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement for 1977-2023, we explore two important, yet understudied facets of the pattern of countercyclical post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. First, we show that economic downturns are associated with higher enrollment probabilities at both 2- and 4-year colleges among young men, but only at 2-year institutions among young women. Second, we show that the overall increase in enrollment propensities during downturns is primarily driven by persistence (i.e., changes in enrollment among individuals with prior PSE participation), rather than matriculation (i.e., new enrollments). However, higher unemployment rates increase matriculation probabilities at 2-year colleges among 18-year-old men and women, and at 4-year colleges among individuals in their early 20s. Our findings improve our understanding of the dimensions along which aggregate economic fluctuations induce changes in human capital acquisition.
"Firm Organization and Worker Outcomes: The Role of Occupational Specialization" with Diego Dabed, Ana Oliveira and Anna Salomons (updated: September 2025) [Link to earlier CLEF Working Paper Version] (Previously circulated as "Fissured Firms and Worker Outcomes")
Using matched employer-employee data from Portugal, we show that firms differ starkly in their occupational employment composition, even within detailed industries, with some firms employing workers across a broad range of occupations and others being much more specialized. These differences are robustly predictive of wages: a worker employed in an occupationally-specialized firm earns less than that same worker employed in a less specialized firm. The wage penalty for working in an occupationally-specialized firm is observed across occupations and industries of all skill levels, and is distinct from the penalty associated with working in a firm with fewer organizational layers. Specialization helps account for the role of firms in inequality, as specialization is strongly negatively related to estimated AKM firm fixed effects. Around 50-60% of the wage penalty from specialization is explained by differences in firm productivity. Specialized firms, however, also engage in lower rates of rent-sharing conditional on productivity, accounting for up to one-quarter of the difference in wage premia between high- and low-specialization firms. Finally, we show that being employed in a specialized firm is also associated with worse longer-term career outcomes for workers.
"The Occupational Ladder: Implications for Life-Cycle Wage Dynamics" with Henry E. Siu and Kelly Foley (updated: December 2025)
Some occupations pay higher wages than others, even conditional on worker characteristics, implying that occupations can be ranked on a ladder. We develop a simple decomposition to study the role this occupational ladder plays in average wage growth and in the fanning out of wages over the life cycle. We present three main findings. First, the distribution of employment shifts towards higher-paying occupations as workers gain experience. This contributes modestly to average life-cycle wage growth, with greatest impact in early career. Second, this upward movement in the occupational employment distribution is not accompanied by increasing dispersion; thus, the occupational ladder does not directly contribute to the fanning out of wages. Third, early-career workers who are well-positioned on the occupational ladder tend to earn wages far below the occupational average. However, by mid-career, workers’ relative wages within occupations (their position on the job ladder) no longer depend on their occupation. This change in the covariance between individuals' positions on the job and occupational ladders is a major contributor to the fanning out of wages over workers’ careers.
"Enrolling in Bad Times: College Persistence and Labor Market Outcomes" with Alena Bičáková, Kelly Foley, Jacopo Mazza and Peter McHenry (uploaded: October 2022)
Using administrative data covering the universe of student enrollments in public universities in Canada since 2009, we show that individuals who start an undergraduate degree when unemployment is high are less likely to graduate within five years. Compositional changes along observable student characteristics including gender, age at enrollment, and parental income do not account for this result, nor does sorting across universities or fields of study. While a simple model of negative selection into university during downturns can account for the decline in graduation rates, it would imply that post-schooling earnings should be lower among non-completers who enroll during high unemployment periods compared to those who enroll when unemployment is lower. Using a panel of administrative tax data linked to the student enrollment records, we show that higher unemployment rates at enrollment are not associated with lower annual earnings among non-completers. A model that features heterogeneity in the idiosyncratic costs of post-secondary education can rationalize this result.
"Product Market Concentration, Wage Inequality and Worker Sorting" with Leyla Gilgen and Jeanne Tschopp (uploaded: September 2023)
Product markets have become increasingly dominated by a smaller number of firms with high market shares. At the same time, wage dispersion between firms has been increasing. In this paper, we show that product market concentration is associated with higher wage dispersion between firms within industries. Using rich administrative data from France covering the near-universe of workers and firms over the period 2009-2019, we find a positive and statistically significant correlation between sectoral concentration and different measures of between-firm wage inequality. The relationship is driven by (i) increased sorting of workers in high-paying occupations towards more productive firms within industries, and (ii) higher wage differentials between more and less productive firms in more concentrated industries, even conditional on their workers' occupations. In a model that features wage heterogeneity between firms, a shock to consumer price sensitivity - which has been posited by Autor et al. (2020) as a driver of the rise in product market concentration - generates predictions that are consistent with the empirical patterns that we document.
"Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the United States and Mexico" with Diego M. Morris, Journal of Human Capital, Summer 2025, Vol. 19, No. 2: 346-382.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: UNU-WIDER]
"Rising Concentration and Wage Inequality" with Jeanne Tschopp, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, April 2024, Vol. 126, Issue 2: 320-354.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: IZA]
Media coverage: Ökonomenstimme (in German)
"Make Your Own Luck: The Wage Gains from Starting College in a Bad Economy" with Alena Bičáková and Jacopo Mazza, Labour Economics, October 2023, Vol. 84, Article 102411.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: IZA]
"The Growing Importance of Social Tasks in High-Paying Occupations: Implications for Sorting" with Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu, Journal of Human Resources, September 2023, Vol. 58, Issue 5: 1429-1451. (Previously circulated as "The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market")
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Versions: NBER, CEPR]
Media coverage: The Wall Street Journal (and picked up by Fortune), The Guardian, Quartz, The Register, Bloomberg, Bloomberg View, Financial Post, Livemint, Calcalist (in Hebrew), Capoverso (in Italian), and The Sydney Morning Herald.
"Distributional Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act" with Eliza Forsythe, Journal of Economic Inequality, June 2023, Vol. 21, Issue 2: 325-349. (Previously circulated as "Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act on Earnings and Inequality")
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Working Paper Versions: IZA, CLEF]
Media coverage: Fox Business. Link to summary on EconoFact.
Companion Paper: "Unemployment Insurance Recipiency During the Covid-19 Pandemic", by Eliza Forsythe
"Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic" with Eliza Forsythe, ILR Review, January 2023, Vol. 76, Issue 1: 30-55.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Working Paper Versions: Upjohn Institute, CLEF]
Cited in the 2025 Economic Report of the President.
Media coverage: CardRates.com.
"Between-Group Inequality May Decline Despite a Rising Skill Premium" with Imran Aziz, Labour Economics, October 2021, Vol. 72, Article 102063.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: IZA]
"Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates" with Alena Bičáková and Jacopo Mazza, Economic Journal, August 2021, Vol. 131, Issue 638: 2383-2412.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: IZA]
Link to blog post on LSE Business Review. Link to CLEF Webinar Presentation.
"Do Technological Advances Reduce the Gender Wage Gap?" with Ana Oliveira and Anna Salomons, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Winter 2020, Vol. 36, Issue 4: 903-924.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Minor Corrections to Figures and Tables] [Replication Package]
"The Dynamics of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach" with Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda and Henry E. Siu, Labour Economics, August 2020, Vol. 65, Article 101823. Special Issue on "Technology and the Labour Market".
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Replication Package] [Earlier Working Paper Version: NBER]
Media coverage: The New York Times, engadget, fivethirtyeight, The Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and The Globe and Mail. Link to summary on VoxEU.
"Delving into the Demand Side: Changes in Workplace Specialization and Job Polarization" with Andrea Salvatori, Labour Economics, April 2019, Vol. 57: 164-176. (Previously circulated as "Task Specialization within Establishments and the Decline of Routine Employment")
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Working Paper Version: IZA]
"The Individual-Level Patterns Underlying the Decline of Routine Jobs", Travail et Emploi, Special Issue on Polarization(s) in Labor Markets, 2019, Vol. 157: 45-66.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)]
"The Costs of Occupational Mobility: An Aggregate Analysis" with Giovanni Gallipoli, Journal of the European Economic Association, April 2018, Vol. 16, No. 2: 275-315.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Replication Package]
"Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?" with Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu, Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2017, Vol. 91: 69-87.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Earlier Working Paper Version: NBER]
Media coverage: Financial Sense Podcast, Associated Press 1, Associated Press 2 (and picked up by The Washington Post, CBS News, and others), Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal
"Where Have the Middle-Wage Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization using Panel Data", Journal of Labor Economics, January 2016, Vol. 34, No. 1: 63-105.
[Publication] [Preprint (Ungated)] [Online Appendix] [Replication Package]
Media coverage: de Volkskrant
"Changes in the Return to Skills and the Variance of Unobserved Ability" with Manuel Alejandro Hidalgo (updated: December 2015)
Changes in the variance of wages among groups of workers with common observable characteristics are often interpreted as reflecting changes in the return to unobservable skills. This interpretation relies on the crucial and highly restrictive assumption that the variance of these unobservable skills remains constant over time. We propose a new identification strategy which relaxes this assumption using longitudinal data, and requires only two observations per individual. Using data from the Current Population Survey's Merged Outgoing Rotation Group sample over the period 1982-2012, we find that relaxing the assumption of constant within-group skill variance is crucial. Contrary to the conclusion drawn when this assumption is imposed, we find that the return to skills has fallen over our sample period, and that increases in within-group wage inequality are driven by increases in the dispersion of unobserved skills, particularly among college graduates.