Research

Most Recent Unpublished Working Papers

The Inflation Surge of the 2020: The Role of Monetary Policy (with Donald Kohn), August 2023

It’s Baaack: The Inflation Surge of 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve (with Pierpaolo Benignio), April, 2023.

Mr. Keynes and the Classics; A Suggested Reinterpretation (with Cosimo Petracchi, September 2021)

New Overview Article (preliminary, comments welcome!): A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and the Great Recession (with Sergey K. Egiev), R&R Journal of Economic Literature. This version: January 2020,

Continuing education lecture at American Economics Association Meeting in San Diego 2020 that covers this article is linked here.

          Published and Forthcoming Articles

• Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel (with Ragnar Juelsrud, Lawrence H. Summers and Ella G. Wold), Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

• Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Model of Quantitative Easing (with Saroj Bhattarai and Bulat Gafarov), Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming

• Kaldor's and Piketty's Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States (with Jakob Robbins and Ella Getz Wold), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 124, November 2021. Talk

• A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration (with Sergey K. Egiev Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer and Luca Riva, September 2020), Review of Economic Dynamics, Volume 41, July 2021, issue in honor of the memory of Alejandro Justiniano.

  • For codes and programs click here.

• Medium-Term Money Neutrality and the Effective Lower Bound (with Marc Giannoni), 50 year anniversity issue of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 52, Issue 52, February 2021

• Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Pierpaolo Benigno and Federica Romei), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol 12, no. 2, April 2020.

• Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation (with Manuel Lancastre and Lawrence H. Summers), American Economic Review - Insights, Vol. 1, No 3, December 2019.   

• Log-linear approximation versus an exact solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian model (with Sanjay Singh), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Controls, Vol. 105, August 2019.| Local updated copy (pdf).

• A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation (with Neil R. Mehrotra and Jacob Robbins), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 11 No. 1, January 2019| Local updated copy (pdf).

• Sticky Prices Versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes? (with Vaishali Garga), Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol 31, January 2019.| Local updated copy (pdf).

• Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing (Redux)? (with Saroj Bhattarai and Raphael Schoenle), Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 100(C), December 2018.|Local updated copy (pdf). 

• The Rise, Fall, and Resurrection of Iceland: A Postmortem Analysis of the 2008 Financial Crisis, (with Sigríður Benediktsdóttir and Eggert Þórarinsson), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2017.| Local copy (pdf).

• The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities (with Marco Del Negro, Andrea Ferrero, and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki), American Economic Review,  107, pp. 824-857, March 2017.| Local copy (pdf). 

• A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation (with Neil Mehrotra, Sanjay Singh, and Lawrence Summers, June 2016), IMF Economic Review, Vol. 64(4), pp. 581-634. December 2016.| Local copy (pdf).

• Bernanke's No-arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap? (with Kevin Proulx), in M. Woodford, editor, Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World , Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 2016.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy (with Neil Mehrotra and Lawrence Summers), American Economic Review, P&P, 106(5): 503-507, May 2016.|Local copy (pdf). 

• Can Structural Reforms Help Europe? (with Andrea Ferrero and Andrea Raffo), Journal of Monetary Economics, 61, January 2014, pp. 2-22.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Deficits, Public Debt Dynamics and Tax and Spending Multipliers (with Matthew Denes and Sophia Gilbukh), Economic Journal, 123 (566), 133-163, 2013.| Local copy (pdf).

• Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach (with Paul Krugman), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3): 1469-1513, August 2012.|Local copy (pdf).| Web Appendix.

• Was the New Deal Contractionary?, American Economic Review, 102(1): 524-555, February 2012. Web Appendix

• Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination in J. Gali, editor, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, October 2010.| Local copy (pdf). 

• What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?, NBER Macroeconomic Annual, 2010.| Local copy (pdf). 

• A Political Agency Theory of Central Bank Independence (with Eric Le Borgne), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 42, No. 4, June 2010| Local copy (pdf).

• Great Expectations and the End of the Depression, American Economic Review, 2008: 90(4).| Local copy (pdf).

• The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis (with Benjamin Pugsley), Monetary and Economic Studies, 24(S-1), December 2006.| Local copy (pdf).

