Policy Work

Macro Notes

• Lessons from Past Monetary Easing Cycles (FEDS Note, May 2024)

  • • Cited in a speech from FRB Governor.

• Why is the U.S. GDP recovering faster than other advanced economies? (FEDS Note, May 2024)

  • • Cited in the Financial Times, in the New York Times, in the Wall Street Journal, and in a speech from FRB Governor.

• Assessing China's Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance (FEDS Note, February 2024)

• Assessing China’s efforts to increase self-reliance (VoxEU, January 2024)

• An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies (FEDS Note, December 2023).

  • • Cited in the New York Times and in the April 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook.

• Accumulated savings during the pandemic: An international comparison with historical perspective (VoxEU, July 2023)

  • • Cited in the October 2023 IMF World Economic Outlook.

• Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective (FEDS Note, June 2023).

  • • Addendum with additional results, focused on US' Excess Savings (July 2023)

• Real GDP and Productivity Measurement: What Do Macro Data Capture? (FEDS Note, May 2023).

• Real value-added in national accounts and in theory: A disconnect (VoxEU column, May 2023).

• Fiscal policy and excess inflation during Covid-19: a cross-country view (FEDS Note, July 2022).

• Demand–supply imbalance during the Covid-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy (VoxEU column, March 2022).

• Forward Looking Exporters (FEDS Note, October 2021).

Global Value Chains

• Regional Trade Agreements with Global Value Chains (FEDS Note, January 2021).

• How Global Value Chains Change the Trade-Currency Relationship (FEDS Note, February 2020).

• Increasing Business Cycles Synchronization: The Role of Global Value Chains, Market Power & Extensive Margin Adjustments  (FEDS Note, December 2019).

• World Development Report 2020 Background Papers

  • • Trade, Global Value Chains and GDP Comovemement: An Empirical Investigation (with Alexandre Gaillard)

    • Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains (with Sebastian Franco-Bedoya)

    • An Empirical Investigation of Trade Diversion and Global Value Chains (with Julien Maire and Guillaume Sublet)

• Increasing business cycle synchronization: The role of global value chains, market power and extensive margin adjustments (VoxEU, September 2019).

• The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy (ECB Occasional Paper, May 2019).

• Global value chains and export elasticities: All linkages matter (VoxEU column, October 2018).

• Could complex value chains help explain lower export elasticities? (World Bank Blog, August 2018).

• The impact of global value chains on the macroeconomic analysis of the euro area (ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 8, December 2017 (contributor)).

Belt and Road Initiative (World Bank Report on the BRI, published in June 2019)

• Common transport infrastructure: Welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (VoxEU Column, July 2019)

• How the Belt and Road Initiative could reduce trade costs (VoxEU column, November 2018)

• The Growth and Welfare Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on East Asia Pacific Countries (MTI Practice Note #4, October 2018)

• How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? (World Bank Blog, October 2018)

• The Growth and Welfare Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (Box I.C.2. in the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2018)

Middle East and North Africa Economies

• A New Economy for the Middle East and North Africa (Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018)

• What Kenya’s mobile money success could mean for the Arab world (World Bank Blog, October 2018)

• Promoting a New Economy for the Middle East and North Africa (World Bank, June 2019 -- Edited by Rabah Arezki, Ferid Belhaj and Parmesh Shah) Chapter on Financing the New Economy in the Middle East and North Africa.