• The Deflation Bias and Committing to being Irresponsible, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (2), 2006.| Local copy (pdf). |Extended with Appendix

• Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap (with Michael Woodford), NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004. | Local copy (pdf). 

• Policy Options in a Liquidity trap (with Michael Woodford), American Economic Review, P&P, 2004: 94(2).| Local copy (pdf).

• The Zero Interest-Rate Bound and Optimal Monetary Policy (with Michael Woodford), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003:1. Local copy (pdf).

Published Commentaries, Surveys

• The Liquidity Trap, the New Palgrave Dictionary in Economics, 2cond edition.| Local copy (pdf).

• Comment on Macroeconomic Policy in the European Monetary Union, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Comment on Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Low Inflation Economy with Learning, Bank of Korea Annual Conference Volume, 2006.| Local copy (pdf).

• A Reply to Steven Horwitz Commentary on “Great Expectations and the End of the Depression, Economic Journal Watch, September, 2010.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Commentary on Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy by A. Berentsen and C. Waller, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, October 2011, vol 43., p. 581-588.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Commentary on Optimal Stabilization Policy by G. Mankiw and M. Winzierl, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, spring 2011.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Commentary on How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting be and Still Work? by Kenneth N. Kuttner and Adam S Posen, International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 9, Supplement 1, January 2012.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Comment on Fiscal Policy as a Stabilization Tool by Antonias Fatas and Ilian Mihov, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 12, Issue 3.| Local copy (pdf). 

• Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and the World Crisis (prepared for Berlin symposium "Government Debt in Democracies: Causes, Effects, and Limits"), German Economic Review, Volumue 15, Issue 2, pages 225-242, May 2014.| Local copy (pdf).

• Comment on "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2016, Volume 31, 2016.| Local copy (pdf).

• Comment on Sources and Mechanism of Stagnation and Impaired Growth in Advanced Economies by Robert Hall, ECB Sintra Forum on Central Banking, June 2017.| Local copy (pdf).

• Commentary Slowing Business Dynamics by Akcigit and Ates, Jackson Hole Conference, September 2020.

Other Material, Older Unpublished Working Papers, Notes, etc

• A Model of Secular Stagnation (with Neil Mehrotra, October 2014).

• A Comment on Casey Mullingan's test of the Paradox of Toil, preliminary note, May 2010.

• The Paradox of Toil (February 2010).

• A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Tax and Spending Multipliers, with Matthew Denes, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, No. 403, November 2009.

• Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model with Repeated Simultaneous Play (with Eric T. Swanson), mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2008.

• Does Excess Liquidity Pose a Threat in Japan?, (with Jonathan Ostry), IMF Policy Discussion Paper PDP/05/5, April 2005.

•  Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy and the Liquidity Trap, Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University, 2004.

• How to Fight Deflation at Zero Nominal Interest Rates: Committing to Being Irresponsible, IMF Working Paper WP/03/64, May 2003.

• Committing to Being Irresponsible: Deficit Spending to Escape a Liquidity Trap, mimeo, Princeton University, November 2001.

• Real Government Spending in a Liquidity Trap, mimeo, Princeton University, November 2001.

Blog Commentaries

• Negative Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel, (with Lawrence Summers) Vox Column, January 2019.

• Monetary policy with negative nominal interest rates, (with Ragnar Juelsrud and Ella Getz Wold) VOX Column, January 2018. 

• To accomodate or not: The Federal Reserve's new normal, (with Neil Mehrotra and Jacob A. Robbins), VOX Column, April 2017.

• Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured, (with Lawrence Summers) VOX Column, July 2016.

• A model of secular stagnation, (with Neil Mehrotra) VOX Column, August 2014.

• Commodity Prices and the Mistake of 1937: Would Modern Economists Make the Same Mistake?, Liberty Street Economics Blog, June 2011.

        Some old (declassified) policy work

• FOMC briefing on "Federal Reserve experiences with Very Low Interest Rates," with Mark Carlson and Elmar Mertens, December 5th, 2008.

• Inflation budgeting proposal from fall 2010 Blackbook recently declassified under the Freedom of Information Act by Bloomberg News.

Talks:

ECB Talk, BPEA, ME, Kaldor, Israel

Luiss, 1,2,3,4,5,6